NFL: 10 Teams Most Likely to Have New Head Coaches in 2013

NFL franchises change coaches the way some people change brands of toothpaste. When something new comes out, they have to try it for no other reason than the fact that it is new or that it is better than what they already have.

Among the ways that the NFL landscape is changing, the single worst example is the short sightedness of a shockingly high number of billionaires, also known as NFL owners. You would expect that these businessmen, especially given their resume, would understand a thing or two about continuity in a sport that requires it more than any other.

But many of them don’t.

The “what have you done for me lately?” mentality generally yields little or no gain. Patience often works better, but there is a limit to how long a franchise can flounder around.

Yes, the NFL is certainly a business, as we’re so often reminded.

Three names that do not appear on this list are as follows:

Jason Garrett: Jerry Jones is emotionally attached here; Garrett is safe until at least 2014 or longer.

Mike Shanahan: Dan Snyder can't go to the coaching well again, can he? Well, he can, but he won't.

Dennis Allen: Only Oakland fires coaches after one or two seasons. Oops.

So here’s a look ahead to the 2013 NFL season, still over a year and a half away, and the franchises most likely to fire or lose their current head coaches. 

10. New York Giants

I make this selection not based on the recent performance of head coach Tom Coughlin, who has obviously done enough to keep this job in New York for as long as he wants it.

But that’s the million dollar question: How long does he want it?

I can’t think of a Super Bowl-winning head coach that has his job security questioned so often in the mainstream media as Coughlin. Just over a year following New York’s massive upset over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, it was speculated that the Giants had just had enough of Coughlin.

Realize that New York had just finished 12-4 en route to the top seed in the NFC playoffs. It was also the first time the Giants had reached the playoffs the year following a Super Bowl win. But becoming the second straight top seed to lose their first playoff game in the NFC bracket to division rival Philadelphia didn’t go over very well.

Over the next two seasons, the Giants finished no better than 10-6 and failed to make the playoffs both years.

And then came 2011, and I assume that you can recall Super Bowl XLVI just a few of weeks ago.

The Giants franchise is a model of patience and, overall, good football. Coughlin fits the franchise like a glove in that he is consistently a winner as an NFL head coach. The same was true when he coached the Jacksonville Jaguars from the birth of the franchise in 1995, as he led an expansion team to the AFC Championship Game in just its second year.

With the occasional rumor that former Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Bill Cowher would like to return to the sidelines in New York City at some point in the near future, Coughlin really gives the Giants no reason to make a change.

But Coughlin himself could decide that he has had enough of the ride and could simply retire. Coughlin turns 66 years old just prior to next season, and after eight years coaching in the biggest media market in the United States, he might be reaching his limit.

All indications are that Coughlin coaches in 2012, but to assume that he’s back in 2013 would be a stretch.

9. Houston Texans

Having been born as the last expansion team to break into the NFL in 2002, it would take 10 years for the Houston Texans to both make the playoffs and win a game in the postseason.

Conventional thinking would suggest that six-year head coach Gary Kubiak might be greeted as a savior in south Texas, and in the short term, this is true. But for how long will this entitlement last? After all, it was just one playoff game.

The real deal is this: 47-49.

This is Houston’s record under Kubiak who, by all accounts, has assembled a pretty good football team in the Lone Star State. It could be argued that without the cascade of injuries this season, which included basically every quarterback that lined up under center, that the Texans could have reached the Super Bowl.

Something more has to be done in Houston, and it has to happen quickly—as in 2012—or I fully expect Kubiak to be on the way out. Right or wrong, and it’s probably wrong, this is likely how it will go.

I do not think this is a likely scenario, but with Peyton Manning apparently heading out of Indianapolis, the heat will certainly rise. The Colts offensive machine led by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time has finally been grounded for good. The Texans will be expected to seize the AFC South in a big, big way.

This is not to say that Houston has to win Super Bowl XLVII on Feb. 3, 2013 in New Orleans, La. But anything less than an appearance in the AFC Championship Game probably will not keep Kubiak employed as the Texans head coach.
 

 

8. Philadelphia Eagles

Like his NFC East counterpart mentioned previously, head coach Andy Reid really has nothing to be ashamed of following 13 years as head coach in the City of Brotherly Love, or lack thereof.

After taking over a 3-13 team in 1999, Reid has given the Eagles plenty of bang for their buck. No, Philadelphia has not won a Super Bowl, but they have done just about anything and everything shy of that goal.

