2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Risky First Rounders to Avoid

Nothing can ruin a fantasy baseball team quite as easily as a bad first-round pick. In any fantasy sport, your first rounder is supposed to be the cornerstone of your team, so as that player goes, so does your team. Not every first rounder is going to be a success, however.

As much as you can count on players like Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, there are plenty of landmines out there that are daring you to take them before blowing up in your face. You certainly want to end up with a stud in the first round, but you also want to hedge your bets by getting a player without consistency issues.

Here's a first-round mock draft for a standard 12-team league, with some analysis on players who have been projected in the first round that you'll want to steer clear of.

1. 1B/3B Miguel Cabrera (DET)

If Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera weren't already valuable enough, he'll be even more sought after this season as he makes the switch back to third base to make room for Prince Fielder. That means that you'll be almost guaranteed an average over .320 with over 30 home runs and 100 RBI from a position that is thinning each and every year.

There may be players with a higher ceiling than Cabrera, but if you want a sure thing, then he's your guy. Not even off-field problems were able to slow Cabrera down last season, and he's never missed more than 12 games in a single year.

2. 1B Albert Pujols (LAA)

Speaking of sure things, first baseman Albert Pujols may be in a new locale this season as a member of the Los Angeles Angels, but not much is likely to change in terms of the former St. Louis Cardinals slugger's production. Last season may have been the worst of Pujols' career but he still managed a .299 average with 37 home runs and 99 RBI while missing 15 games.

If that's Pujols at his worst, you can only imagine what he'll do at his best. There may be a bit of an adjustment period, but Pujols is moving to a better hitter's park and should have a decent amount of protection in the lineup. Take Albert with confidence and don't worry about him all year long.

3. OF Matt Kemp (LAD)

There is no doubt that Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp was the fantasy baseball MVP last season. He did a little bit of everything, hitting .324 with 39 home runs, 126 RBI, 115 runs and 40 steals. It's tough to remember a more complete or impressive fantasy season than that, so he should be high in your radar.

Kemp isn't as strong a lock as Cabrera and Pujols as he hit a mere .249 in 2010, but it's tough to imagine Kemp fading back into oblivion. He has the potential to hit 40 homers and swipe 40 bags, and he may be the only player in the league who can offer that.

4. SS Troy Tulowitzki (COL)

There is something to be said about drafting to positional scarcity, and there is no scarcer position than shortstop. There are very few shortstops in the league who are able to put up numbers that are comparable to players at other positions, but one player who can is Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies.

Tulowitzki is the best offensive shortstop in the game as he proved last year with a career season of .302, 30 home runs and 105 RBI. It's tough to find that type of power production from any player, but it's almost impossible to find it at shortstop. Tulo only swiped nine bases last year, but his career high is 20, so if he can approach that number, he will be proficient at everything and he'll do it from a weak position.

5. OF Ryan Braun (MIL)

As good as Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun has been throughout his five-year career, I believe there is reason to worry this time around. Braun has hit at least .304, parked at least 32 home runs and drove in at least 103 runs in four of his five seasons, but this year there is plenty of controversy surrounding him.

Braun tested positive for a banned substance and was facing a 50-game suspension, which he successfully appealed based on flaws in the testing process. The manner in which Braun escaped punishment has led many to believe he may have been guilty and that could weigh on his psyche. I normally don't put much stock in spring training, but Braun has struggled and has dealt with a groin injury.

Braun was unbelievable last season as he hit .332 with over 30 homers and steals, and over 100 RBI and runs, so we know what he can do when his head is right. What we don't know, though, is if that performance was fueled by performance-enhancing drugs in any way. At a certain point he becomes a steal, but I'm not sure I'd risk a first on Braun.

6. 2B Robinson Cano (NYY)

There really aren't many offensively productive second basemen in the majors. And there is no question that New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano is the best pure hitter among them and he may very well be the best pure hitter in baseball. Cano followed up his career year in 2010 with a .302 average, 28 homers and 118 RBI last year.

Cano has hit at least .297 in six of his seven season, so that part of his game is legitimate, but so is the power—Robbie now has three consecutive seasons with at least 25 bombs, making good use of the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium. Don't look for Cano to regress any time soon.

