2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Breaking Down This Year's Top Picks

Those who have been playing fantasy baseball long enough will tell you that you can't win your league in the first round of the draft.

However, you can most certainly lose it if you're not careful with your pick.

There are all sorts of strategies and guidelines for drafting a good fantasy baseball team beyond the first round, but the key to the first round is pretty simple: take the best player available.

I could go on and on about what that means, but it's a lot simpler if I just run through a first-round mock explaining why each player goes where.

Note: this is for a standard 5x5 roto league with 12 players.

1. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

If you end up with the No. 1 overall pick in your draft, the object will always be to take a player who can dominate in five different categories. There are no pitchers who can do that, so you have to take a hitter.

This year, the clear choice for the No. 1 overall pick is Matt Kemp. He's coming off a season in which he hit .324 with 115 runs, 39 home runs, 126 RBI and 40 stolen bases. Even if Kemp regresses, he's still going to steal bases and hit for power with a respectable batting average. He's a rare breed.

2. Miguel Cabrera, 3B/1B, Detroit Tigers

With Kemp off the board, you could reach for a high-ceiling player like Jacoby Ellsbury, but the better idea is to draft a hitter who you know is going to mash.

Miguel Cabrera is as steady as they come. Since joining the Tigers, his average season consists of a .322 batting average, 101 runs, 115 RBI and 35 home runs. This season, he'll have Prince Fielder protecting him in the lineup, and he'll have both third-base and first-base eligibility. In other words, he'll be a fantasy superstar, albeit a very slow one.

3. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

With Kemp and Cabrera off the board, there are numerous hitters that could be targeted with the No. 3 overall pick.

What makes Jose Bautista the best pick is his tremendously high ceiling and his versatility. He hit more than 50 home runs in 2010 and was on his way to an all-time season before nagging injuries and a post-Home Run Derby slump got the better of him. If he stays consistent in 2012, he'll put up numbers worthy of a No. 1 overall pick.

4. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

There's a train of thought that Ryan Braun will plummet back to earth now that Prince Fielder isn't around in Milwaukee anymore.

I don't agree. Even without Fielder around to protect him in the lineup, Braun is still perfectly capable of hitting well over .300 with 25-30 home runs, 100-plus runs, 110-plus RBI and 20-30 stolen bases. He won't be a Kemp-like five-category threat, but he's a surer thing than Ellsbury.

5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

A year ago, Albert Pujols was in play for the No. 1 overall pick in all leagues. The only reason he's not now is because of his down season in 2011.

But here's the kicker: Pujols' "down season" consisted of a .299 average, 37 home runs, 105 runs, 99 RBI and even nine stolen bases. Health was an issue, as Pujols suffered a broken wrist that robbed him of a few games' worth of production. Better health will lead to better production in 2012.

6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

At this point in the draft, the top hitters at very weak positions should start to come off the board. Contrary to the way things used to be, shortstop is filled with very weak hitters, so the best of the bunch will be in high demand.

This year, that's Troy Tulowitzki. He's the only shortstop in the majors who's a lock for a .300 average, 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Those who draft him have the added comfort of knowing that Coors Field will boost Tulo's numbers.

7. Joe Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

This is a spot where players like Ellsbury and Robinson Cano will be in play, but neither of them should be drafted ahead of a hitter like Joey Votto.

Votto hit over .320 in 2009 and 2010 before regressing to .309 in 2011. It's a good bet that he'll get back to hitting .320 this season, and the bar can safely be set at 30 home runs, 100 runs and 100 RBI. With a bit of luck, Votto will steal more than 15 bases, as he did in his MVP season in 2010.

8. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox

Cano could go here, but the only thing he has on Ellsbury is second-base eligibility. Ellsbury was one of the best fantasy producers in the league in 2011, and he will be again even if he regresses.

Ellsbury won't hit .321 with 30-plus bombs again, but he will hit over .300 with 25 or so home runs, and he'll score well over 100 runs with around 90 RBI. The bright side is that decreased power will lead to more stolen bases. If Ellsbury drops to 25 home runs, he could jump up to 50 stolen bases.

9. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

OK, now it's time to go for Robinson Cano. No second baseman in the league will match his fantasy production.

Cano will have his ups and downs, but by the end of the season, he'll be sitting on a batting average over .300, 25-plus home runs, 100-plus runs and well over 100 RBI. He's not a burner, but he'll steal anywhere in between five and 10 bases. 

10. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

You'll see people go for Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez or a stud pitcher here, but Adrian Gonzalez is the safest possible pick at No. 10 and a potential steal.

We know that Gonzalez is capable of hitting well over .300, as he hit .338 in his first season in Boston, adding 27 home runs, 108 runs and 117 RBI. His average likely won't drop all that much, but fantasy players everywhere will be hoping for 30-35 home runs. Gonzalez certainly can hit that many home runs, and if he does, he'll provide top-five production.

11. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

A lot of people don't like going for starting pitching in the first round. But if all the best hitters and the cream of the shortstop and second-base crops are off the board, now would be a great time to go for Roy Halladay.

Halladay tops the starting pitching board because he's a lock for numbers that represent the best-case scenario for every other pitcher. Halladay is going to win around 20 games with an ERA well below 3.00, a WHIP right around 1.00 and he's even going to strike out over 200 hitters. If he could somehow save games too, he'd be in play for the No. 1 overall pick.

12. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Justin Upton is still developing as a hitter, and that's a scary thought. He's already a first-round fantasy player.

Upton is coming off a season in which he hit .289 with 31 home runs, 105 runs and 88 RBI with 21 stolen bases. He has it in him to hit over .300 with 35 home runs, in which case he'll drive in over 100 runs. His steals will stay steady because he'll be on base more often.

The only reason he's not up there with Kemp is because he's not a 100-percent safe pick and because he'll steal slightly fewer bases and hit for a slightly lower average. Other than that, we're talking about similar fantasy producers.