NHL Playoffs 2012: The Most Reasonable Goals for Each Postseason Contender

No team ought to enter the Stanley Cup playoffs expressly striving to be one of the 15 who fall short. But shy of a captain’s handshake and photo op with commissioner Gary Bettman, what would at least be an attainable and satisfactory result for playoff-bound teams or those who still have a chance to make the bracket?

In the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders have too many rivals to leapfrog. And similar to Montreal, the Tampa Bay Lightning have too many key figures on injured reserve to sustain, let alone complete, a late rally through the homestretch.

In the West, the same basic scenario holds true for Anaheim, Minnesota, Edmonton and Columbus.

But for the other 21 teams, it is still worth entertaining a prospective playoff run. Each will now be assessed based on what they and their rooters can and should expect of them, assuming they are not to be the 2012 champions.

Let’s start with the Eastern Conference.

New York Rangers: Conference or Cup Final

Fourth-year head coach John Tortorella has had this group thriving on playoff-type hockey for the majority of this season. By buying into his approach, the Rangers have been rewarded with a near coast to first place in the Eastern Conference and the summit of an impressively competitive Atlantic Division.

When the calendar morphs to April, at which point there will be four regular-season games left, Tortorella would be shrewd to give most of his key pupils a little rest, but also make sure to avoid rust.

Barring a sudden, overwhelming plague of injuries, there is no reason why the battle-tested Blueshirts should not be posing with the Prince of Wales Trophy this spring. But naturally, there is no guarantee they will be, either. In addition to every playoff adversary, they need to be on guard against complacency.

Pittsburgh: Conference or Cup Final

This will depend largely on Sidney Crosby. If he is back in action as promised and making the same impact he did upon his last comeback effort, Penguins fans could dream about a return to the Cup final and be taken seriously.

But it should be noted that for every Penguin capable of saturating the score sheet, there is at least one Ranger willing and able to block opposing shots and body check or blanket opposing forecheckers. That, along with Henrik Lundqvist out-dueling Marc-Andre Fleury, could spell the difference in the event of a second- or third-round encounter.

And for this franchise, just returning to the NHL’s final four after a three-year absence is an enticing proposition, especially if everybody is healthy. And even if Crosby is not playing up to Crosby-esque proportions, Pittsburgh should certainly not settle for a first-round falter a la last season.

Boston: Conference Final

If Tim Thomas is sufficiently rested and driven, if Rich Peverley has something in him post-injury and if the likes of Andrew Ference and Daniel Paille can join back in, Boston should have what it needs for another deep run.

While residual wear and tear from last season and this season will complicate their endeavor for a repeat championship, the Bruins should also have enough motivation to fuel their balanced roster through two or three rounds. They certainly do not want to regress to first- or second-round exits so soon after they finally surmounted that hurdle and won over their demanding fanbase.

Philadelphia: Conference Semifinal or Final

Goaltenders Ilya Bryzgalov and Sergei Bobrovsky are still looking mediocre, at best, and are still unproven in the postseason, which is difficult enough to overcome. Even for a league-leading offense with two-plus lines full of double-digit goal scorers.

And there are questions as to how much Philadelphia’s allotment of forwards and defensemen can compensate for their injuries―particularly those to Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen and James van Riemsdyk.

Still, the Flyers need not be written off in the first or even the second round. The least they can ask for is not to be abolished in the conference quarterfinals.

New Jersey: Conference Semifinal

The Devils stand a good chance of finishing sixth in the East, which will mean being paired up with the Southeast Division “champion” for the first round.

Not only is there no reason why they could not win that series―whether it be against the Panthers, Capitals or Jets—but furthermore, the Devils are going on five years without winning a playoff series and are still trying to kick ice chips over last season, when they missed the dance for the first time in 15 years.

With their division and conference as competitive as they are, reaching the third round this year is a stretch, at best. But getting to the second round would revamp ageless executive Lou Lamoriello’s credibility in a timely manner.

Washington: Conference Quarterfinal or Semifinal

Seeing as the playoffs themselves are no guarantee, a third consecutive appearance in the second round is probably too lofty of a proposition, especially with Nicklas Backstrom on injured reserve.

But try telling the Capitals’ long-suffering fanbase to stay patient with this franchise and its recent history. The final outcome of Washington’s 2011-12 season is all but sure to hurt, no matter how or when the Caps finish falling down.

