Robert Griffin III: Comparing Baylor QB Against Past No. 2 NFL Draft Picks

After a very successful NFL Combine, Robert Griffin III will now move on to the Baylor Pro Day to showcase his throwing skills and hope to further impress teams vying for his services. Barring any kind of freak injury, he is universally expected to go second overall in this year’s draft and on to a successful career in the NFL.

Although free from a lot of the pressure that has been heaped on Andrew Luck, RG3 is also likely to be tasked with rescuing an ailing franchise. Rumors have been circulating that the St. Louis Rams are definitely trading the second overall pick in order to service their numerous positional needs, and Washington, Miami and Cleveland are all being touted as possible homes for the Heisman winner. None of these locations are going to provide an easy path to stardom, and his ability to lead each offense has been widely discussed and scrutinized.

But what has he got to live up to within the context of his draft spot?

This article will look at the fortunes of the second overall pick over the last five years and then travel further back in time to assess how the last five quarterbacks fared after being drafted at No. 2.

As expected, there are some successes that Griffin would like to emulate—and pitfalls he would do well to avoid.

Von Miller (LB, Class of 2011, Denver Broncos)

Coming off a senior year where he missed the first six games and still won the Butkus Award, Miller entered the draft and emerged as the new No. 58 for the Broncos. John Elway was heard to mention that players like Miller only come around once every 10 years, and Miller has done a lot to uphold that opinion.

The rookie from Texas A&M notched 64 tackles in 2011, as well as 11.5 sacks, four defended passes and two forced fumbles—one of which came from his first career play from scrimmage.  Miller was eventually named as the 2011 Defensive Rookie of the Year and earned a Pro Bowl place with two other Broncos defensive players.

Having clocked up around $47,500 in fines during his first year—including for initiating the sideline brawl in the playoff game loss to the Patriots—there are a few questions that remain regarding his temperament, but his achievements over the last year cannot be ignored.

After being named to the Pro Bowl, he stated that he wasn’t anywhere near the player that he thought he was capable of being. That is a scary thought for the opposition.

Ndamukong Suh (DT, Class of 2010, Detroit Lions)

Ndamukong Suh ended his senior year with fourth place in the Heisman ballot, receiving 815 points—the highest fourth place total in Heisman history. He was considered to be a fearsome prospect for the NFL, with the ability to play in a 4-3 scheme as a defensive tackle or as a defensive end in a 3-4 system.

After signing with the Detroit Lions, Suh had a blinding 2010 season—he topped the list of defensive tackles with 10 sacks, became the first Lion since Barry Sanders to be named as a starter in the Pro Bowl and was crowned Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Ndamukong Suh seemingly set a precedent for Von Miller— he has already had to pay over $40,000 in fines in his NFL career, and his nine personal fouls in two years are the most of any player over that period. In a Sporting News poll of his peers, Suh was voted the dirtiest player in the NFL. This title proved to be well-earned during the Thanksgiving game against the Packers, when Suh jammed Evan Dietrich-Smith’s head into the ground three times before getting up and stamping on the outstretched arm of the Green Bay center.

Suh was suspended for two games without pay and appealed the decision, which was denied. He apologized for his actions and vowed that these mistakes wouldn’t happen again—instead he made new ones when he drove his car into a tree in Portland whilst serving his suspension.

There is no denying that Suh has the ability to dominate the NFL, but he has to show that he can cut out the controversy before he is considered great.

Jason Smith (T, Class of 2009, St. Louis Rams)

A fellow Baylor Bear, Jason Smith preceded RG3’s achievement by being the first Baylor player to be selected second overall in the draft—and the first to go in the first round since Daryl Gardener in 1996.

However, this is presumably where Griffin would like the similarities to end.

Smith has struggled with injury throughout his NFL life, starting just 26 of a possible 48 games in his first three years. He was also ousted at left tackle by 2010 draft addition Roger Saffold and moved to right tackle. Adding this to the fact that no one on the Rams roster had a bigger base salary than Smith in 2011 meant that there were rumors he was set to be cut loose this year.

