Peyton Manning Rumors: 5 Reasons the 49ers Must Get in on the Action for No. 18

While San Francisco 49ers GM Trent Baalke immediately ruled out potentially signing free-agent QB Peyton Manning, that hasn’t stopped some from hoping the San Francisco 49ers change their stance in regard to No. 18. 

Although Manning is undoubtedly a risky proposition, could the 49ers be making mistake in not making an attempt to sign the future Hall of Famer?  With last year’s starting QB Alex Smith currently a free agent, the 49ers still have the ability to make a late run at Manning.

This article takes a look at five reasons why the 49ers must get in on the action for Manning.

Alex Smith

Obviously, for the ‘Niners to be thought of as a potential destination for Manning there has to be a problem with the current QB. (Even though he is a free agent it is widely expected that Smith will return to the 49ers.) Despite the fact that Smith is coming off a career year this past season, questions still remain as to whether Smith is capable of leading the team to the Super Bowl.

Smith did a phenomenal job protecting the ball in 2011, throwing only five interceptions, but besides that he was average to below average in most other QB metrics.  For instance, Smith’s average of 197 passing yards put him 27th out of 34 possible QB’s. 

The argument that this is a result of the 49ers' conservative play-calling is flawed in itself.  By running such a conservative game plan the coaches are saying they don’t trust Smith enough to open up the playbook.

Past History

At 28 years old, Smith’s 2011 season is likely the peak of his potential. Is this enough to lead the ‘Niners to a Super Bowl victory? 

That's certainly up for debate as Smith did lead the 49ers to within a game of the Super Bowl in 2011, but as history has proved it's tough to win the big one with an average QB. 

Looking at the QB’s that have played in the last five Super Bowls—Eli Manning (twice), Tom Brady (twice), Ben Roethlisberger (twice), Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers—is pretty good evidence that you need an elite QB to make the Super Bowl.

Through his seven years Smith has proved to be nothing better than an average QB. With a similar roster as last season's in 2012, the 49ers are primed for another deep run in the playoffs. Unless you believe Smith is an elite QB like those mentioned above—which you shouldn’t—it's hard to envision the ‘Niners topping last season's run to the NFC Championship Game in 2012.

Regression to the Mean

As previously mentioned, the ‘Niners will return a roster that is very similar to last season's team, but an encore performance shouldn’t be expected. Last season’s team achieved its 13-3 record based on a series of circumstances that are unlikely to occur again in 2012. 

A prime example of this was 49ers' plus-28 turnover margin in 2011, which was a key factor in the team's record.  History says that it's extremely unlikely the team will be able to replicate this in 2012.

Also helping the 49ers was their extreme good luck in staying healthy.  Additionally, the NFC West was arguably the worst division in the NFL last season.  Even though the ‘Niners are likely to be top team in the NFC West again in 2012, the division should be stronger than it was in 2011.

If the 49ers come back down to earth in turnover margin and are faced with more injuries—both likely—in 2012, the team will have less margin for error than it had in 2011.  To overcome this, the 49ers will likely need more production from their offense.

Is Smith capable of leading the 49ers offense to greater production in 2012?

Surrounding Pieces

It’s not a stretch to say that if the 49ers had an elite QB to pair with their current roster that they would be Super Bowl favorites. The parts surrounding Smith at QB are simply that good.

The ‘Niners in 2012 will feature an elite defensive unit that possesses no obvious weakness.  On the offensive side of the ball the ground game is potent behind Frank Gore and a solid offensive line. There are even a decent group of receivers led by superstar TE Vernon Davis and WR’s Michael Crabtree and Randy Moss.

Not to be forgotten, the 49ers special teams unit should also be one of the premier units in the NFL in 2012.

Really, the only thing holding back the ‘Niners is the man under center. 

It's Peyton Manning

As previously mentioned, signing Peyton Manning would be taking a chance due to Manning’s serious neck injury that sidelined him for the entirety last season, but for the 49ers the risk may be worth taking. 

With almost half of the teams in the NFL calling in to express interest in Manning there has to be strong evidence that Manning is capable of surviving the rigors of being an NFL QB. 

If Manning is healthy and performs reasonably close to his pre-injury level he would be a clear upgrade over Smith.  Manning would allow the ‘Niners to open up the playbook and feature an attacking offense instead of last season’s conservative unit. 

While Smith should be commended for his work last season the chance to sign Manning is something the ‘Niners should not pass up.