Ottawa: Conference Quarterfinal

The impact of their hot streaks has outweighed that of their cold spells, and now the Senators are making a mild threat for first place in the Northeast Division. Six months ago, The Hockey News picked them to finish last in the East, yet they should have little trouble cementing seventh or eighth place down the homestretch.

Ottawa fans should be sure to keep looking from that vantage point, regardless of who they face in the first round. If the Sens muster the sixth seed and face a Southeast Division club, they will have a fighting chance for extra gravy. Otherwise, just being among the last 16 teams standing should suffice for this season.

Florida: Conference Quarterfinal

This franchise is 12 years and six coaching changes removed from its last playoff appearance. Enough said.

Winnipeg: Conference Quarterfinal

Jets fans rightly and understandably have taken the Nuke Laloosh approach to the inaugural season of their new NHL team. They are just happy to have them around.

But boy, would the two or three extra games at the MTS Centre in April ever put the exclamation point on the “We’re back” cry in Winnipeg? And wouldn’t it be something for this franchise to win a playoff game or two in their first season as the Jets when they could not win one in over 11 seasons as the Atlanta Thrashers?

If that were to happen, it would speak not only to the fanbase, but to the new-found incentive all of the holdovers from Atlanta have in their new office.

Buffalo: Conference Quarterfinal

If all of the Southeast Division teams failing to finish first finish out of the bracket, it will likely be because the Sabres had their say down the homestretch. Goaltender Ryan Miller has personified a timely turnaround after a false start in the autumn, going 12-3-3 since the last game before the All-Star break.

(For what it’s worth, Buffalo had Jhonas Enroth giving Miller a breather in Thursday night’s loss to Boston.)

If Miller and the Sabres had retained their early-season form, they would not be in this discussion. But now that they are, they have their fans wondering if they are going to reach their third consecutive postseason or miss their third dance in five years. The difference in sentimental impact between those two possibilities is bigger than it may appear.

And now for the Western Conference:

Vancouver: Conference or Cup Final

It is hard to tell if the returning core can sustain enough energy to get to the championship round in back-to-back years. But having come within one win of the title and falling short, thus failing to follow up on a Presidents' Trophy-winning campaign, the Canucks and their fans should have the maximum allotment of hunger.

All things considered, no one with an emotional investment in the team should settle for anything short of another journey to the Cup final. But getting back to the Western Conference final on top of last year’s exhausting run would still be impressive enough.

Detroit: Conference or Cup Final

If their otherworldly home record translates to the postseason, the Red Wings should be in a favorable position to get over the second-round hurdle that has hampered them in the previous two runs. That is especially true if they manage to win the Central Division and thereby claim either first or second place in the Western Conference.

Although, regardless of who is healthy come playoff time, Detroit could still feel the cumulative effect of recent injuries to goaltender Jimmy Howard and skaters Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom, Todd Bertuzzi and Jonathan Ericsson. Getting past the conference semifinals is no sure thing.

Nashville: Conference Final

Banking on the gelling of their post-deadline roster―complete with additives Hal Gill, Paul Gaustad and Andrei Kostitsyn―it is time for Nashville to set sights on new heights.

Head coach Barry Trotz, whose 14-year tenure behind the bench is as old as the franchise, finally won his first NHL playoff series last spring. That was following six no-shows and five first-round falters.

Now, with the new acquisitions joining the learned core group, there can be no stalling and certainly no turning back. Managing or failing to at least reach the Western Conference championship round could be a difference-maker in terms of keeping soon-to-be free agents, such as Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Colin Wilson.

St. Louis: Conference Semifinal or Final

The Blues have arguably the NHL’s most effective goaltending tandem in the regular season. But they will have to ride either Brian Elliott or Jaraslav Halak, whose only major Stanley Cup playoff experience was a Cinderella run with Montreal two years ago.

Furthermore, the outcome of their Central Division footrace with the Red Wings could spell the difference between a languishing Pacific Division tenant or Pekka Rinne’s Predators in the first round.

Whether it burns them right away or a little later, this team figures to face a fiery baptism this spring.

