2012 NFL Mock Draft: Top Contenders for Offensive Rookie of the Year Honors
Incoming offensive rookies in this year's NFL draft have a hard act to follow.
In 2011, we saw the Carolina Panthers select Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton No. 1 overall. The pick was met with a lot of skepticism, and a lot of people were anticipating Newton to be a complete bust in his rookie year and beyond.
He ended up having arguably the greatest rookie season in NFL history. Naturally, he took home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
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We're probably not going to see a season like that again in 2012 (or any other year), but we are going to see some pretty good rookies on the offensive side of the ball.
In the form of a full first-round mock, here's a few that have a legit shot at earning OROY honors.
1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
With Peyton Manning in Denver now, Andrew Luck will be the starter from day one if the Colts draft him with the first overall selection in the draft.
Because Indy has the look of a rotten team, the general train of thought is that Luck is going to be in for a tough year in his first season with the Colts. He'll be lucky to escape the season in one piece, much less with above-average stats.
I'm more optimistic about Luck's chances. All the stuff that is said about him being a once-in-a-generation talent is true, and he's the one guy in this draft who shouldn't be at all worried about playing with below-average talent. He carved out one of the greatest careers in college history playing with below-average talent at Stanford.
So if the Colts do end up drafting Luck, I'll speak for myself and say that he's going to be near the top of my short list of OROY candidates.
2. Washington Redskins (5-11, trade with St. Louis): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins gave up a lot to get the No. 2 pick, and indications are that they did it just so they could get Robert Griffin III.
Former Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb doesn't think RG3 and the Redskins are a good fit for one another, but there's no denying that RG3 has more talent than any of the quarterbacks who have come through Washington in recent seasons. He has superstar potential.
For me, the big concern is not whether RG3 will fit in with the Shanahans, but whether he's going to have enough talent around him to maximize his potential. The Redskins have made some good moves this offseason, but they still lack elite playmakers who could help RG3 out.
Even still, RG3 would be the starter from day one, and I see him being successful enough to be in the OROY discussion by the end of the year.
3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings might go for Morris Claiborne here, but Matt Kalil still feels like a lock to end up in purple. This is the most natural prospect-team fit in the entire draft.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Exactly what the Browns are going to do with the No. 4 overall pick is subject to a lot of debate. Do they take Trent Richardson, or do they take Ryan Tannehill?
Richardson is the obvious choice. Running back is a pretty big area of need now that Peyton Hillis is out of the picture, and it's a little too soon to give up on Colt McCoy, especially if the other option is another project quarterback like Tannehill.
Richardson is not a project player. He'll be ready to start right away if the Browns draft him, and he has the kind of skills to be a 1,000-yard rusher in his very first season. He'd also be able to help McCoy out in the passing game with both his blocking and receiving skills.
If the Browns take Richardson at No. 4, he's going to be at the very top of my list of candidates for OROY. He's exactly what the Browns need right now.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bucs have brought back Ronde Barber on a team-friendly contract (see CBSSports.com) and the Tampa Bay Times has reported that Aqib Talib likely isn't going anywhere despite his legal troubles. But because neither of those guys are long-term fixtures, the Bucs would be fools to pass on Morris Claiborne at No. 5.
6. St. Louis Rams (2-14, trade with Washington): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
It's been said over and over and over again that Sam Bradford needs a stud wide receiver to throw the ball to.
That's because he does. When the Rams are on the clock at No. 6 on draft day, it's going to be very hard for them to pass on Justin Blackmon.
I don't see a superstar when I look at Blackmon, but I do see a very solid possession receiver who has the potential to pile up catches in bunches. The Rams will have to see about getting Bradford an explosive playmaker down the line, but for now Blackmon would be a good get.
Blackmon's chances of winning the OROY would only get better and better with each reception.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Jags general manager Gene Smith has told the Florida Times-Union that he'll be looking to draft a defensive end this April. That means Quinton Coples is very much in play for the Jags at No. 7 until further notice.
8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
In the last couple of weeks, Ryan Tannehill has gone from being a borderline first-rounder to a surefire top 10 pick. Quarterback is still a big need in Miami, so I highly doubt the Dolphins will pass on Tannehill if they can get him with the No. 8 pick.
But do I see Tannehill contending for Rookie of the Year honors? Heck no. He needs a lot of work, and he might not even start right away.
9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
The Panthers drafted a couple of defensive tackles in last year's draft, but that's no excuse for them to pass on getting a major upgrade in Dontari Poe. He's a beast, and the Panthers could use a beast in the trenches.
10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Demetrius Bell is visiting with different NFL teams (Rotoworld has the complete rundown), and it looks like he's already on his way out of Buffalo. The Bills should be ready to draft his replacement, and Riley Reiff is a guy who should be at the top of their wish list.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Chiefs have made some good moves this offseason, but they still need to add depth to their offensive line. Jonathan Martin is a perfect fit for them, as he comes from a team that ran a run-heavy pro-style offense.
12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
The Seahawks have a big hole in the middle of their offensive line now that Robert Gallery is gone. Even if they still had him, David DeCastro would be a smart pick here.
