2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: One-Year Wonders to Approach with Caution

Tackling a fantasy baseball draft is more complex than simply picking the best player available whenever you're on the clock. Occasionally, it behooves one to think twice and make the safest pick you can possibly make.

The best way to go about that is to know where the one-year wonders are. There are a lot of these players to keep an eye on this year, as we saw some huge breakout seasons in 2011.

Occasionally, you'll invest in a breakout season and be rewarded (Jose Bautista in 2011). Other times, you'll invest in a breakout season and watch your fantasy team go up in flames the next season (Jason Heyward in 2011).

Just know that there are a handful of breakout stars you should approach with caution in your draft. If you don't like drafting players with bust potential, you're better off avoiding them.

Here are four very big names you should be cautious of.

Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

If you scroll below, you'll notice that Matt Kemp is the No. 1 overall pick in my little three-round mock draft. He's the No. 1 pick because anybody lucky to have the No. 1 pick should be on the lookout for a guy who is going to own five different categories (we're talking a standard 5x5 league).

So why am I singling out Kemp here, thereby kinda contradicting myself?

Primarily because Kemp has gotten our hopes up before only to disappoint. He had a great season in 2009 only to have a terrible season in 2010. He responded by living up to his vast potential in 2011, but one way to look at that is to realize the only way to go from here is down.

What I like about Kemp's 2011 season is the way in which he upped his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate. He was smarter and more selective in the box, and that led to a huge increases in batting average and on-base percentage. However, the .380 BABIP that Kemp posted last season is not a mark that's sustainable. I'm expecting it to fall back to something like .330 or .340, which will result in a low batting average and minor dips across the board.

Of course, Kemp could always regress worse than that. He's done it before, after all.

If you want to know that you're going to get a good return on your No. 1 pick, take Miguel Cabrera. The dude's a lock for solid numbers in every category but steals.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox

Jacoby Ellsbury entered 2011 as a singles hitter and a stolen-base generator with a reputation for softness.

He responded by playing in 158 games and leading baseball in extra-base hits with 32 home runs, over 100 runs and 100 RBI, and 39 stolen bases.

"Take that!" he seemed to say.

Ellsbury wasn't any more patient than he was in 2009 (he basically didn't play in 2010, so I choose to ignore it), nor did he strike out any less. His explosion in 2011 was due to him simply making solid contact consistently. And indeed, he got more powerful as the year went along, slugging .625 with 21 home runs after the All-Star break.

The numbers Ellsbury put up last season are worthy of a top-five pick, and the good news is that I don't think he's going to be a complete bust. But if he doesn't hit for the kind of power he hit for last season, he'll be a wasted first-round draft pick. He'll hit a few home runs, but a massive power regression will make him a mere stolen-base threat once again.

There are numerous players you could go for instead of Ellsbury. I recommend picking the guy with the best track record if you're scared off by Ellsbury.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

We knew Clayton Kershaw could strike guys out. What he proved in 2011 is that he's capable of keeping his walks down too. His BB/9 dropped from 3.57 to 2.08–a huge decrease.

The only pitcher in baseball who was better than Kershaw last season was Justin Verlander, but Kershaw is going to be in higher demand because, let's face it, Verlander's not going to be that good again. Kershaw, on the other hand, is still developing as a pitcher, which is scary.

But that's just the thing. Kershaw is a breakout star, but he's not an established star. We know what he can be, but we don't know what he is.

Kershaw could go the way or Verlander, but he could also go the way of Dontrelle Willis. And remember, even Verlander had his issues after it looked like he had the league by the tail (see his 2008 season).

Kershaw earned the right to be one of the first pitchers off the board with his 2011 season, but if you want to be really, really sure you're getting an ace, you should consider Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees

Some might debate the idea of Curtis Granderson being a one-year wonder. It's true. This isn't exactly fair.

The truth is that Granderson is more like a one-and-a-half-year wonder, as he's been hitting the ball out of the park at an alarming rate ever since late in the 2010 season. He never stopped mashing in 2011, and in the end he had beaten his previous career high in home runs by 11.

I'd say Granderson peaked last season. It's reasonable to expect him to regress somewhere back towards the 30-homer mark, which will lead to a significant decrease in his RBI total. He had never driven in more than 74 runs last season, so expecting him to drive in 119 just isn't fair.

The bright side is that a power decrease could conceivably lead to an increase in stolen bases, but Granderson would have to get on base consistently for that to happen. The problem with that is that Granderson strikes out a ton, which will limit his ability to post a high OBP.

The worst-case scenario involves Granderson getting homer happy this season, which will lead to significant struggles if he's not connecting. It's a legitimate scare given his tendency for strikeouts and the temptation of Yankee Stadium's short right field porch.

Zachary D. Rymer's Mock with Season Projections

Pick	Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
1	Matt Kemp, OF	100	35	110	38	.300
2	Miguel Cabrera, 1B	115	40	125	0	.330
3	Jose Bautista, OF/3B	100	40	110	8	.295
4	Ryan Braun, OF	110	30	120	30	.315
5	Albert Pujols, 1B	110	38	125	0	.320
6	Troy Tulowitzki, SS	90	30	100	10	.305
7	Joey Votto, 1B	95	30	115	8	.315
8	Jacoby Ellsbury, OF	110	25	90	40	.300
9	Robinson Cano, 2B	100	25	110	5	.305
10	Adrian Gonzalez, 1B	100	30	110	0	.330
11	Roy Halladay, SP						20	0	215	2.40	1.05
12	Evan Longoria, 3B	90	30	110	2	.300
13	Justin Upton, OF	100	25	100	20	.285
14	Prince Fielder, 1B	90	35	110	0	.290
15	Clayton Kershaw, SP						17	0	240	2.70	1.05
16	Carlos Gonzalez, OF	100	30	100	20	.295
17	Dustin Pedroia, 2B	100	20	90	20	.310
18	Justin Verlander, SP						19	0	230	3.00	1.05
19	Jose Reyes, SS	100	10	65	40	.295
20	Curtis Granderson, OF	100	30	95	30	.255
21	Giancarlo Stanton, OF	80	40	105	5	.280
22	Hanley Ramirez, SS	100	25	100	25	.280
23	Cliff Lee, SP						18	0	225	.2.80	1.05
24	Ian Kinsler, 2B	120	25	75	25	.250
25	Ryan Zimmerman, 3B	.300	30	100	5	.300
26	CC Sabathia, SP						19	0	230	3.20	1.20
27	Matt Holliday, OF	100	30	110	10	.305
28	Craig Kimbrel, RP						5	45	125	1.90	0.95
29	Mark Teixeira, 1B	90	38	105	0	.250
30	Andrew McCutchen, OF	100	25	95	25	.280