A Break from Winter: 2009 Boston Red Sox Preview

While none of Boston's moves have been as splashy as the Mark Teixeira signing, Theo Epstein and company have been busy at work, rifling through the bargain bin and filling in some minor roster holes. As we sit today, the moves potentially give the club one of the most balanced rosters in baseball and a shot at playing deep into the fall once again.

Why potential? Well, that dreaded I word—injury.

Because it's about negative-10 outside, and because the Red Sox roster is changing by the day, it's as good a time as any to talk baseball. Enjoy this mid-January preview of what to look for at Fenway Park in 2009.

Projected Lineup

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
David Ortiz, DH
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Mike Lowell, 3B
Jason Bay, LF
J.D. Drew, RF
Jed Lowrie, SS
Josh Bard, C

Laden with veterans, the Red Sox return nearly everyone that contributed to one of 2008's best offenses in baseball. Lest you forget, the team ranked third in the bigs in batting average, runs, and slugging last year. While only 12th in the sexy home runs category, Boston led the majors in on-base percentage.

In short, they got on the bases and were able to drive each other in without necessarily knocking the ball over the fence—a departure from previous incarnations.

For most teams in most cities, the above paragraph would be considered a good thing heading into the next season. But this is Boston, and after losing out on Teixeira's injury insurance bat, there are some concerns about age.

Both Ortiz and Lowell are coming off injury-plagued seasons, with the latter months removed from hip surgery. Drew will miss at least 20 games guaranteed based on history and played in just 109 games last season due to various ailments. The bench could play a big role this year, but we'll get there in a minute.

With the reigning MVP in Dustin Pedroia (seen left), an MVP candidate in Kevin Youkilis, and a full season out of Jason Bay, there is sufficient reason to believe Boston can weather the injury storm if they are just minor bumps and short DL stints.

I think the story to watch is what type of season Jacoby Ellsbury puts together. Coming off a 50-steal '08, Ellsbury hit .280 but had a low OBP of .336 and just 41 walks. With Coco Crisp now gone, the leadoff spot is Ellsbury's job unless he bombs, and he needs to be a better place setter for the big bats down the lineup. He can run, but can he show plate discipline?

The Bench

Gone are Crisp, Sean Casey, and Kevin Cash—replaced by Rhode Island native Rocco Baldelli, a returning Mark Kotsay, and presumably George Kottaras if Jason Varitek truly is gone forever. One also has to assume that Julio Lugo will begin the year on the bench and spell Lowrie at shortstop if he goes into a slump or on the days he plays third to give Lowell a rest.

I get the feeling that the Lowrie/Lugo combo will be similar to what Ellsbury and Crisp did a year ago, just with lower offensive expectations. Keep in mind that Lowrie was a rookie last season, so there's going to be a period where he struggles. Hopefully, Lugo can answer the call when needed.

While a great story, the 27-year-old Baldelli (.263/4/13 in 28 games) is a bit of a question mark, as he's been injury-riddled over the past three seasons. The potential is there, and they simply need him (seen left) to be ready to step in when Drew inevitably goes down.

Kotsay also provides outfield depth and showed some great first base skills at Fenway at the end of last season. It's about 50/50 that Kottaras (.243/22/65 at AAA Pawtucket) will start the year in Boston, but it seems more and more likely by the day.

(Side note: This whole Varitek situation could be its own book....or at least a short story, couldn't it?)

Starting Pitching

SP Josh Beckett
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP Jon Lester
SP Brad Penny
SP Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/John Smoltz

You can't ask for more at the top of your rotation than Beckett, Dice-K, and Lester—proven big-game winners that all have World Series victories under their belts. Lester (16-6, 3.21) emerged as the staff ace as Beckett struggled most of the year, but will likely return to the three-hole in the rotation.

