Derrick Rose's Leadership Will Carry Bruised Bulls to NBA Finals

Derrick Rose might be beat up.

The Chicago Bulls might have had more injuries than any team that that's eyeing the NBA Championship.

They might have seen their MVP miss more games than in all other seasons of his career combined. 

Even though that's all true, here's another thing that's true. The Chicago Bulls have the best record in the NBA, the best road record in the NBA and have an average margin of victory of 8.64 points, best of any team in the NBA. 

You can quibble if you want about the minutia, but the overall picture can't be denied, namely that the Bulls success this year is a testament to their depth, character and quality.

Moreover, they're a team constructed with a sound, winning strategy, and it all centers around great defense and rebounding. This doesn't fit for exciting narrative though, so it gets glossed over for more colorful, less relevant story lines. 

Before a ball was ever tipped two things were written in stone by the media.

Oklahoma City would  get past their nemesis from last year, and the Chicago Bulls would not. The narrative was written before the season came to pass and as a result what's happened during the season has been largely dismissed. 

The Bulls, the narrative says, didn't win in the finals last year because Derrick Rose "didn't have help." That is, admittedly, part of the reason, but to proffer that as the entire reason isn't accurate.

When we set aside the story line and look at the reality, it offers considerable insight into how this year's presumed Eastern Conference Final will play out. 

The Bulls and Heat each won four games between the preseason and the postseason last season. In the four wins the Bulls out-rebounded the Heat by a total of 44. In their four losses, they only had nine more rebounds.

Last season on the whole the Heat were 5-12 in games where their opponents had an advantage of at least five net rebounds, a figure the Bulls reached 51 times. However in the NBA Finals, with Joakim Noah experiencing a sprained ankle, Carlos Boozer suffering from turf toe and Omer Asik (who averaged 13.4 rebounds per 36 minutes against the Heat) missing all but the first game, the Bulls struggled to rebound after the first game. 

Sniveling about how those are just "excuses" is obtuse.

It ignores the reality that hobbled NBA players don't jump as well or that that affects players ability to rebound. You call them excuses, I call them reasons.

To-MA-to, to-MAH-to? Not really.

Perhaps if you're looking at things historically, but certainly not if you are looking at things predicatively. One can't assume the same injuries are going to be present. Certainly one can reason that a lack of them could have an impact, particularly when the rest of the history supports that conclusion. 

Say what you want about whether that's excuses or reasons or whatever. The thing you can't deny though is that the change in rebounding had nothing to do with Derrick Rose not having a second shooter who could create his ow shots. 

This year the Bulls have played the Heat twice. In the first game the Heat had one more rebound than the Bulls, who were without Luol Deng. In the other game, a game where the Bulls were with Deng, but without Rose, they had 16 more rebounds than the Heat and won.

It's a pretty established history. When the Bulls dominate the boards against the Heat when they win. When they don't dominate the boards against the Heat they lose. Certainly there are other things at play, but again, let's not let narrative get in the way of reality. 

In games where the Bulls have won the battle of the boards the last two seasons, they are 92-22 against the league. When the Heat have lost it, they are 30-31. 

It's not that the Heat aren't a good rebounding team. In fact last year they were first in the NBA in rebounding differential, as they grabbed 7.5 more boards than their opponents. The Bulls meanwhile were only second, at 7.3 

Flash forward to this year, where the Bulls are first at 8.6 more rebounds than their opponents per game. The Heat are now only second, at 8.2 per game. Both teams have improved, but the Bulls have improved more than the Heat, and have bye-passed them. 

While the Bulls have had their problems with injuries to the backcourt, this year they've been to the backcourt. Last year they were to the frontcourt. 

This might seem like a lot semantics but it's not. The Bulls score 109.0 points per 100 possessions, exactly the same number as the Miami Heat. The two teams are tied for the second best Offensive Rating in the NBA behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Why are the Bulls so efficient offensively?

Rebounds, particularly of the offensive variety. They grab 32.8 percent of all rebounds available on the offensive end. Meanwhile the Heat only recover 73.1 percent of defensive rebounds, which places them 18th in the NBA. 

Last year the Bulls were only fourth in offensive rebound percentage while the Heat were fifth. 

The primary reason that the Bulls have gotten more efficient offensively is offensive rebounding, and that's something the Heat have gotten much less effective at preventing. 

That's not something that goes away because the magical playoffs start either. We can focus on the dozen plays last postseason where LeBron James, along with some help defense so called, "shut down" Derrick Rose last year and assume that whatever happened last year is destined to repeat itself or we can look at the trends which span thousand of plays and hundreds of games. 

Call me a stat geek, but I believe that the second is far more relevant.

Yes, it's true the Heat won the playoff series, but it's also true that they have yet to beat the Bulls with their frontcourt intact and healthy. The Bulls have beaten the Heat every time it is. 

The playoffs might change some things, but it doesn't change rebounding. Injuries change that, and the Bulls all have healthy feet, ankles and legs right now. If we look at the reality, and not the narrative, analysis indicates that Derrick Rose will lead the Bulls past the Heat and to the NBA finals.