13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
The Cardinals have some good pieces in their secondary, but their linebacking corps could use a young, talented player. Melvin Ingram would be an easy pick at this spot.
14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Michael Brockers, DL, LSU
The Cowboys have much bigger needs, but I view Michael Brockers as an outstanding value pick here. The Cowboys could groom him at defensive end, and he could be a superstar in a couple years.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
According to ESPN, star offensive tackle Jason Peters has a ruptured Achilles tendon, an injury that requires surgery and months of rehab. Finding an offensive tackle in the draft just became a must, and Mike Adams is a guy who will be in play for them at No. 15.
16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
The Jets could go for a wide receiver or a running back here, but a pass-rusher makes more sense. Courtney Upshaw is a pass-rushing specialist, one who could give Tom Brady nightmares.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from 8-8 Oakland Raiders): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Fort Worth Star-Telegram has reported that the Bengals are going hard after free-agent corner Terence Newman. But until his signature is on the dotted line, cornerback is a need for the Bengals. Even if they get Newman, I wouldn't rule out them drafting Stephon Gilmore.
18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia
The Chargers have needs all over the place, but they shouldn't pass on Cordy Glenn if he's available at No. 18. Their offensive line needs both depth and talent, and Glenn is a guy who could fill in at any spot except center.
19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Brian Urlacher is getting up there in age and his health is starting to fail him. If the Bears have a chance to draft Luke Kuechly as an heir apparent to Urlacher, they shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.
20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The Titans haven't found a replacement for Cortland Finnegan in free agency. Cornerback is at the top of their list of needs heading into the draft, and Dre Kirkpatrick is a guy they shouldn't pass up if he's available at No. 20.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
The Bengals scored when they drafted A.J. Green last year, but adding another wide receiver for Andy Dalton wouldn't be a bad idea.
Especially if Michael Floyd is still on the board. He'd be a great value pick for the Bengals at this spot, and he's a guy who could slide in right next to Green and contribute right away.
I highly doubt Floyd would outperform Green in 2012 or in any season down the line, but he would put up some respectable numbers in his rookie season. If guys like Luck, Griffin and Richardson bomb in their rookie seasons, I could see Floyd making a run at the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
22. Cleveland Browns (from 10-6 Atlanta Falcons): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Adding Richardson would help take pressure off McCoy, but giving him another wide receiver to throw to wouldn't be a bad idea either. Kendall Wright's speed would make him a good guy to have alongside Greg Little, though I highly doubt Wright would put up impressive numbers right away in his rookie season.
23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
The Lions have the makings of a solid defense, but they could use some more talent in their secondary. Adding a guy with questionable character like Janoris Jenkins would be risky, but the Lions are bold enough to do it.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
Unfortunately for the Steelers, they're probably not going to get a much-needed offensive lineman in the first round of the draft. They'll have to settle for finding insurance for their aging defense. Dont'a Hightower is a guy who should be on their radar. He has the look and feel of a classic Steelers linebacker.
25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
Defensive tackle is without a doubt Denver's biggest need in the draft. Fletcher Cox is the best pure 4-3 DT in the draft, so the Broncos shouldn't hesitate to grab him if he's still available at this spot.
26. Houston Texans (10-6): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
I've maintained for months that the Texans need a speedy, field-stretching wide receiver. Kendall Wright would be ideal, but settling for Stephen Hill wouldn't be bad. He's nothing if not speedy.
27. New England Patriots (from 13-3 New Orleans Saints): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
Nick Perry is a guy who could get down on the line or play behind it for Bill Belichick. His versatility would play well in New England's defense, which needs as many able bodies as it can get.
28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
I could see the Packers going for a running back here, but they should be more concerned about their defense than they should be about their offense. Andre Branch is a guy who could be converted into a linebacker to play alongside Clay Matthews, who very much needs a partner in crime.
29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Bobby Massie, OT, Ole Miss
Bobby Massie is a prospect on the rise, according to ESPN's Todd McShay. He might not be a first-rounder yet, but the Ravens are a team that could reach for him on draft day regardless. They need offensive line help.
30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
The 49ers have made some very interesting moves in free agency, but they've neglected the interior of their offensive line. Peter Konz is a center by trade, but the 49ers could take him and convert him into a guard, which is where they're most lacking.
31. New England Patriots (13-3): Kendall Reyes, DT, UConn
Two defensive linemen in a row? Yes, but Kendall Reyes is way more of a pure defensive lineman than Nick Perry is. He'll stay on the line, a place where the Patriots are getting old and weak.
32. New York Giants (9-7): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
Coby Fleener was a star attraction at Stanford's pro day, which is saying something seeing as how Andrew Luck was also in attendance.
Fleener is the only tight end prospect in this draft class who should even sniff the first round. He's an intriguing fit for the Giants because they could use a pass-catching tight end to go alongside star wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.
If Fleener were to end up on the Giants, he could be an instant star with Eli Manning throwing passes to him. If the competition is lacking, I could see Fleener becoming the first tight end to ever win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.


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