Meanwhile, Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90) finished fourth in the Cy Young voting and was mostly disregarded because of his high walk totals and struggles to finish out games. Just because he walks a lot of batters doesn't mean he's not a good pitcher, something many Red Sox grumblers failed to realize.

As they have done in years past with Wade Miller and Bartolo Colon, Epstein is taking some low-risk, high-reward gambles with the signings of Penny (seen here) and Smoltz. Both are National Leaguers taking their first turns in the AL, and both are coming off major shoulder surgery.

If you're looking for reasons to believe, Penny is just a season removed from back-to-back 16-win campaigns and could be in line for a big contract if he puts together a solid 2009.

Smoltz won't be ready until at least June 1, and the shorter season may do his veteran body well.

With plenty of young arms ready to help out (Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson out of the 'pen), the Red Sox have a luxury others want: starting pitching, and a lot of it.

But what of Clay Buchholz? No one seems to know what to make of the 24-year-old, thanks in part to the no-hitter he threw in 2007—arguably the worst thing to happen to his career because of the lofty expectations it set. The fact he's dating a Penthouse Pet didn't help either...great score though.

But it's easy to forget that he's tossed just 20 major league games in two seasons and is regarded as one of the organization's top young pitchers and most-discussed players in trades. It's easy to get impatient when you're looking at the guy in the fishbowl. Let's see how he swims this year before flushing him down the toilet, eh?

Our guess—he starts the year in Pawtucket and Wakefield takes the fifth spot in the rotation.

The Bullpen

Javy Lopez, L
Manny Delcarmen, R
Ramon Ramirez, R
Takashi Saito, R
Jonathan Papelbon, R
Justin Masterson, R
Hideki Okajima, L

One of the more frustrating parts of last year's team has now become a strength on paper. No more David Aardsma or Chris Smith-types giving out long balls and long innings, as this group is potentially lights-out with Jonathan Papelbon (41 saves, 2.34 ERA) providing the ninth inning axe once again.

Okajima (64 appearances, 2.61 ERA) bounced back from some early-season struggles to put together a nice 2008. Combine those two with seventh inning stud Masterson and new additions Ramirez (71 games, 2.64 ERA) and former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito (18 saves, 2.49 ERA in 45 games), and you've to got to like their chances when they're called upon.

With a staff that is known for going deep in games, this bullpen is going to be well-rested with plenty of moving parts in '09, a big plus if they make the postseason.

Five Questions That Need Answering

- Is it a guarantee that Lowrie is the team's starting shortstop, and/or will Lugo surprise some people with the numbers he puts up?

- Which Beckett will we see this season: the '07 version (20-7, 3.27, 194 Ks) or the '08 version (12-10, 4.03, 174 innings pitched)?

- Will Bard really be the team's starting catcher on Opening Day?

- What should we expect from Wakefield, and will he log more bullpen time than starting?

- How good can Jason Bay be with a healthy lineup in front of him?

Projected 2009 25-Man Roster

C - Josh Bard
C - George Kottaras
1B - Kevin Youkilis
1B/OF - Mark Kotsay
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Jed Lowrie
SS - Julio Lugo
3B - Mike Lowell
DH - David Ortiz
LF - Jason Bay
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury
RF - JD Drew
OF - Rocco Baldelli
SP - Josh Beckett
SP - Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP - Jon Lester
SP - Brad Penny
SP - Tim Wakefield
RP - Jonathan Papelbon
RP - Hideki Okajima
RP - Javy Lopez
RP - Takashi Saito
RP - Manny Delcarmen
RP - Ramon Ramirez
RP - Justin Masterson

I just realized it's only mid-January, but it sure feels like summer to me.

Josh Nason—josh [at] smallwhiteball [com]—is the publisher and main writer of Small White Ball, an all-encompassing sports blog that began in 2007. You can also read on mixed martial arts, boxing, and pro wrestling at brother site RopesRingandCage.com. If you're using any part of this post, please link back to www.smallwhiteball.com. Thank you!