7. 3B/OF Jose Bautista (TOR)

There was a lot of skepticism surrounding Toronto Blue Jays third baseman and outfielder Joe Bautista last year as he entered the season coming off a shocking 2010 campaign. Bautista had never hit more than 16 home runs in a season previously but he blasted 54 in 2010. He proved it wasn't a fluke, though, as he launched 43 out of the park in 2011, adding 103 RBI and a career-high .302 average.

Bautista's insane power numbers saw a dip, but they were still elite and he became a better overall offensive player, reaching base with far more consistency. Due to his consistency and power in a league that is seeing fewer and fewer homers, he is well worth a first-round pick.

8. SP Justin Verlander (DET)

It's hard to imagine a starting pitcher having a better season than the one Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander had last year. He was the runaway winner of the AL Cy Young Award and he was named the AL MVP as well, winning 24 games, striking of 250 batters and boasting a sparkling 2.40 ERA with a minuscule 0.92 WHIP.

If those numbers were guaranteed again this season, then Verlander would be an obvious first rounder, but that isn't how fantasy baseball works. There is a popular mantra in fantasy baseball: "Don't pay for career years." Don't spend a high pick on a player who can only regress.

As good as Verlander was last season, there's no scenario in which I can see him improving. Prior to last year he had never had more than 19 wins and he had never had a better ERA than 3.37 or a better WHIP than 1.16. Verlander may have turned over a new leaf, but his 2012 numbers are likely to be somewhere between last year's and his career averages, making him good, but not worth this high a selection.

9. SP Roy Halladay (PHI)

If you're dead set on taking a starting pitcher in the first round, then Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay is your guy. Not only does he have at least 19 wins in three of his last four seasons, but he has struck out 200 batters in four straight years, has an ERA under 3.00 in four straight years, and WHIP of 1.13 or lower in five of his past seven seasons.

Basically, you know what you're going to get out of Halladay, and because of the way he pitches, it isn't likely that he'll get hurt. He's an absolute workhorse who has thrown 220 or more innings in six straight seasons, and while all of that will wear on him one day, there aren't any signs that it will start this season.

10. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)

Boston Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez may have had his worst home run output in five years last season, but the sweet-swinging lefty still made good use of the Green Monster. A-Gon hit a sizzling .338, while driving in 117 runs and scoring 108 of his own. Even though he didn't come anywhere near his true power potential, he still hit 27 dingers.

Gonzalez was getting acclimated to a new league last year and dealt with some nagging injuries, but he was still an elite player. There is no reason to believe that Gonzalez will do anything other than improve during his second season in Beantown, so he's among the safer picks out there even if he does play at a deep position.

11. OF Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)

Remember what I said about not paying for career years? Well, it also applies to Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Before injuries ruined Ellsbury's entire 2010 season, he had become a fantasy force as he hit .301 and stole an astounding 70 bases in 2009. The only knock on him was that he was a bit one-dimensional.

That all changed last season as he returned from injury with a vengeance, setting career highs in batting average (.321), home runs (32), runs (119) and RBI (105), while swiping 39 bags. The power production came out of nowhere as Ellsbury was thought to have 20-home-run potential at best. His game really developed, but was it a mirage?

I think his power is legitimate, but when I say that, it doesn't mean that he'll be a 30-homer guy. It seems more likely that a player of his stature will hit 20-something home runs and be happy with that. The issue is that if you take Ellsbury here, then you're paying for numbers you'll never see. With that in mind, it's best to wait until the second round and hope that he lasts that long.

12. OF Justin Upton (ARI)

Up-and-coming Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton is right on the borderline between the first and second rounds, but I put him in the first for discussion's sake. Upton finally put it all together last season as he hit a solid .289, while smashing 31 home runs, driving in 88 and stealing 21 bases. 

It was always thought that he could be a 30/30 guy and he is right on the precipice of realizing that potential provided he is allowed to run more. The main thing that Upton has going for him is that even though he has played parts of five Major League seasons, he is just 24 years old, so the best is yet to come. Few players are as good as he is with potential to get better, so he's worth gambling on.