Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Justin Verlander and Stars to Avoid

I see you there, all excited for your fantasy baseball draft, ready to drop big bucks/top picks on last year's most productive MLB stars.

But, on the diamond as in life, it's all too easy to get caught up in the passion of the now, to allow our recency biases to take over and to ignore the fact that astronomical performers tend to come back down to Earth in due time.

With that in mind, let's have a look at three standouts from 2011 who, while certainly valuable in the fantasy world, will be hard-pressed to live up to their lofty billing in 2012.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Don't get me wrong; Justin Verlander deserves (most of) the price most will pay to get him. After all, he was the most dominant pitcher in baseball last year, piling up career bests in wins (24), earned-run average (2.40) and WHIP (0.92), with 250 strikeouts and some of the most dominant stuff anyone has twirled in some time.

Just don't expect him to replicate those numbers this season, or to even come particularly close. He'd never posted a sub-3.00 ERA over a full campaign prior to last year and he actually outperformed his fielding-independent (2.99 FIP) and expected fielding-independent numbers (3.12 xFIP).

Which suggests two things: 1) he was fairly lucky; and 2) he's going to suffer considerably from Detroit's defensive downgrades. Having Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on the corners and Jhonny Peralta at shortstop doesn't exactly bode well for a pitcher who induces ground balls and fly balls with nearly equal frequency.

To be sure, having thumpers like those three putting up runs for him will help in the wins department and allow Verlander to pitch more aggressively, though the concern over him throwing the most pitches in baseball last year could just as easily counteract that. 

Jose Valverde

Like his Tigers teammate, Jose Valverde had an unseasonably awesome campaign in 2011 and, as such, is all too likely to regress back to the mean this time around. Valverde led all of baseball with 49 saves in 49 chances—a 100 percent success rate, for those of you keeping track.

And while Valverde is bound to have his fair share of opportunities to close out games for the AL Central favorites this season, he can hardly be counted on to keep his string of perfection going, not after blowing 30-of-193 prior to 2011.

And not with the aforementioned infield playing behind him.

Throw in Valverde's track record of consistent inconsistency (no back-to-back sub-3.00 ERA seasons), the cavernous disparity between his ERA (2.24) and his xFIP (4.01), his age (34) and the general unreliability and unpredictability of relief pitchers, and there's only one thing you should say if Valverde's on the table for a hefty sum:

No way, Jose!

Matt Kemp

There's a lot to like about Matt Kemp. He's ambitious, having already discussed the possibility of a 50-homer, 50-steal season after falling one home run shy of the 40-40 club in 2011. At 27, he seems to have finally matured both mentally and physically, thereby preparing him for an uber-productive prime.

And with an eight-year, $160 million deal under his belt, he has the long-term security and peace of mind to perform at a high level.

That being said, there's no ignoring Kemp's somewhat dodgy recent history (.249 batting average, 170 strikeouts in 2010), his free-swinging ways (139 K's or more per season since 2008), his lack of protection in the Dodgers lineup (Andre Ethier? James Loney?), the dearth of patient hitters in front of him (Dee Gordon? Mark Ellis?) and the fact that he plays most of his games in a National League West division loaded with top-notch hurlers and pitchers' parks, Dodger Stadium included.

Is that enough for ya?

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