Fantasy Baseball: My Projected First Round

Most drafts are still a month to six weeks or more away, but let’s take a look at where people might go in that all important first round. 

Many people sweat, and research, and give themselves ulcers over who they might select in the first round. Most of the time you will get a guy who will carry your team all year long with your first pick, but sometimes due to injury or other factors you get a dud. 

A bad pick in the first round puts your team in a tough spot right off the bat.

If I was picking the entire first round, the order would be as follows:

1.  Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins. A no brainer in my opinion, the guy helps you in virtually every category.  He is going to hit .280-.300, bang out 25-35 homers, score 120 runs, steal 35-50 bases, and drive in 65-90 runs. 

Maybe the RBI are a little low, but if you can get all of that from one guy how can you pass that up.  Oh yeah, and he plays a premium position at shortstop and he’s only 25 years old.

2.  Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals. Last season, Pujols fell in many drafts after word of an elbow injury that would threaten his season if the Cardinals fell out of contention, which seemed likely.

Well, the Cards hung around for far longer than we expected and Albert just continued to put up the same numbers he always has.  You just can’t get any more consistent option than Pujols, you know you will get production from this guy. 

In his eight year career he has never hit below .314, never hit less than 32 homers, never driven in less than 103 runs, and has scored at least 100 runs in every season but one...And he scored 99 runs.

He usually throws in a half dozen stolen bases to go with it.  You tell me who in baseball has ever been so good.

3. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees. Another superstud, A-Rod falls slightly below Pujols just because he tends to have completely incredible seasons, but every couple of years throws up one that is well below what you would expect.

Of course, even those seasons that he disappoints are still first-round-pick worthy. Take last season for example, .302/35/103/18. Great year, right? Well, it is pretty far cry from his .314/54/156/24 from 2007. 

Now obviously you can’t expect that every year, but you would like him to be more consistent. Hell, I’m grasping at straws here, the guy is great at compiling stats...as long as he doesn’t have to hit in the clutch!!!

4. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets. It took me a few years to come around on Wright, but last season I finally changed my mind. The guy is awesome. His average and steals dropped some last year, but his power numbers went up to make up for it. 

He is always good for 155-160 games a year which is very important, you would hate to lose this high a pick to injury for any stretch of time. Wright will always hit over .300, hit 30 homers and drive in well over 100 runs.

He should get back to around 20 steals again in ‘09 and is in the middle of a good lineup.  Nothing not to like here.

5.  Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers. After his fantastic rookie season there were many questions going into 2008 about Braun.  Well, he answered them all emphatically last year. 

He didn’t hit the .324 that he did in his rookie season, but .285 is still very respectable.  Many, including myself, didn’t think that he would run nearly as much as he did in his first year, but Braun stole just one less base in 2008 as compared to 2007. 

Of course, he played in many more games, but the fact is he was still active on the basepaths.  But the guy can flat out rake. He just turned 25 years old and there’s no reason to think that he can’t possibly even get better.

6.  Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets. If you think Jose Reyes is only about stealing bases then you are missing the big picture. Ok, so he isn’t Prince Fielder, but if you can get a shortstop to hit you 15-20 homers AND steal 50-70 bases, oh that is enticing. 

Don’t miss the fact that he very nearly hit .300 last season, scored over 110 runs, hit 19 triples and even drove in 68 runs while compiling over 200 hits. Shortstop isn’t as shallow as it used to be, but you gotta try and get one of the elite. Reyes is a multi-category star, and you would be wise to pick him early.

7.  Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians. There are only two concerns that I have about Grady Sizemore. One is that he strikes out a ton and his batting average is not nearly as high as you would like it to be. 

Second, he plays the outfield with such reckless abandon that injury is always a possibility. The guy has no fear of crashing into walls or making diving catches. What he is, though, is a fantasy stud.

