Australian Grand Prix Analysis: Which Team Gained the Most over the Winter?

The new Formula One season burst into life in Australia last weekend and, as we hoped, there were plenty of surprises.

The first race is deeply anticipated because we assume it will give us a clue as to how the season will pan out.

Quite simply: Who is fastest?

The answer appears to be McLaren, but it’s very difficult to work out how quick the Red Bull RB8 really is. To win the championship, each team has to maximise the car it has at its disposal, and it seems that Red Bull failed to do this in qualifying in Melbourne.

But the Milton Keynes-based team will certainly get the best from the car in future races.

As Sebastian Vettel said, “The car has huge potential and that gives us all a bold feeling. What this weekend also demonstrated is that we are not where we want to be—but we have a masterplan!”

The truth is that the champions could regain their customary pole position slot in Malaysia this weekend—or they could qualify five-six again.

It depends on that masterplan. If the team made a set-up error in Melbourne that they are confident they can reverse, then they could be right on McLaren’s pace this weekend.

But if the car has a fundamental problem, then it might not be until the Formula One circus returns to Europe that we will see Red Bull back at the front.

Looking at the lap times, the fastest Red Bull in qualifying in Australia last year was on pole position. This year, the fastest car lined up fifth—some 0.85 percent off pole.

To put this into perspective, the fastest McLaren in qualifying last year was Lewis Hamilton’s example. He qualified second, but was 0.93 percent off Vettel’s pole position time.

This shows that the 2012 grid really is more competitive. It also shows that McLaren have stepped forward more than Red Bull over the winter—almost two percent more.

That’s huge in Formula One and would certainly suggest that Red Bull simply lost their way in qualifying in Australia.

Looking at the other teams, the majority have moved forward when compared to last year. In other words, they are closer to the pole-position time.

Despite appearing to have stayed static relative to their opposition, Caterham (called Lotus last year) has moved forward the most. Last year it was 6.85 percent from pole, this year the team is 4.42 percent from pole. That’s down to Caterham using KERS this year and Red Bull’s 2011 drivetrain.

The only team other than Red Bull to have moved backwards this year is Ferrari. As the graph shows, it has lost 0.12 percent over the winter.

It’s extremely likely that Red Bull will reverse this trend in Malaysia. If they qualified fifth and sixth again, it really would be a surprise.

However, can the same be said about Ferrari?