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How to Ace Your Fantasy Baseball Draft, Part II

Jay ClemonsJun 7, 2018

Earlier this week, we ran a piece ("How To Ace Your Fantasy Draft, Part I") which explored the psychological aspects of generally approaching a draft. As a natural sequel to that offering, may we present, How To Ace Your Fantasy Draft, Part II: Seven Personnel Rules To Live By.

1. Select at least one corner infielder in the first three picks.

As George Costanza might say, this isn't a hard-and-fast rule, especially for the savvy owner who invokes a combination of Outfield/Starting Pitcher/Shortstop or Second Base in the first three rounds. Generally speaking, though, it's beneficial to target one of the elite first basemen (Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Eric Hosmer, Paul Konerko) early on; and for the owners drafting low in Round 1/high in Round 2, the opportunity to corral Votto or Gonzo AND Prince is something everyone should consider. Yes, you'll have to catch up on middle infielders or outfield, but you won't have to reach for one-dimensional power at any other point of the draft. It's true peace of mind.

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2. Avoid being at the tail end of a same-position draft runafter Round 2.

This is how extreme mock-draft preparation can really help an owner establish certain lines of demarcation. Let's take pitchers, for example. I have Zack Greinke as the No. 10 starter, followed by Matt Cain, Dan Haren, David Price, Jon Lester, etc. Greinke should be more aligned with his ranked predecessors (Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, CC Sabathia) than Price, Haren and Lester.

So, if you get caught up in a run of three or four starting pitchers, and Greinke was the last pitcher taken, it's probably wise to bypass thoughts of another starter. Try focusing on Hunter Pence, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus or Brett Lawrie. The same rationale applies to outfielders in the later rounds: If five straight guys at that position have suddenly flown off the board...perhaps it's not the best time to grab Carlos Beltran, Andre Ethier or Carlos Lee. The message here: think value, value, value at every turn.

There is one hard exception to this rule: If you've waited until Round 14 or so to draft two closers, by all means, knock yourself out when the 30-save, 2.50 ERA relievers start flying off the shelves.

3. Never take more than three starting pitchers in the first eight rounds of 12-team drafts.

This time-tested rule is borne out of the belief that elite hitters have more midseason value than elite pitchers. On the same plane, it's easier to mix-and-match good pitching after the draft—using the deep pool of long relievers—than it is to find prominent hitters in free agency. So, in that vain, owners should feel emboldened to draft at least six hitters in the first eight rounds, with the notable exception of Stephen Strasburg inexplicably tumbling to Round 7 or 8. Stay focused on crafting a dynamic infield, or deep outfield, or a lethal stable of corner infielders with 30-HR power.

4. Give major consideration to an outfielder every three picks.

This is not a demand to select an outfielder every three choices. It's merely an instructive order to consider one every three rounds, as a means of continually gauging the market. It's already been said countless times in this blog: Fantasy drafts are like snowflakes. Each one operates as its own entity. On Monday, Shin-Soo Choo may be going in Round 9. On Friday...Round 6. It's important to keep tabs on everyone at this vital position.

5. Avoid closers in the first six rounds.

This one seems like common sense, but it bears repeating: If you can get Drew Storen (78th overall), John Axford (87th), Mariano Rivera (97th) or Jonathan Papelbon (101st) in the vicinity of their prescribed Average Draft Position values (via Mock Draft Central), then take the plunge. But on the whole, closers are essentially a group of clustered assets whose numbers will appear remarkably similar by season's end.

Simply put, DO NOT pay exorbitantly for saves. Ever. (Unfortunately, that means Craig Kimbrel in Round 5.)

6. Do not get obsessed with other owners' rosters during a draft.

On Tuesday night, I'll be hosting two Philanthropist baseball drafts, featuring ardent followers of The Fantasy Blog. As a function of the drafts, it's human nature for the other owners to pay extra-special attention to how I'm proceeding, as a resource for future bragging.

But here's the deal: During drafts, I only focus on the guy/gal selecting in front of me, and behind. Ultimately, they're the ones who will influence the makeup of my roster; and in snake drafts, we'll have ample chances to sabotage each other every other round. It's a fascinating two-way street of vigilante justice.

7. It's OK to reach for your favorite prospective star...after Round 16.

We'll call this one The Moustakas Rule. If you're satisfied with your draft at Round 17 or so, and feel that a potential difference-maker remains on the board, owners should be encouraged to do a one-round reach for an asset that could post Lawrie-like numbers during the season. Possible candidates include Ryan Roberts in Round 17, Brandon Belt (Round 18), Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (Round 19), Lorenzo Cain (Round 21), Bryce Harper (Round 22) or Angels outfielder Mike Trout (Round 25).

Bottom line: Life's too short to wait forever on the next great household name (ahem, Trout).

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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