Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Injury-Prone Players Worth Gambling On

When you're drafting a fantasy baseball team, you need to know about more than just the numbers (though they definitely help). Just as important is a player's history with injuries.

There are a lot of injury-prone players that fantasy owners need to be familiar with every year. Some of them are a little too injury-prone, and not worth drafting at all. Others have high ceilings that make them well worth a gamble.

This list focuses on the latter group. Of all the injury-prone players across the major leagues, there are five in particular who I think are worth the risk of drafting.

5. Joe Mauer, C/1B, Minnesota Twins

Last season was a huge struggle for Joe Mauer. He wasn't quite recovered from offseason knee surgery when the season got underway, and the next thing, you knew he was battling leg weakness. When Mauer was able to play, he wasn't himself.

When you think about it, it's actually kind of impressive that he managed to hit .287.

The general perception of Mauer this season is that there's simply no way he's going to stay healthy, and that he's not going to be worth the trouble even if he does. The guy just can't hit anymore.

Sure he can. Mauer has proved that much this spring, as he's been raking for much of the exhibition season. If he stays healthy, there's no reason to think he won't hit over .300.

What Mauer won't do, however, is hit for power, much to the chagrin of many fantasy owners. I for one think you have to look on the bright side and realize this: Mauer is going to have catcher eligibility no matter how many times he has to play first or DH, and there simply aren't many catchers who are a lock to hit over .300.

A one-category stud is better than a no-category stud, and many catchers are just that.

4. Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves

It seems like Tim Hudson is always coming down with some kind of ache. These days, he's recovering from offseason back surgery, and it has been reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the Braves are hoping he can return around May 1.

In all likelihood, fantasy owners are probably looking at getting 25 or so starts out of Hudson, which obviously puts a cap on his potential win total. Seeing as how Hudson is not a strikeout machine, that limits his fantasy potential.

What we do know about Hudson is that he's going to come back and immediately start inducing ground balls. Those ground balls will help keep his WHIP low, and Hudson has always been able to help himself by not walking too many batters.

So Hudson won't help you in terms of wins or strikeouts, but he's a guy who will help your ERA and your WHIP, and he'll get you the odd win here and there when he comes back. For a guy who can be had late in your draft, he's a steal.

3. Josh Johnson, SP, Miami Marlins

Josh Johnson's arm has a lot of miles on it, and it's been rocked by some significant injuries, too. He had to have Tommy John surgery in 2007, and last year, a shoulder problem ended his season prematurely in mid-May.

When he's on the mound, though, Johnson's stuff rivals that of any other pitcher in the major leagues. He's got an outstanding fastball, and he knows how to use his sharp breaking stuff. Johnson used these things to put together a 2.30 ERA in 2010, and his K/9 that season was over 9.00.

Those are the kinds of numbers fantasy owners are hoping for out of Johnson this season, and the thinking is that Miami's improved offense will lead to more wins. If so, Johnson is going to be a top-five fantasy ace this season.

But will he stay healthy?

Nobody knows. All we know is that Johnson's upside is through the roof, making him well worth a gamble in the low-middle rounds.

2. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Ryan Zimmerman had his toughest season as a professional last year, as he only played in 101 games and hit just .289 with a .443 slugging percentage. He was done in by an abdominal strain in the first half of the season, and it took a long time for him to recover fully.

Zimmerman was much more like himself in the second half of the season, when he hit .306 with eight home runs and 34 RBI. Had he been healthy the whole season, Zimmerman would have put up the numbers of a top-five third baseman.

If Zimmerman stays healthy enough to play in, say, 140 or 150 games this season, we know from what he's done in the past that he's going to hit around .300 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI. He's also likely to score over 100 runs, making him a four-category stud.

Given his injury history, you won't have to use an early-round draft pick on Zimmerman. But by the end of the season, he could be the second- or third-best third baseman in fantasy (behind only super-stud Miguel Cabrera).

1. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers

Here's a word of warning about Josh Hamilton: he's not going to stay healthy to match the career-high of 156 games that he played in 2008.

It's always something with Hamilton. Last year, he had to miss time with a broken arm and we eventually found out that he was playing through a sports hernia. I've heard-tell those things hurt.

The amazing part is that Hamilton managed to be pretty consistent upon returning from his broken arm. He hit 17 home runs from July through September, and he also drove in 58 runs in those three months. He wasn't healthy, but he was hitting.

If I had to guess, I'd say a reasonable expectation for games played for Hamilton this season is right around 130. Various aches and pains will rob him of the other 32.

But in those 130 games, Hamilton will hit well over .300 with about 30 bombs and 100 RBI. And trust me, you'll know when he's hot. It's typically hard to ignore him when he's hitting well.

Nobody is going to draft Hamilton as a No. 1 outfielder, but he'll put up numbers worthy of a No. 1.