Washington Wizards: Could the Kentucky Wildcats Actually Beat the NBA's Worst?

To say that this season has been a disappointment for Wizards' fans would be a gross understatement.

Sure, the playoffs seemed like a long shot, but 11-39 was not supposed to happen—not with John Wall in his second season, not with a shortened and condensed schedule and not with the team donning the old Bullets colors.

But, as bad as the season has been, I was stunned when I learned that former Terps coach, Gary Williams, actually went so far as to say the Kentucky Wildcats could beat the worst teams in the NBA, including our Wizards.

I mean this is Gary Williams, after all, a coach I have tremendous respect for, a man who won a national championship at Maryland.

My reaction was the same as Stan Van Gundy, namely that such a statement is absurd. College kids beating professional players? That is simply preposterous, right?

Then I stopped for a second and thought about it. The 1980 US Olympic hockey team popped into my head. Those were just college kids, and they knocked off the best team in the world when they beat the Soviets.

Could Williams be right? On one night, if all the stars aligned, could the Wildcats actually beat an NBA team like the Wizards?

To explore this further, I decided to match the teams up in a sort of fantasy comparison. Here is what I came up with.

The Backcourt

A natural place to start would be in the backcourt particularly since Wizards' point guard, John Wall, is a Kentucky product.

Wall is having a decent sophomore season but perhaps not as good as many of us had hoped. He is averaging 17.1 points per game, 7.9 assists per game and 4.8 rebounds per game. His points and rebounds are slightly up from last year; his assists are slightly down.

His partner in the backcourt is Jordan Crawford. Crawford is also in his second season, and he has been rather impressive as of late. He is averaging 14 points per game, 2.9 assists per game and 2.5 rebounds per game, which are all a bit up from last year.

The Wildcats' backcourt consists of Doron Lamb, who averages 13.2 points per game, 1.6 assists per game and 2.9 rebounds per game and Marquis Teague, the talented freshman, who is averaging 9.4 points per game, 4.8 assists per game and 2.5 rebounds per game.

To try and come up with some sort of uniform basis to compare these two teams, I averaged together each players points per game, assists per game and rebounds per game to come up with a "score" for the two backcourts.

Washington's backcourt generated a score of 8.2; Kentucky's score was a 5.7.

For the Wildcats to pull this upset, their backcourt would have to be dominant, and the numbers seem to indicate that the Wizards guards would be quite a bit more effective.

Certainly, my score system is flawed and inconclusive, but it is something based on data that you can look at and compare.

In reality, I think Wall and Crawford would be a handful for the Wildcats to deal with, particularly Wall who knows the Kentucky system very well and would likely rip it to shreds.

Advantage: Wizards

The Frontcourt

The Wildcats' frontcourt is rather interesting in that they do not utilize a true center. Kentucky rolls out three forwards, all of whom are very good and difficult to defend.

First, you have Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the 6'7", 232 lbs freshman. He averages 11.8 points per game, 2 assists per game and 7.6 rebounds per game. He would be a handful to deal with.

Then you have Anthony Davis, who at 6'10" and 220 lbs is an absolute beast. He averages 14.3 points per game, 0.9 assists per game and 10 rebounds per game. Davis could easily be considered a true center, and he would certainly create some problems for the Wizards.

Lastly, Kentucky also has Terrence Jones, who at 6'9" and 252 lbs is another talented forward, playing for the Wildcats. Jones is averaging 12.5 points per game, 1.3 assists per game and 7 rebounds per game.

Washington would counter with its center, the recently acquired Nene. At 6'11" and 250 lbs, Nene would probably be matched up against Davis, and that would be a good battle.

Nene is averaging 13.5 points per game, 2 assists per game and 7.6 rebounds per game. The problem is that Nene is a bit injury prone. If he was healthy though, Nene could very well neutralize Davis.

At power forward, the Wizards have Trevor Booker, who is 6'8" and 240 lbs. I think Booker would have a lot of difficulty dealing with either Kidd-Gilchrist or Jones. He is averaging 8.6 points per game, 0.8 assists per game and 6.5 rebounds per game.

Lastly, the Wizards have Chris Singleton at small forward. Singleton is a good player but perhaps not as talented as any of the Wildcats' forwards. At 6'8" and 230 lbs, he is very similar in size to the Kentucky forwards, so that is about as good a matchup as  Kentucky could hope for. Singleton averages 4.5 points per game, .8 assists per game, and 3.4 rebounds per game.