However, it has emerged that Smith is likely to return, and with a new offensive line coach, 2012 could be the year that he starts to develop into the elite prospect that was promised.

If he can stay healthy, that is.

Chris Long (DE, Class of 2008, St. Louis Rams)

Chris Long has had an NFL career that has always traveled in the right direction. Consistently improving, he had a career year with the Rams in 2011, despite the team itself struggling along with an ever-extending IR list. The Rams will pick at No. 2 again in the 2012 draft, but none of it is due to Long.

It must be difficult to be the son of a Hall of Famer, but Long hasn’t shown any trace of a burden, posting career-high numbers despite operating with an ankle injury for a lot of the 2011 season, as well as a thumb injury in the final weeks that required surgery.

In 2011, for the second season in a row, Long led the NFL in quarterback disruptions. He finished seventh in sacks with 13 and was named as an alternate for the Pro Bowl.

Some argued that he should have received more recognition.

Calvin Johnson (WR, Class of 2007, Detroit Lions)

The man they call “Megatron” made history in 2008, leading the league in receiving touchdowns (tied with Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald) while simultaneously being part of a team that posted the first ever 0-16 season. He was named as an alternate for the Pro Bowl that year—if nothing else, Lions fans could take heart from his performances and look for more in the future.

In 2011, they got what they were looking for.

Finally free of the injuries that had previously halted his progress, Matthew Stafford teamed up with Johnson to supply him with 16 receiving touchdowns, averaging six receptions per game over the course of the season as the Lions went to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

As a receiver, Johnson has it all: height, good hands, speed, strength and agility—as well as excellent awareness and timing when making his runs.

As a quarterback, Griffin has many of the same attributes, which is what makes him such a good prospect.

Donovan McNabb (QB, Class of 1999, Philadelphia Eagles)

On to the quarterbacks now, with Donovan McNabb the most recent QB to be drafted with the second overall pick.

McNabb went to Syracuse because he wanted to prove that he could be a pocket passer—his records in yardage per game, passing efficiency and yards per attempt still stand today.

His NFL breakout season in 2000 saw him throw for 3,365 yards and 21 touchdowns, as well as rushing for six.

McNabb went to the Pro Bowl that year—the first of six visits—and the following year he led his Eagles to the first of four consecutive NFC East championships. The Super Bowl victory remained out of reach, with rumors circulating that he was ill and threw up during the Eagles’ Super Bowl XXXIX loss to the Patriots, repeatedly refuted by the Eagles staff and players.

RG3 has drawn comparisons to both McNabb and his successor Michael Vick, with an enviable combination of pass accuracy and the ability to make a play on his feet. If he can emulate the consistency that McNabb showed in his four-season purple patch with the Eagles, whilst keeping from the off-the-field antics that landed Vick a 21-month prison sentence, then he could outdo all expectations.

Ryan Leaf (QB, Class of 1998, San Diego Chargers)

Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf?

This was the question on everyone’s lips going into the 1998 draft, with seemingly no way to separate the skills of the top two college prospects. One was bred to be a quarterback and studied hard, while the other had raw talent to burn.

And burn it he did.

Leaf was a first-team All-American—ahead of Manning—and a Heisman trophy finalist in 1997, with both Manning and Leaf eventually losing out to current Packers cornerback Charles Woodson. He left Washington State after his junior year and entered the draft. The Chargers saw him throw and decided that he was the man they had been looking for—in order to move up one place they traded their first and second-round picks of that year, as well as their first-round pick the following year to the Arizona Cardinals. In addition to this they threw in wide receiver Eric Metcalf and linebacker Patrick Sapp.

The story of Ryan Leaf is a well-known tale. Immature and seemingly unwilling to learn, he rode off his natural ability in college and was shocked to find that the NFL is a very unforgiving place as he racked up defeat after defeat. The pressure can’t have helped, but his tantrums in full view of the media, refusal to complete workouts or have surgery, along with a general lack of respect for his peers caused him more trouble in the end.

