Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: 5 Closers You Should Feel Safe Drafting

We all know somebody who has used a high draft pick on a closer only to get burned. Odds are you've suffered that same fate yourself.

Shoot, I know I have. I can't look at Brad Lidge the same way after what he did to my ERA and WHIP in 2009.

There's no denying it. Closers are finicky creatures. They're prone to nagging injuries, and you never know when a stud closer is going to turn into a dud closer who has to be replaced. You just can't take anything for granted.

There are, however, five closers who you can feel safe drafting. I've listed them below.

5. John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers

John Axford has only been a full-time closer for a year-and-a-half, but it's been a good year-and-a-half. Since taking over as Milwaukee's closer midway through 2010, Axford has saved 70 games in 75 chances.

In 2011, Axford converted 43 saves in a row after blowing a couple early opportunities to put his job in jeopardy. Better yet, he maintained a K/9 better than 10.00 while keeping his walks relatively low. He also posted a near-50 percent ground-ball rate.

It all equated to a 1.95 ERA for Axford, who also held opponents to a .212 batting average.

There is some concern regarding his status because he will be easily replaced by Francisco Rodriguez if he happens to struggle. But Axford showed in 2011 that he can be consistent, and that he won't hurt you when it comes to ERA and WHIP. It's hard to ask for more out of a closer.

4. Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies gave Jonathan Papelbon a stupid contract, but they can rest comfortably knowing Pap is going to save plenty of games for them.

After two off years in a row, Pap looked more like himself last season. He had a 12.17 to 1.40 strikeout to walk ratio, giving him an elite 8.70 BB/9. The only thing missing was the opportunities, as Pap only got 34 save ops in 2011.

He should get a lot more than that with the Phillies. Their pitching staff will log a lot of innings, leaving the bullpen less prone to blowing a hard-earned lead. And since the Phillies don't have a lot of thunder in their lineup, leads are likely to be slim.

Pap is in line for more than 40 saves this season. If he doesn't get that high, he surely won't dip below 35.  

3. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants

Brian Wilson had a very tough season in 2011. He was hurt out of the gate, and then suffered through decreased velocity and more aches and pains as the season went along. His strikeouts dipped and his walks went way up.

But here's the kicker: he still managed to save 36 games.

A lot of people are going to be scared off by Wilson's tough 2011 campaign, but I wouldn't be. It looked to me like a classic case of a World Series hangover. Wilson got to have a regular offseason this year, and the only negative buzz concerning him so far in spring training has been over a case of run-of-the-mill spring arm soreness.

A healthy Wilson will be able to throw the ball hard, and he'll give you plenty of strikeouts while limiting walks and hits. He'll also save over 40 games, as the Giants don't have enough offense to build big leads and the Giants' bullpen is talented enough to hold whatever leads it is given to hold.

2. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Craig Kimbrel only has one season of fantasy dominance under his belt, but it was good enough to sell me on the idea that he should be one of the most coveted closers in baseball.

More than anything, what you have to like about Kimbrel is his uncanny ability to punch hitters out. He struck out 127 hitters in 77 innings, an insane K/9 of 14.84. He also held hitters to a .178 batting average.

The only concern when it comes to Kimbrel is whether he may have been overworked in 2011. He most certainly was overworked in 2011, but the good news is that he has yet to show any ill effects in spring training. As long as his arm stays attached to his body, it seems Kimbrel will be okay.

The chances will be there for Kimbrel. He got over 50 save chances in 2011, and that was due largely to Atlanta's lack of firepower. The Braves still don't have much on offense, so Kimbrel is in line for more of the same. He'll be well worth an early-round investment.

1. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees

He's saved at least 30 games in 14 of the last 15 seasons.

His ERA has been under 2.00 in eight of the last nine seasons.

He's posted a WHIP under 1.00 in six of the last seven seasons.

He's baseball's all-time saves leader.

Nuff said.