NL Central Preview 2008

Ahh, spring is in the air. It won't be long now until the 2008 baseball season kicks off. 

Even if spring isn't in your air, or even in your step, some baseball talk always warms the soul. What better time to prognosticate than now, since everyone has at least a mathematical chance to win their respective divisions.

Yes, mathematical, but we know better, don't we?

The focus today is on what is commonly perceived to be the weakest of the MLB divisions, the NL Central.

Cubs will win. Then promptly get blown out of the playoff water in three games by the (take your pick) Mets, Phillies, Rockies, Padres, Dodgers, or D'Backs (again?). 

End of story.

Wait, you want me to back up this bold prediction?  And yes, I said "bold" prediction.  

Despite the century long championship drought, one fact was brought to my attention recently that made me go, "hmmm" with even more shock and dismay:

The Cubs haven't posted back-to-back playoff seasons since 1916.  

You read that right, 1916.

So even though they are the odds-on favorites of the writers and other pundits, and are coming off a division title last year, it is still quite a statement to say that this will be the first Cubs team in 92 years to play October baseball in consecutive seasons.

Nevertheless, I firmly believe this to be true.

First off, Sweet Lou knows his club better so he shouldn't have to be shuffling the lineup and shuttling players via the Iowa Express as much this year.  

It's not as if the team doesn't have holes—who doesn't? But, the forgiving nature of the Central will allow the Cubs to overcome.

For one, they answered their need for a high OBP, somewhat speedy, left-handed hitter in winning the Fukudome derby. While he's going to be 31, has never played in the states, and is coming off of elbow surgery (remember, this is the Cubs, nothing can ever be as good as it looks), he should hit for average, and play a stellar right field for the club.

And if Hendry completes the long-rumored deal for Brian Roberts, they can move Soriano down to a run producing spot in the lineup and finally trot out a real live leadoff hitter.

Next, there's the pitching, which has decent depth, and two, maybe three solid starters in Zambrano, Lilly, and (ahem) Rich Hill, who may be on the verge of a breakout season.

Barring trades or injuries, Lieber and Marquis will likely fill out the rest of the rotation, meaning Dempster goes to the dumpster or returns to his closer role.

In any case, the bullpen should be stellar, with three strong set-up men/closers-in-waiting in Howry, Wood, and Marmol. They could use a better lefty than Scott Eyre, who struggled mightily last year, but look for the O's to spawn off George Sherrill, acquired in the Bedard deal, and the Cubs should be listening (two for one with Roberts?).    

While the Brew Crew returns as their closest challenger, the Reds have improved too.

If Dusty sprinkles his first-season magic dust (remember 2003, Cubs fans?), and more to the point, if they acquire Joe Blanton from the A's, this could be a sleeper club for 2008.

The Cardinals just seem to be too old, too injured (will Pujols last the season?), and too lifeless to compete. 

But, you can never completely count out a Tony LaRussa ballclub, especially if former ace Carpenter returns to health.

The Pirates and Astros should battle for the basement.

Overall, despite some flaws, the Cubs should be just good enough to capture the weakest division in baseball.

No promises after that.