Using the score system I mentioned earlier, the Wizards' frontcourt has a score of 5.3; the Wildcats have a score of 7.5.

Beyond that, however, Kentucky's forwards can equal Washington's as far as size is concerned and have an advantage as far as quickness. I am as surprised as anyone but...

Advantage: Wildcats

The Benches

As far as the benches, the Wizards have the advantage as far as depth is concerned.

For the Wildcats, Darius Miller gets a lot of playing time. The senior guard put his ego aside, accepted a bench role, leads by example and regularly logs as much playing time as the starters. He averages 9.6 points per game, 2.1 assists per game and 2.6 rebounds per game.

After that though, The Wildcat's bench can be a little thin.

Freshman forward Kyle Wiltjer seems to get most of the playing time for a bench player other than Miller. He is a good player but nothing too spectacular, at least not yet. He averages 5.4 points per game, .5 assists per game and 2.0 rebounds per game.

Washington, however, has many more options they can throw at someone. None of these options are All-Star quality, but there is strength in numbers in situations like this.

Roger Mason and Kevin Seraphin seem to log the most bench minutes, although Seraphin has been a starter several times this season. For comparison, Mason averages 4.6 points per game, .7 assists per game and 1 rebound per game while Seraphin averages 5.0 points per game, .3 assists per game and 4.1 rebounds per game.

Using the score system from earlier, the Washington bench score is a 2.6; Kentucky's is a 3.7.

But, that is a bit misleading.

The Wizards depth would mean they could rotate more players, reducing fatigue and keeping their players, especially their starters, fresh. If the Kentucky starters get into foul trouble, the entire team will have problems.

Miller could come in and one would hardly notice any drop off at all. But, if the Wildcats had to dig deeper into their bench, I think the Wizards experience advantage would come into play.

Advantage: Wizards

The Variables

For all the analysis about talent, it might very well be the variables of the game itself that could decide a contest that, on paper anyway, looks to be closer than one might expect.

First off, what type of game would it be? By this I mean would it be played under a college format or an NBA style game.

For instance, will a 24-second shot clock be used or will it be the 35-second clock used in the NCAA. A 35-second clock would enable the Wildcats to control the tempo of the game.

Also, which three-point line will be used?

If the NBA distance is used, this should favor Washington. If the shorter NCAA distance is used, I don't think that would absolutely favor Kentucky. The shorter distance might actually enable some of the Wizards players to shoot better.

Obviously, the Wildcats would be more comfortable playing with a three-point line with which they were accustomed.

Then we have to determine which foul system will be in use. Will players foul out at five or six fouls?

Beyond that, what bonus system will be used, the NBA's relatively simple system or the NCAA's somewhat complicated bonus system?

Will the teams play 20-minute halves, or will they play 12-minute quarters?

Would there be any limits on zone defense?

A huge factor would be the location of the game. For Kentucky to have a realistic chance, the game would have to be played at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats would need that raucous crowd to cheer their brains out to create that extra energy they need to pull off this upset.

A word about coaching...I think it is difficult to give John Calipari or Randy Wittman the edge because of all the variables mentioned above.

But, I would probably give Calipari the edge because he has coached in the NBA before and actually got the Nets to the playoffs in '97-'98.

Wittman has never coached in the NCAA. So, if the game is more a college style game, that would be a huge advantage for the Wildcats; if it is a NBA style game, that would probably be a push.

Advantage: Unable to determine

And the Winner Is...

I was surprised to learn that through a careful analysis of this fantasy game, the concept of the Wildcats beating the Wizards is not as ludicrous as I assumed it would be.

Nevertheless, I think the Wizards would win this game and, probably, win it going away. Sure, anything can happen in a one-game scenario, and it does seem like the Wildcats match up better with the Wizards than one might believe.

But, this is a Kentucky team that lost to Indiana and lost to Vanderbilt. They are not unbeatable. By comparison, the Wizards have beaten the Thunder and Lakers this season.

As good as the Wildcats might be, the Thunder or Lakers would absolutely crush them in a way reminiscent of a US Olympic basketball team preliminary round game.

If the Wizards played their best basketball and the Wildcats played their absolute best, the Wizards win pretty easily. Kentucky would have to play its very best and Washington would have to play, well, like they usually do, for the Wildcats to have a legitimate shot.

With the pride of the entire NBA riding on their shoulders, I think the Wizards would play as though their lives depended on it, and they would prevail.