Reid became only the 37th head coach in NFL history to reach the 100-win plateau and also became the 22nd coach to do so with only one franchise. Reid is just the 17th man to perform so well in the win column during his first head coaching gig. After 13 seasons leading the way in Philly, the sum of Reid’s work is a trip to Super Bowl XXXIX, six NFC East divisional championships and five NFC Championship Game appearances.

That’s called getting it done in any era, but especially in the modern NFL.

Despite all of this success, there is the emptiness still lingering due to no Super Bowl wins. You kind of get the feeling that time might be running out.

The Eagles spent mad cash following the NFL lockout of 2011 in an apparent attempt to get back to the Super Bowl quickly. Philadelphia was billed as the “Dream Team” entering the 2011 regular season. The free-agent signings of players such as Nnamdi Asomugha, Jason Babin, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith, Vince Young and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie yielded a record of just 8-8 and no post-season.

Two elements now exist which could make 2012 the final season for Reid.

First off, owner Jeffrey Lurie has been known as a rather conservative owner when it comes to spending money on free-agent talent. After opening up his checkbook like he did prior to last season, another trip to the Super Bowl will be expected in 2012. In other words, Reid is on the clock now like never before.

Second, one has to wonder exactly how long Reid actually wants to stay in Philadelphia. If you compare his tenure to that of former Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher and former Pittsburgh front man Bill Cowher, one could conclude that Reid’s own personal clock might be ticking. 

I would suggest that no matter how the Eagles fare next season, it could very well be time for Reid to take a break from coaching to focus on his family and recharge for another run, if he chooses, in 2014 or after.

Turning 54 this month, Reid has plenty of time to weigh his options.

7. Buffalo Bills

To judge Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey after his two seasons there would be completely inappropriate.

Consider the somewhat recent draft history of this franchise in the years well before Gailey’s arrival. The following are the Bills' first-overall selections beginning in 2004:

2004: Wide receiver Lee Evans: Plays in Baltimore for the first time in 2011.

2005: Wide receiver Roscoe Parrish: A second-round pick, Parrish stands 5’9” and scares nobody.

2006: Safety Donte Whitner: Played in the NFC Championship Game with San Francisco in 2011.

2007: Running back Marshawn Lynch: Traded to Seattle in 2010, shakes city in playoff win over Saints that year.

2008: Cornerback Leodis McKelvin: Five career picks in four seasons and not a difference maker.

2009: Linebacker Aaron Maybin: Classic first-round bust that notched first six sacks in 2011, with the Jets.

2010: Running back C. J. Spiller- Not a franchise running back, could have had Jason Peirre-Paul.

2011: Nose guard Marcell Dareus: Huge interior lineman who notched 5.5 sacks as a rookie.

Simply put, Buffalo can’t draft for squat. I do think that this franchise might be turning the corner beginning about a year ago, but there’s a good ways to go.

The Bills are 10-22 under Gailey, and with so many early first-round busts, it would only be fair to give him and general manager Buddy Nix at least two more years to get this mess fixed. But another single-digit winning season followed by yet another top-10 draft pick might just be the end of it even before it really gets started.

Getting a new deal hammered out with wide receiver Steve Johnson and getting rid of broken down Shawne Merriman just might give this regime some hope.

Gailey is a solid coach with plenty of experience, but he’s going to have to get the momentum building quickly in 2012.

6. Arizona Cardinals

Hired in 2007 to bring some sense of pride to a franchise definitely lacking that very ingredient, Ken Whisenhunt achieved what no other coach for this floundering franchise had ever done. Following a honeymoon record of 8-8 following his first season at the helm, Whisenhunt’s 9-7 Arizona Cardinals reached their first Super Bowl following the 2008 regular season and came very close to winning it.

Despite improving to 10-6 in 2009 en route to a second straight NFC West division championship, the Cardinals fell short in the playoffs against the eventual Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints and the red birds have been irrelevant since.

It’s hard to pin the last two seasons only on Whisenhunt. When you lose a starting quarterback like Kurt Warner you’re likely to encounter significant difficulty in meeting expectations, especially following such a narrow Super Bowl loss so recently. Factor in the 2010 jettison of ultimate draft bust Matt Leinart, and Whisenhunt found himself exactly where the Cardinals have spent so much time over their existence: without a franchise quarterback.

When you don’t draft well, you end up paying more in free agency or via trade. The hurried yet anticipated acquisition of Kevin Kolb from Philadelphia prior to the 2011 regular season didn’t exactly pay dividends out in the desert. Various injuries throughout the season didn’t lend Kolb much opportunity to make a big stamp with Arizona just yet.