He has elevated his game over the past couple of years to heights we didn’t imagine. He was 30/30 for the first time last year, and nearly got his steals to the 40 plateau.  He has yet to crack 100 RBI, but that is coming. 

There’s a little more risk here than with the first six guys, but Sizemore is a fantastic pick if you are selecting in this spot.

8.  Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers. Why does it feel like this guy has been around forever?  Cabrera and the Tigers got off to an awful start to 2008, but at least Miggy was able to salvage his season from a fantasy perspective. 

He had career highs in both homers and RBI, but his average, runs scored, hits, and doubles all declined for the third straight year. Cabrera is a safe, consistent pick, but there are some concerns about him with the dropping statistics. 

If you could get .292/37/124 from him again in ‘09 I think all fantasy owners would sign on for that right away. Since he is built like Butterbean, his days of stealing a handful of bases is officially over, but he does put up other great numbers every year.

9.  Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees. As a Yankee Hater, this was the signing that bothered me because Teixeira is damn good. Not sure how a guy this good is about to be on his fourth team since the start of 2007, but that is where he stands. 

Tex is a professional hitter who falls down the rankings a bit because he won’t bring you the speed that some of the guys in front of him might give and he has one little problem.

The guy gets off to horrible starts to the season.  Every year by June everyone who drafted this guy is ready to jump off a bridge because their early pick is dragging the team down.

And yet every year when you look at the back of the baseball card the numbers are always strikingly similar.

10.  Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies. The power is astounding but the average keeps dropping, and dropping, and dropping, while the strikeouts keep rising, and rising, and rising. If the average falls too much farther you will be looking at another incarnation of Adam Dunn.

However, if you are looking for home runs, you will find no better source than Ryan Howard. He hits in a small little ballpark which always helps the power numbers, and that’s not going to change. In three full seasons he has never had less than 47 homers, but in those three years his batting average has gone from .313 down to .251.

I have confidence that it will bounce back to at least around .275 in 2009 and Howard should be a great pick in fantasy drafts if you get a late first round selection.

11. Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets. I’m pretty sure that I have never selected a pitcher this high in a draft, but if the board plays out this way on your selection day, I think Santana is the next, best guy in line.  He is great at every single pitching statistic. 

He wins games (now that they Mets’ bullpen is stronger he will win more), he strikes out over 200 guys, his ERA is in the 2.00s range, his WHIP is in the 1.00-1.20 range, and the guy is just plain durable. He has made 33 or 34 starts in every season since becoming a full time starter and there is no reason to think that 2009 will be any different. 

He is to pitching what Albert Pujols is to hitting. You can pretty much write in his statistics at the beginning of April and you will be very close at the end of the year.

12.  Josh Hamilton, CF, Texas Rangers. The feel good story of 2008 looks to build upon his breakout season.  His RBI totals faded badly down the stretch, but if you look at his whole season, those are first round numbers.

There’s just not anything to dislike here. He hit for a good average, hit 30+ homers, finished with 130 RBI and even stole nine bases. A victim of the home-run-derby curse, Hamilton should put up another monster year statistically and lead your fantasy team throughout the year.

More thoughts from this mock:

• If Chase Utley is able to come back healthy and be ready for Opening Day, he crashes this party like Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson. I have seen some reports that Utley may indeed be ready to start the season and not miss the first two months like was originally believed. If he is ready, slide him in the rankings just behind David Wright, and I mean JUST behind him.
• That last pick took a long time to finalize, it could go a number of different directions. After the first 11 picks of the draft, the next five to seven picks are all incredibly similar in talent, expectations, and question marks. I could have gone with B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler, Jimmy Rollins, or even Alfonso Soriano. Most of the second round should bring surprisingly similar value.
• I am not a huge proponent of selecting a pitcher in the first round, but I couldn’t find the next hitter that I liked better than Santana who wasn’t without a good deal of question marks.  Santana to me, is the next thing closest to a sure thing.

Of course, your comments/questions are always welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.