NBA Mock Draft 2012: Andre Drummond and First-Rounders with Most Bust Potential

Upside. Potential. High ceiling.

These are all buzz words you'll hear bandied about by legions of talking heads as the 2012 NBA draft draws nearer.

They're also code for "risky" and "bust"—the sure signs of a prospect with plenty of room for improvement but no guarantee that he'll ever so much as sniff the lofty expectations aspired to his draft position.

As long as this crop is on talent, it may well be even longer on likely failures, particularly in the first round.

1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

He's big, he's long, he's athletic, he's smart and he has a great attitude. Pencil in Anthony Davis for superstardom...like, now.

2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

Ditto for MKG, especially as John Wall's No. 1 wingman.

3. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Thomas Robinson doesn't have as a high a ceiling as some, but the Kansas standout still has some rough edges to smooth out. More importantly, Robinson has the physique and the hustle to carve out a niche for himself in the meantime.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Put Bradley Beal next to Kyrie Irving, and the Cavs may well have themselves the best backcourt in basketball within a few short years.

5. Portland Trail Blazers (via Nets): Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut

Is there any more nausea-inducing combination than the Trail Blazers and a young big man oozing with talent? Portland's past is fraught with the failure of high-potential pivots, from Bill Walton to Sam Bowie to Greg Oden.

Not that Andre Drummond would necessarily be doomed to follow in such treacherous footsteps but, well, if you can see a train wreck coming, don't you have at least some responsibility to tell those in danger to get out of the way?

Drummond is a legit 6'10" and 270 pounds, loaded with the sort of size and potential to rival Anthony Davis as the best prospect in this class.

Trouble is, Drummond was something of a disappointment at UConn this season, demonstrating an all-too-common lack of focus and commitment to the game of basketball. Whether that was merely the function of youthful immaturity and the turbulent circumstances surrounding him in Storrs or a harbinger of deeper problems remains to be seen.

But if there's any team whose history would portend the worst possible outcome, it's the Blazers. 

6. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Expectations might also be the biggest issue at hand for Harrison Barnes. He arrived at North Carolina two years ago as the top prep player in the country. He's an athletic swingman who was anointed the "next Michael Jordan" before he ever set foot on campus.

Barnes has since been branded a bust, despite leading the Tar Heels in scoring during each of his two seasons in Chapel Hill. He has taken heat for being too passive, especially in the biggest games on the grandest stages (see: Elite Eight, 2012).

But to ignore Barnes simply because he's had some bad games would be to overlook a kid who's a solid athlete with a smooth jump shot, a good head on his shoulders and the ability to be a lockdown perimeter defender. He could be just what the calamitous Kings need.

Or, he could crumble under pressure and prove to be little more than a middling role player.

7. Toronto Raptors: Cody Zeller, C, Indiana

The Raptors would like nothing more than for Cody Zeller and Jonas Valanciunas to (finally and mercifully) render Andrea Bargnani obsolete.

8. Detroit Pistons: Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

Perry Jones III might well be considered a taller and more athletic version of Harrison Barnes—good kid and uber-talented, but just doesn't seem to bring it consistently. Few can match the inside-out versatility of PJ3 who, at 6'11" and 235 pounds, can play in the post and shoot from the perimeter.

Of course, that sort of all-around ability can be as much a curse as a blessing. Jones' ability to hit jumpers also gives him cause to float out toward the three-point line and simply wait for the ball to come to him, rather than asserting himself.

Because he certainly can whenever he pleases.

In that way, PJ3 has the potential to be the best and the worst of Lamar Odom, though playing amidst a losing culture in Detroit wouldn't seem to be all that helpful to Jones' long-term career prospects. 

9. Utah Jazz (via Warriors): Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

If you're the Jazz and you have a so-so combo guard like Devin Harris running the point, why not replace him with a younger and potentially more impactful one in Damian Lillard?

10. New Orleans Hornets (via Timberwolves): Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

Kendall Marshall is no Chris Paul, but he's far and away the best pure point guard in this draft class and will make the Hornets better from day one.

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut

The retirement of Brandon Roy won't sting quite as much once Jeremy Lamb comes into the picture.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina

The young Mr. McAdoo has yet to decide whether he'll stay or go, though Milwaukee probably wouldn't mind adding him to the mix, unproven or not.

13. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

If Steve Nash stays, the Suns will need another player who can keep up on the break and shoot from the perimeter. If Nash goes, they'll be in search of another playmaker to handle the ball and control the game.

Either way, Austin Rivers should be on Phoenix's radar.