It may not be excessively surprising if St. Louis gets as far as the third round, especially with the fruitful veteran presence of Jason Arnott. But Blues buffs should be prepared to settle for an appearance in the conference semifinal and look forward to midseason replacement coach Ken Hitchcock building upon his foundation next year.

Chicago: Conference Semifinal

As the standings reach right now, the Blackhawks are perched firmly into the same scenario as the Devils and Senators are alternating between out east. Finishing sixth will all but inevitably mean facing whoever wins the Pacific Division, where no one will break the 80-point plateau until at least their 68th game.

But the battle-tested Blackhawks, who trail three divisional rivals, still figure to have an uphill battle. It does not matter if they face a fellow Central team, Vancouver or a team from the Pacific, which they are a cumulative 8-9-1 against.

By the same token, reaching the NHL’s elite eight for the third time in four years should give Chicago fans a moderate dose of satisfaction.

San Jose: Conference Quarterfinal, Semifinal or Final

The Sharks have the broadest range of possible outcomes chiefly because they are sinking at the wrong time. They entered Thursday night’s game on a 4-11-3 cold streak dating back to Feb. 4.

Before that, they went on a 14-4-3 tear between Dec. 15 and Feb. 2. San Jose has also gone through a less-than-savory 2-5-2 run between Nov. 26 and Dec. 13 and a 12-2-1 romp between Oct. 21 and Nov. 23.

So, assuming they recover and move up in the standings or at least don’t let too many teams jump them, which version of Todd McLellan’s pupils will show up in April?

Can Antti Niemi perform at a level higher than his transcript would project? Can his skating mates charge up enough offensive support, exercise enough discipline and shore up the penalty kill to a level that would make a third straight conference final at least remotely feasible?

In terms of the fanbase’s patience and McLellan’s job security, that is what it will boil down to. But retaining, let alone elevating that final four standard is a tall order, at best.

Dallas: Conference Quarterfinal or Semifinal

The Stars’ boldest question mark should revolve around Kari Lehtonen's first postseason since he put in two appearances with Atlanta in 2007. This team’s best-case scenario would have them hanging on to win the Pacific Division and the automatic third seed, thus setting up a first-round date with Chicago or a divisional rival. At least there they could expect a fighting chance to win one series.

On the flip side, the worst-case scenario has Dallas tumbling down to seventh or eighth place and all but inevitably dealing with Vancouver, Detroit or St. Louis. Even reaching the playoffs is no guarantee, although missing would require a colossal slide with the Stars giving way to Phoenix, San Jose and Los Angeles and/or Colorado.

Phoenix: Conference Quarterfinal or Semifinal

It is probably in the Coyotes’ best interest to ask for the same situation as Dallas, whom they are 3-0-2 against so far in the season series. Assuming Phoenix stays in the playoff picture through the next month, its only hope of advancing any farther is a three-versus-six quarterfinal matchup.

Los Angeles: Conference Quarterfinal or Semifinal

Although the Kings entered Thursday night’s action on the wrong side of the 8-9 borderline, they also went into Columbus on a three-game winning streak. There is still time and space for them to bustle through San Jose, Phoenix and Dallas to either finish sixth or win the division and put Jonathan Quick in a position to steal them a first-round victory.

But the much greater likelihood and therefore more attainable goal is nabbing seventh or eighth place and then accepting the daunting challenge that comes from Vancouver or the Central Division champion.

Not the most favorable follow-up on last year, but not a bad way to respond to a midseason coaching change.

Colorado: Conference Quarterfinal

The Avs have never missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons since their 1995 arrival in Denver. But that will change this year if they cannot pole vault over two of the four Pacific Division teams still in the hunt.

If they can pull that off, though, the odds are in heavy favor of an encounter with the Canucks or the Central Division winners. And after what will have been a draining battle just to reach the top eight, the odds will be heavily against the 2012 Avalanche duplicating the 2007 Rockies.

Calgary: Conference Quarterfinal

Their fanbase is not quite as long-suffering as Toronto’s or even Florida’s (which does exist), but the Flames are without a single series victory since the lockout and facing the specter of three straight years out of the playoffs.

Seeded at No. 11 and trailing three teams in a virtual tie for eighth by two points before Thursday night’s action, Calgary will have to cram just to give its 2011-12 campaign an extension.

If the Flames can manage just that, it will need to suffice for the summer. End of story.