A true NFL cautionary tale, Leaf is an example that every rookie quarterback should study—then do the exact opposite.

Rick Mirer (QB, Class of 1993, Seattle Seahawks)

In a battle that would be re-lived with Manning vs. Leaf, it was Bledsoe vs. Mirer leading up to the ’93 draft. Bledsoe won the draft battle—and the career battle, too.

In their rookie seasons there wasn’t a huge amount between them—Bledsoe threw for 2,494 yards, 15 touchdowns and 15 interceptions before finishing the season with a starting record of 5-7, while Mirer put up 2,833 yards, 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, ending at 6-10 as a starter.

At this point, their careers took different paths.

The 1994 season was the only one where Mirer would throw more touchdowns than interceptions, and he was traded to the Bears and the Jets before being thrown around the Bay Area with the 49ers and the Raiders.

His lowest points came in the ’99 season with the Jets, including the opening game against New England, when quarterback Vinny Testaverde was injured. Due to the vagaries of the NFL rules of the time, punter Tom Tupa was forced to play quarterback until Mirer became eligible in the fourth quarter. Tupa acquitted himself well and threw two touchdown passes to give Gang Green some hope when Mirer took to the field.

Mirer promptly threw two interceptions, and the game was gone.

The No. 2 quarterback in the NFL draft was a bust. Leaf would re-enforce this a few years later. Griffin needs to make sure the same fate doesn’t befall him, wherever he goes.

Bert Jones (QB, Class of 1973, Baltimore Colts)

Being drafted as the heir to the throne of Johnny Unitas is going to weigh heavy—but that’s exactly what happened to Bertram Jones when he was drafted to the Baltimore Colts in 1973. Unitas was traded to the Chargers the same year.

During his run as the starting QB, Jones and his Colts won three AFC East titles in eight years, with Jones’ best year being 1976, when he threw career-high numbers of 3,104 yards and 24 touchdowns. He was named as the NFL MVP and made what would prove to be his only Pro Bowl appearance.

Known as “The Ruston Rifle”, Jones was reportedly able to propel the ball 100 yards and called all his own plays on the field. Before Super Bowl XLII, Bill Belichick was asked his opinion on the best quarterbacks of all time, and he responded by saying that Bert Jones was the best pure passer he ever saw.

Out of Unitas’ shadow he could have been more widely known. But he wasn’t dwarfed by it either, which is high praise indeed.

Archie Manning (QB, Class of 1971, New Orleans Saints)

When looking at Manning’s career statistics, a person could be forgiven for assuming that he was an average quarterback who happened to produce Super Bowl-winning sons. His record as a starter—35-101-3—is the worst of any quarterback who has played 100 or more games, and his 125 touchdowns are offset by 173 interceptions.

But to solely look at the statistics is to do the man a great disservice, as Manning’s tale is one that illustrates just how much quarterbacks rely on their teammates.

Manning was an exceptional QB but had the misfortune to play for the Saints when they were an awful team (his sons Cooper and Peyton famously joined the new tradition of Saints fans wearing bags over their heads during games), with Manning afforded no protection and regularly sacked.

His best seasons came in 1978 and ’79, when Dick Nolan brought in some offensive recruits for Archie to link up with, and the Saints finished 7-9 and 8-8. Manning was elected to the Pro Bowl, and in the ’78 season he was also named NFC MVP.

The nature of the draft often means that the top picks go to the worst-performing teams. When Eli Manning was due to go the San Diego Chargers in 2004, it was rumored that Archie stepped in and forced their hand until Eli was traded to the Giants, in an effort to spare his son the same type of luckless career he had been forced to endure.

As mentioned earlier, Griffin is likely to be drafted to aid a struggling franchise, and he has all the attributes needed to forge a successful career in the NFL. But, as evidenced by the career of Archie Manning, he’ll need a lot of support—and luck—in order to make the best of his abilities.