14. Utah Jazz: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

It'd be easy to compare Jared Sullinger to Kevin Love and assume that the former will eventually have the success that the latter is currently enjoying. After all, both came into the NBA as skilled-but-undersized power forwards who play below the rim, know how to throw around their weight and have range beyond the three-point line.

To say that too readily, though, would be something of a disservice to Love, who was stronger and more versatile in the post at Sullinger's age. Love has emerged as the best power forward in the world—not because of some natural progression of his born ability, but because he has put in tremendous effort to develop his game and improve his body.

That's not to say that Sullinger won't do the same. Rather, Sullinger still has a long way to go before he can so much as sniff Love's jock.

Whether he's given the opportunity to get to that point in Utah, playing behind Al Jefferson, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and Paul Millsap, is another issue entirely.

15. Houston Rockets (via Knicks): Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

The Rockets go back-to-back to fill their frontcourt, first with the skilled, Pau-Gasol-like center GM Daryl Morey has been seeking in Tyler Zeller...

16. Houston Rockets: John Henson, PF, North Carolina

...and then with a defensive stopper in Zeller's Carolina teammate, John Henson. At long last, Houston won't have a problem in the middle.

17. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG, Washington

The 76ers need shooting and, well, Terrence Ross loves to jack 'em up from distance.

18. Denver Nuggets: Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky

Terrence Jones is just the sort of versatile athlete who should thrive in Denver's up-and-down style.

19. Dallas Mavericks: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Here we go again. Another gangly seven-footer who's "fluid" but "raw" and doesn't possess any discernible skills, other than the fact that he's tall and long and might be good if a bunch of "ifs" break his way.

Not that Leonard won't be a solid pro eventually, but there's just so much work to be done. He certainly wouldn't have to do too much while playing behind Brendan Haywood and alongside Dirk Nowitzki (and Deron Williams) other than defend and play pick-and-roll basketball.

Still, don't count on Leonard being much more than just another big body with a steady paycheck.

20. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten Jr., PG, Washington

Had enough of Jeff Teague yet? Well, Tony Wroten won't completely erase the Hawks' lingering regret from picking Marvin Williams over Deron Williams and Chris Paul, but he'd certainly represent a solid step in the right direction. 

21. Memphis Grizzlies: Arnett Moultrie, PF/C, Mississippi State

Big body, athletic, lots of great tools, some perimeter skills, slow to develop, blah blah blah. Wake me up in five years when Arnett Moultrie has(n't) done something for the Grizz.

22. Boston Celtics: Royce White, PF, Iowa State

It pains me to label Royce White a bust. He's a tremendous talent with a diverse skill set and plenty of room for growth.

This is not to mention the fact that, at 6'8" and 270 pounds, the Iowa State star is an absolute specimen; a freight train capable of handling the ball, driving into the paint, banging in the post and just about everything in between.

Unfortunately, White will have to fight through a crippling anxiety disorder every night just to get to the arena, much less thrive on the court and improve under pressure. White has long had an intense fear of flying and can be overwhelmed by his illness at any given moment.

Here's hoping a "tough love" coach like Doc Rivers will be able to get through to White and foster an environment in which his troubled talent can thrive.

23. Orlando Magic: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

Whatever the Magic decide to do with Dwight Howard, they'll need another big body to help out up front.

24. Boston Celtics (via Clippers): Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Can the Celtics handle drafting two head cases in the same year? They're about to find out...

25. Indiana Pacers: Mason Plumlee, PF, Duke

What better way to commemorate the retirement of Jeff Foster than to draft a kid who plays just like him? It'll be like Foster never left!

26. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Lakers): Jeffery Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

The Cavs would be wise to surround Kyrie Irving with as many athletic perimeter players as possible, particularly one with an improving jump shot like Jeff Taylor.

27. Golden State Warriors (via Spurs): Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

Quincy Miller's tall, versatile and hasn't decided if he's staying or going yet. The Warriors will like him at small forward just the same.

28. Miami Heat: Draymond Green, PF, Michigan State

Draymond Green would be the perfect glue guy to solidify Miami's suspect second unit.

29. Oklahoma City Thunder: C.J. McCollum, PG, Lehigh

Backup point guard will still be an issue in OKC next season, with Derek Fisher and Royal Ivey gone to free agency and Eric Maynor's surgically repaired knee still a big question mark. C.J. McCollum should fill in quite nicely alongside Reggie Jackson (not the baseball player).

30. Chicago Bulls: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's 

How could the Bulls be so "Harkless" to deprive Derrick Rose of a point-scoring pal on the perimeter for so long? Perhaps the guilt will force Chicago's front office to make Moe the man at the end of the first round.

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