Fantasy Baseball 2012: The Top-Rated Prospects You'll Want to Avoid

Fantasy baseball players know their prospects. 

Check that, fantasy baseball players who like to win know their prospects.

The sheer depth of the player pool is part of what makes fantasy baseball so much fun (and so much better than other fantasy sports), but there's more to mastering it than simply knowing which back-end starting pitchers and which fourth outfielders are primed to break out. Owners who know which prospects to target tend to do well.

It helps to also know which prospects not to target. Some prospects represent fantasy gold, and others represent fantasy fool's gold.

For the 2012 season, there are five guys in particular who look like fool's gold.

5. Alex White, SP (Colorado Rockies)

Alex White was a key part of the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians, and the Rockies are counting on him to be a productive member of their rotation down the line.

But right now, White is in no man's land. He logged some starts with the Rockies after coming over from Cleveland's system last season, but he was pretty awful. With the Rockies, White allowed 34 earned runs in 36.1 innings pitched, and hitters hit .324 against him.

My guess is White will be forced to make some starts this season, but he's not worth drafting and stashing. His showing with the Rockies last season hardly inspires confidence, and you have to keep in mind the fact that throwing for the Rockies is akin to a death sentence for starting pitchers.

Somebody will recognize White's name and draft him with high hopes. Don't be that guy.

4. Manny Banuelos, SP (New York Yankees)

Yankees prospects are all overrated.

Manny Banuelos is a Yankees prospect.

Therefore, Manny Banuelos is overrated.

Well, kinda. We don't know because we haven't seen Banuelos log any big-league innings yet. The Yanks could have called him up last season, but they chose to keep him down on the farm.

The Yankees aren't going to be able to keep Banuelos down on the farm for much longer, but one more season in the minors seems to be in the cards. The Yanks have more starting pitchers than they have rotation spots, and the truth is that Banuelos still has work to do.

For all his talent, Banuelos was mediocre in 2011 between Double- and Triple-A. He did a good job racking up strikeouts, but he needs to do better than a 1.55 WHIP.

Let the Yankees homer in your league draft him.

3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (Chicago Cubs)

Anthony Rizzo absolutely killed it at the Triple-A level last season, batting .331 with a 1.056 OPS with the San Diego Padres' Triple-A affiliate.

Rizzo was traded to the Cubs over the offseason, and there are quite a few fans who would love to see him break camp with the big club. These fans should not get their hopes up.

Not too long ago, Cubs manager Dale Sveum told the Chicago Sun-Times that it's a "concrete plan" for Rizzo to spend another season in the minors.

The Cubs are going to use Bryan LaHair at first instead. If you're looking to grab a power-hitting first baseman later in the draft, I recommend trying him instead.

2. Jacob Turner, SP (Detroit Tigers)

Jacob Turner has a chance to break camp as a member of the Detroit Tigers' starting rotation. In fact, John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press recently wrote that Turner is a "clear favorite" to win a rotation spot this spring.

The Tigers got a glimpse of Turner last season, and he was...not good. He allowed 12 earned runs in 12.2 innings pitched, posting an ERA of 8.53 and a WHIP of 1.66.

Turner's minor league numbers look much better, and Turner does have the talent that the Tigers should be excited about. But the degree to which he was battered around in three starts last season—all against bad or mediocre offensive clubs—makes him a total wild card for fantasy owners.

In my estimation, you have to go for pitching prospects who have shown promise at the top level. Turner hasn't done that yet. Leave him for somebody else.

1. Bryce Harper, OF (Washington Nationals)

As a prospect, I love Bryce Harper. He's got power for days, and he certainly has the swagger of a major league player.

The word from MLB.com is that Harper is going to get a chance to make the 25-man roster. If he impresses manager Davey Johnson that much, I assume Johnson would have no choice but to start him.

So, why should you be dead-set on passing on Harper?

Because he's going to be overdrafted more than any prospect in baseball this season. If he earns a starting spot, owners will be all over him. If he doesn't earn a roster spot, owners will be all over him.

The boom potential is there, but so is the bust potential. We're talking about a 19-year-old kid with one minor league season under his belt. The hype is a bit much.

If you want a top prospect, try Mike Trout instead.