I think Arizona rebounds and steals the NFC West in 2012 from San Francisco, host of the NFC championship game last season. The 49ers are likely to get stung one more time by the presence of Alex Smith at quarterback, and the Cards should be in better shape than that.

If not, then one has to wonder how long owner Bill Bidwill will wait for another strong showing in the NFC playoffs.

Bringing in another starting quarterback so late in Whisenhunt’s tenure would seem to bode well for the five-year head coach. But if last season’s .500 mark for Arizona does not improve significantly, then another rock-solid head coach could be seeking employment elsewhere in 2013.

5. Atlanta Falcons

In 2008, the Atlanta Falcons were born again. Having been through a tumultuous 2007 season that saw both the arrest of quarterback Michael Vick and the surprising resignation of Bobby Petrino after just a season on the job, the Falcons really needed a face lift.

Rebuilding is always a function of timing, and nobody really has control of that. With the arrival of a third head coach in as many seasons and the third pick in the 2008 NFL draft, owner Arthur Blank knew that Vick was essentially a goner, at least for the foreseeable future.

So new head coach Mike Smith arrives from the defensive coordinator post in Jacksonville and immediately takes quarterback Matt Ryan as Vick's obvious replacement.

Yes, Ryan's first NFL pass against Detroit went for touchdown to Michael Jenkins; great play. You would expect nothing less from a rookie that was chosen third overall as the first quarterback off the board and would receive almost $35 million in guaranteed money because of it.

But this also set the bar fairly high with respect to the development of Ryan and the roster as a whole. This team is going in the right direction, but it's just not there yet.

The issue with Atlanta right now is patience. The honeymoon period for Smith is long gone, and the goal now has to be results. I'm not saying that this is right, but it is what it is. Smith might only have a couple more years to get Atlanta to the Super Bowl before Blank decides to change his mind.

Consider that under Smith, the Falcons have set two different franchise records. They have claimed four consecutive winning seasons for the first time ever and also have back-to-back playoff appearances as a franchise-first.

But despite these goodies, the reality is that Smith has not won a playoff game. This especially hurts following a 2010 campaign that earned the Falcons home field advantage for the NFC playoffs.

The only season in which Atlanta has failed to make the playoffs under Smith was in 2009 following late-season injuries to both Ryan and starting running back Michael Turner.

These things happen.

Smith should be Falcons head coach for a long time, but a hiccup in 2012 could mean a surprising reaction from another billionaire.

4. New York Jets

You certainly would not expect that a head coach just two years removed from two straight appearances in the AFC championship game would be shown the door so soon, would you?

Yet, if New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan fails to reach it again in 2012, then this scenario could take place. I don't expect to see this go down so soon, but nothing surprises me anymore.

Ryan came to the Jets in 2009 barking and hollering at division rivals the same way his father, Buddy Ryan, used to do. Hey, when you can back up the talk, then you can say whatever you want and people will probably pay you to do it. The Ryan family tree of coaching illustrates just one question, however.

How long will they really pay you?

Ryan is learning right now what his father learned years and years ago as a first-time head coach with the Philadelphia Eagles. Buddy built the defense to win multiple championships, but never came close to bringing the offense.

Ryan made a big splash with those two AFC championship appearances at the dawn of his coaching career. But 2011 left a stench around this franchise that just tells you something is not right. Between the less-than-stellar performance of Mark Sanchez as a third year starting quarterback and whatever drama is surrounding wide receiver Santonio Holmes, the Jets don't appear to be a team on the rise.

Ryan can only take his direct and blunt personality so far, especially in New York. I expect Ryan to be in New York for at least four more seasons. But if the Jets come out flat and uninspired next season, then I would duck if I was Ryan.

3. Chicago Bears

Let me simply say this much: Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith has some real staying power.

I left the radio business in 2004 just two days before the NFL regular season would begin. This seems like ages ago, to me anyway, and Smith was about to embark on his first year as head coach of the Bears.

By 2007, the Bears had two straight division championships and a trip to Super Bowl XLI, a loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Yet despite the success, Smith was just reaching the most complicated part of the quarterback carousel between Brian Griese, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton.

Trying to win as owner of a steakhouse while serving only ground chuck might not work out too well, so ownership gave Smith a steak in former Denver quarterback Jay Cutler in the offseason of 2009.

This acquisition landed the Bears in the NFC championship game the following year, as this leap also included the free-agent signing of pass rusher Julius Peppers. 

Yes, Chicago has spent some money recently, and it's hard to say from here what the next few seasons will bring. 

