Colts to Trade DE Dwight Freeney: Odds Each AFC North Team Makes a Play

Rumors are circulating today that the Indianapolis Colts are fielding trade calls for defensive end Dwight Freeney.

It would make sense—the Colts are clearly embarking on a wholesale reboot this offseason, and the switch to a 3-4 defense under new head coach (and former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator) Chuck Pagano doesn't play to Freeney's strengths.

Dwight Freeney, Career vs. 2011 Stats

	Games	Tackles	Sacks	FF	FR
Career	149	286	102.5	43	3
2011	16	19	8.5	2	0

Plus, the Colts just signed fellow defensive end Robert Mathis to a $36 million deal worth $17 million in 2012; Freeney's reportedly owed $19 million in 2012, all of which counts against the salary cap. This makes him a potential cap casualty, especially as he is 32 years old and nearing the end of his career.

If there's one thing the AFC North is known for it is defense, so it makes sense that at least one of its four teams will reach out to the Colts about a trade for Freeney. Let's take a look at how realistic adding him is for each team in the division.

Baltimore Ravens

Pagano said in January that he believes Freeney could switch from a 4-3 defensive end to a 3-4 outside linebacker in his hybrid system, citing the success Wade Phillips had in Houston switching the team from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in 2011.

However, a coach believing that a player can be flexible and switch from one position to another is quite different from that player being willing to do so.

Freeney has said that he wants to stay with the Colts for the last year of his contract, but that shift to outside linebacker might not be what he's interested in doing, considering he's spent the entirely of his 10-year career as a defensive end.

If Freeney is opposed to switching positions, then there's little chance that the Baltimore Ravens will want to make a move for him.

The Ravens promoted linebackers coach Dean Pees to be their defensive coordinator when Pagano left, and chances are that Pees doesn't want to worry about bringing in such a big name as Freeney and making a spot for him when the Ravens defense is already so well-established.

Further, there are also salary cap issues to consider. The Ravens are still trying to retain some of their own impending free agents and also want to put together a long-term deal with quarterback Joe Flacco. Negotiations with running back Ray Rice are also ongoing.

With Freeney's base salary worth $14 million this year, unless Baltimore is dead-set on him (which I don't anticipate them being), then they won't try to trade for such an expensive player. It's just not the right fit, despite his considerable talent.

Chance the Ravens kick Freeney's tires: Five percent

Pittsburgh Steelers

Let's see—the Pittsburgh Steelers have been running a 3-4 defense longer than any other team in the NFL, they are right up against this year's salary cap and will likely only want to go younger when it comes to making additions to their linebacking corps this season.

Freeney's age, price tag and 4-3 pedigree means that while the Steelers likely respect what he brings to the table, it is nearly impossible that they'd make an inquiry.

Chances the Steelers kick Freeney's tires: Zero percent

Cleveland Browns

With a good deal of salary cap room to play with this offseason (though general manager Tom Heckert said yesterday the team won't "sign a ton of free agents" this year), a very real need is to improve their pass rush and 4-3 defensive scheme. Freeney could be a smart addition to the Cleveland Browns' roster.

The only thing that would prevent the Browns from signing him is his age. Freeney is 32 years old, and the Browns need to move away from adding players who can't contribute for four or more years. Stability is key to the team at every position, and while Freeney could be a significant short-term fix, he won't be with the team for long.

The Browns certainly need another defensive end to pair with Jabaal Sheard, who was the only consistent pass rusher they fielded in 2011, and the leadership that Freeney would bring to the entire defense is an added benefit.

I think that Cleveland would be wise to pursue Mario Williams in free agency, who will also be expensive but won't come fully-equipped with a $14 million salary in 2012. But Williams is going to be in high demand, and the Browns can afford Freeney's salary, especially if they can restructure it.

If anything, the Browns would be well-served to give Freeney a call—he doesn't have an agent, so I am supposing he's fielding these calls himself.

Chances the Browns kick Freeney's tires: 60 percent

Cincinnati Bengals

Much like the Browns, the Bengals have a ton of cap space (around $40 million or so), a need to improve their pass rush and a 4-3 base defense.

Also, the Bengals aren't mired in a seemingly-endless rebuild as the Browns have been, meaning that they're in no danger should they want to add the 32-year-old Freeney to their roster for a season or two. 

The Bengals' pass rush was considerably better than the Browns' in 2011, but that doesn't mean there's not room for improvement, and in a year when the team has that much money to work with, they could easily make a move for a player as expensive as Freeney.

What depends in this case is how long-term the Bengals would be looking when it comes to adding a defensive end. If they value the leadership that Freeney would provide over his ability to play at a high level for three or four years, then he's worth the pickup.

But if they'd rather have someone who is both proven and can contribute for a number of years, they could certainly go after Mario Williams instead. They can easily afford him.

Chances the Bengals kick Freeney's tires: 65 percent

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