Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice: Navigating the Injury-Risk American Leaguers

What is the one thing that derails good fantasy teams on their way to championships more than anything else? Getting a girlfriend? Dial-up Internet? Getting a girlfriend on your dial-up internet? All of those are good options, but it is the injury bug. I still contend that in 2006 I lost a championship in a keeper league due to injuries.

You all can recall that was the year that Francisco Liriano was shut down late in the year due to an elbow blowout, Travis Hafner broke a bone in his hand after being hit by a pitch (which I actually was watching, thanks DirecTV!), and Scott Kazmir missed the last month due to I can’t even remember what. My two best pitchers and one of my best hitters (Hafner had 42 HR's to that point) gone for the last month of the season. And I watched my stranglehold on the points league dwindle day by day by day until I ended up finishing second. 

So while injuries can take you down, taking chances on injury prone players can also help you win if the players are actually able to stay healthy (hello Rich Harden of 2008!). It is important to know what you are getting when you draft these players, however, and a competent backup plan at their position is imperative. Here are some American League players who are known to find their way on to the disabled list every single year.

A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees

Did anyone on the Yankees check out that this guy has only two 30-start seasons in his entire career before they committed to him for five seasons? There is no denying the ability or the stuff of Burnett, but the guy finds himself missing starts every season (except when he is up for a new contract) and you should be aware of this too. He is generally pretty good when he is able to take the mound with nearly a strikeout an inning and a mid 3's ERA. Unfortunately, he will miss a month of the season, if not more if his track record is any indication. Just know if you draft Burnett, you will most likely be without him at some point during the year.

J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox

Drew was on his way to his third fairly healthy season by his standard (140 games played) until the usual back and other assorted injuries cost him some time. The guy is an incredible talent, but the inability to stay healthy has probably robbed him of what could have been a Hall of Fame career if he was able to live up to his hype. However, Drew still has value as a fourth or fifth outfielder as he showed when David Ortiz was hurt last year, but if you do take him, be sure that you have an outfielder or two on your bench to put in for Drew’s yearly trip(s) to the DL.

Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians

Do I need to go into the details here? Wood was on the DL 11 times in his first nine seasons, and when he goes, he usually goes for a good long time. He doesn’t usually do the 15-day minimum and come back, sometimes Wood spends months there. However, now with his move to the bullpen, it seems likely that he should cause less wear and tear on his arm and HOPEFULLY he will stay healthier. Wood’s ERA was over 3.00 last season which is bad for a closer, but he did rack up 34 saves and had a ridiculous 84 Ks in just 66 innings. He could be viewed as a top 10 closer, and only injury should take the job away from him. I see Wood having a long leash, and he is a decent pick. However, his history of injury has to be in the back of your mind.

Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels

Due to the lack of depth at the 2B position, fantasy players are constantly looking for some new blood to come through that can help them if they miss out on Utley, Phillips, and Pedroia. A few years ago, Kendrick was the next big thing as he was touted as a batting champion waiting to happen, a guy who could hit .350 in his sleep. In three seasons, he has yet to play more than 92 games in a year, although some of that is due to trips back and forth from the minors. However, he has been injured in each of his first seasons in the minors. He has been delivering a pretty good average, but hasn’t yet hit for any power to speak of. If he can stay healthy, Kendrick could be a nice sleeper for 2009.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

We all know that Liriano returned from Tommy John surgery last year and had quite the roller coaster season. He started the season in April horribly and was sent down to the minors after three starts. It wasn’t until August that he returned and he looked really good most of the time. So, Liriano is a little different than most guys on this list. Obviously, he has a serious injury on his resume, but he should be past it. However, he didn’t finish the season strong and pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery always have a little red flag on them for the first couple of years back in my book.

Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

Not only is he getting older (turns 38 during the season), but also coming off a tough shoulder injury that should really hinder the amount of catching that he does. The Yankees are loaded with guys who are defensive liabilities that need to play DH, but given Posada’s contract he should get the chance to play most days. However, a shoulder injury on a guy approaching 40 can’t be good for his power, and his numbers have been starting to slip. A guy who was once a top five catcher has now fallen down the rankings considerably.

Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners

Another guy who got a big contract and went out and missed half the season, Bedard has only started 30 games once in his career. A solid strikeout artist, Bedard has the chance to be a top 15 pitcher if he is able to stay on the mound. There have been have been a few conflicting report on the exact diagnosis of his shoulder injury, but Bedard was able to avoid surgery. He has to have fallen well down the draft board after his season last year, but if he is able to come back he could represent a steal of a pick. Buyer beware, however.

B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays

Not only will he likely start this season on the disabled list (although that has not been confirmed yet), Upton has yet to play more than 145 games in a year. He showed in last year’s playoffs that he has the talent to be one of the more dynamic speed/power combinations in all of fantasy baseball, but he needs to be able to stay on the field more consistently. He hasn’t had any major injury yet in his career, so he should be out there most of the time but you have to be aware of the fact that Upton generally misses a month or so during the year.

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

Kinsler finally found his way on to EVERYONE’S fantasy radar in 2008, and was thought to be among the top two or three guys at his position.  Kinsler brings pretty good speed and power and plays a position that doesn’t have a ton of good players. I have seen mock drafts that Kinsler is selected in the second round, but that is a little early for my taste. Kinsler should be among the first five guys taken at the second base position, but the guy has averaged 125 games played in his first three seasons so be prepared to be without him for at least a month during the year. However, Kinsler is most likely worth the risk because of his dynamic skills at a shallow position.

As always, your comments and questions (draft strategy, adds/drops, lineup questions) are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.