Smith has been able to survive with some degrees of success, but also with some very good politics. General Manager Jerry Angelo apparently has a high level of trust in Smith, and based on the team's early success under him, that seems justified.

But the Bears have also had a few messes, and one has to really be concerned by the fact that merely bringing in more talent has not yet yielded much in terms of consistent contention. Chicago tends to be a "year on" and "year off" performer recently, and at some point, this franchise has to choose a path.

My gut tells me that if Chicago fails to advance deep into the playoffs in 2012, then there will be changes the year after. I am not so sure Chicago is on the fast track to this end given the recent acquisitions of former Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Roy Williams and running back Marion Barber, two players in rapid decline.

Or, Chicago could finish 6-10 and Smith could sign a four-year contract extension. Who knows?

2. Cincinnati Bengals

Marvin Lewis arrived in Cincinnati in 2003 about the same way all other Bengals head coaches had since the Sam Wyche era. One has to ask themselves where to even start.

Following two years of building, the Lewis hire began to pay off. An NFC North title in 2005 jacked up expectations for a fanbase long void of even competitive football in these parts of Ohio.

And then, crazy time started.

It was one thing when several Dallas Cowboys players, among them Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Michael Irvin, got a little reckless with the night life and were arrested back in the mid 1990's. Those guys won three championships in four years.

The Bengals won a weak division and then lost a Wild Card playoff game to eventual world champion Pittsburgh.

The arrests that ensued during the two years that followed that first playoff loss were staggering. Wide receiver Chris Henry was arrested at least five times prior to his unexpected death in December 2009, but not before turning commissioner Roger Goodell into a czar.

And I'm still talking about 2006 and 2007. Within the last year, wide receiver Jerome Simpson, cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones—yes, again—and running back Cedric Benson have all been involved with the system for things that just don't need to happen.

Despite not having won a playoff game in three tries over nine seasons so far, owner Mike Brown apparently seems pretty comfortable with where Cincinnati is heading as a franchise. It was interesting to see franchise quarterback Carson Palmer traded to Oakland, as shortly after, TCU rookie quarterback Andy Dalton was drafted and handed the reigns a little earlier than expected.

Last season marked Lewis' third trip to the postseason as head coach of the Bengals.

Given that Cincinnati teams under Lewis have been anything but focused or consistent, a slump in 2012 seems likely, especially given that Dalton is still going to be a young and developing quarterback.

I wouldn't bet money that Lewis survives another mediocre season wearing tiger stripes.

1. San Diego Chargers

You normally don't see a head coach lose his job after posting a 14-2 regular season. But this is what happened to Marty Shottenheimer following the 2006 NFL season.

If Chargers general manager A.J. Smith was hoping to get better postseason results following Shottenheimer, I guess the reviews are mixed.

Shottenheimer lost his job mainly because he and A.J. Smith did not get along, the latter arriving with San Diego after the former was hired. Still, it was hard to ignore Shottenheimer's dismal playoff record of 5-11 at the time he was hired. Losing his job after five seasons and adding two more playoff losses to his resume, the Chargers went in a surprising direction for a new head coach.

Norv Turner arrived in 2007 for year two of the Phillip Rivers era and was supposed to take a team still loaded with talent deeper into the playoffs than previously seen. But here came Turner with nine seasons as a head coach under his belt and all of one trip to the playoffs to show for it. Turner won a game and lost a game in the 1998 postseason, and that's it.

So you replace a guy who can't win playoff games with a guy who generally can't even get there?

Well, so far so good for Turner, but I'm not so sure it's good enough. Recent history shows that the bar can be set pretty high in San Diego, and yet, you could still end up disappearing.

In his five seasons on the job, the Chargers have won three AFC West championships and have finished no worse than second in the division. San Diego has not finished a season below .500 under Turner.    
 
But much has changed for this team since Turner arrived five years ago. Players like LaDainian Tomlinson, Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie are long gone, and that's without even mentioning the name Drew Brees. The entire corps of this team is new, and the window for true contention has just passed.

In other words, it's no longer a question of whether or not Rivers can do what Brees could not.

In fact, that was never a very good question to begin with. 

Turner may yet to have reached the same level of success as a head coach that he did as offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys during their championship runs almost 20 years ago. But there is nothing saying that he cannot still do this. Despite his qualifications and tenure, I feel the clock is ticking on Turner.

Without jumping right back on top of a bad division won in 2011 by a quarterback as awful as Tim Tebow of Denver, there is no way Turner survives.