Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy 2012: Tempting Bounce-Back Candidates to Avoid

There comes a point in every fantasy baseball draft when you're tempted to do something you really shouldn't, and that's use a pick on a guy who is coming off a terrible season. 

On occasion, you can get lucky.

Anybody who drafted Matt Kemp or Jacoby Ellsbury last season can vouch. But for every Kemp and every Ellsbury, there is a Barry Zito—a guy doomed to go from being terrible one year to being worse the next.

For the record, don't draft Zito. Unless your team is set and you feel like making a joke. Then go right ahead.

While we're on the subject, don't draft any of the five guys listed below either. You'll be rolling the dice in a big way, and that's just not a good idea.

David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

There are two big concerns when it comes to David Wright.

The first is his health.

Wright only played in 102 games last season, and he was limited to 144 games in 2009. This spring, Wright was held back by an abdominal injury, which is hardly an encouraging sign given his recent track record.

The other major concern is over how productive Wright will be.

Wright's career numbers at Citi Field are pitiful, and he'll be hitting in the middle of the Mets' lineup that will hold his numbers down. He's not going to have an abundance of runners to drive in, and it's not a lock that Ike Davis will stay healthy enough to protect him this season.

The counter-argument is that Wright is a high-reward player, but is he really?

He had a bounce-back season in 2010, but Wright couldn't hit .300 or top 30 home runs, and he only drove in 103 runs.

Numbers like those aren't worth the risk.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

Alex Rodriguez is an even bigger injury concern than Wright.

Much has been made of the funky treatment A-Rod got over the offseason, but the simple truth is that you can't treat age.

A-Rod hasn't played a full season since 2007, and his OPS has declined each of the last four seasons. He used to be lock for a .900 OPS, 35 or so home runs and well over 100 RBI. Now, reasonable expectations for A-Rod involve an OPS over .800 with 30 homers and right around 100 RBI.

Given his recent track record, you have to think A-Rod won't be able to stay healthy enough to play 150-plus games this season, and it's not safe to expect him to get back to being his old self with a bat in his hands. 

I would expect A-Rod to carry on like he did before the All-Star break last season, when he was hitting .295/.366/.485 with a mere 13 home runs.

There are numerous other third basemen around the league who are capable of putting up numbers like that, and few of them come with the injury concerns of A-Rod.

Derek Lowe, SP, Cleveland Indians

Derek Lowe has had some bad seasons in his career, but none so bad as the one he had in 2011, losing 17 games with an ERA over 5.00 and a WHIP over 1.50.

The bright side is that Lowe still induced plenty of ground balls. His ground-ball rate stayed steady at 59 percent. Not as high as rates Lowe used to be capable of, but still pretty high.

The not-so-bright side is that Lowe's BB/9 jumped up to 3.37, and he had a BABIP of .327. His BABIP has been over .300 in each of the last three years now, and you can't blame simple bad luck for a trend like that.

It's worth noting that all of these struggles happened in the National League. In the American League, Lowe stands to get worse, not better.

Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Bronson Arroyo went from being one of the steadiest starters in the majors to being one of the worst starters in the majors last season. He had an ERA over 5.00 and a 1.37 WHIP, and he gave up a ridiculous 46 home runs.

This was bound to happen.

Arroyo's strikeout rate has been on the decline, and it bottomed out at 4.88 per nine innings last season. Opponents hit .286 off him, with an absurd .527 slugging percentage.

Arroyo's regression in 2011 was extreme, but it must be kept in mind that we're talking about a guy whose FIP was in the mid 4.00s each season from 2007-2010. Arroyo was getting away with a lot before, and simply ceased to get away with a lot in 2011.

Arroyo could be better in 2012, but even if he does improve he's only going to go from being god-awful to being mediocre.

Arroyo is not worth a pick.

Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox

Adam Dunn was awful in his first season with the White Sox last year, and there are reasons to believe it was no fluke.

Dunn has always been prone to the strikeout, but his K rate jumped all the way up to a career-high 35.7 percent last season. This was combined with a 15.1 walk rate, a sign that Dunn still had a good eye, but just wasn't able to make solid contact.

Dunn's BABIP numbers suggests this is very true.

After being over .320 in 2009 and 2010, Dunn's BABIP fell all the way to .240 last year. His ISO plummeted all the way to .118, a far fall for a guy who routinely posted ISOs over .270.

Dunn still hit a lot of fly balls. In fact, his fly-ball rate was a solid 47.5 percent.

The key problem is that his HR/FB rate was a mere 9.6 percent. Before last season, Dunn had never posted a HR/FB rate under 20.

Dunn certainly can't be any worse than this. But if you're thinking he'll snap his fingers and go back to being his old self, think again.