Projecting Albert Pujols' Offensive Numbers for the Los Angeles Angels in 2012

With Albert Pujols and the rest of his teammates all present and accounted for in Tempe, Ariz., the Angels will now have the next five weeks to tinker with their revamped roster in an effort to build a championship-caliber lineup around their prized offseason acquisition.

That’s five weeks to figure out who is going to hit in front of him, who is going to protect him, and who is going to benefit from him.

But do they know what they are getting from him?

With the exception of last year, Pujols was remarkably consistent during his 11 years in St. Louis. But
he’s starting an entirely new chapter in Anaheim.

He’s 32 years old and playing with a new set of teammates, not to mention facing a new army of pitchers, so regardless what he’d like you to believe, there’s a certain element of the unknown at play here.

Healthy again and with his contract situation resolved, Pujols has a different set of circumstances to overcome, such as the pressure to live up to his monster contract. Not that he has ever been affected by pressure, mind you.  Still, there are many new variables to contend with.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at 10 offensive categories and try to project what kind of numbers Pujols might put up this season.

1.  Games Played

2011: 147

Career average: 155

2012 Projection: 156

Comments: The Angels have a few brutal stretches they have to go through this season, including one in May in which they are scheduled to play 20 consecutive games. Manager Mike Scioscia likes to keep his players fresh. Only Torii Hunter (156) played 150-plus games last
year. In keeping with the Angels’ team-first concept, Scioscia will give Pujols his days off just like everyone else, despite his desire to play every day.  If he’s healthy for the entire season, as Hunter was last year, expect Pujols to be on a similar schedule.

2.  Batting Average

2011: .299

Career average: .328

2012 Projection: .312

Comments:  After hitting .357 in 2008, Pujols’ batting average declined in each of the next three years, culminating in last year’s only sub-.300 performance.  After struggling early in the season, perhaps from his wrist injury, his uncertain contract situation, or both, he rebounded to hit .319 in the second half.

But that doesn’t necessarily explain his overall downward trend. My prediction is that Pujols will finish comfortably over .300 but nowhere near the kind of batting average he put up during his best years in St. Louis.

3.  On-Base Percentage

2011: .366

Career average: .420

2012 Projection:.401

Comments: Showing a similar downward trend as with his batting average, Pujols went from a career-high .462 in 2008 to .366 last season, with stops along the way at .443 (2009) and .414 (2010).  Maybe he was trying to do too much, or maybe it’s a sign of things to come.  As with most of these categories, much will depend on how American League pitchers choose to pitch to him and how his teammates perform in front of and behind him.  Albert will be over .400 again this season, but just barely. 

4.  Doubles

2011: 29

Career average: 43

2012 Projection: 40

Comments: The Angels had five players with 30-plus doubles last season, so that certainly bodes well for Albert’s chances to bounce back from a disappointing 29 in this category last season.  If the Angels in front of him can get on base and he has adequate protection behind him, he’ll likely see more pitches he can drive and that certainly will translate to more extra-base hits.  I expect Pujols to once again put up 40 in this category.

5.  Home Runs

2011: 37

Career average: 42

2012 Projection: 34

Comments: While I project his doubles will be up this season, I expect Pujols’ home runs to be down somewhat, which I chalk up to his unfamiliarity to his new surroundings and the fact that age 32 is around the time those power numbers start to decline.

He’ll still be a machine at the plate, just a slightly older model.  And if the rest of the offense performs up to its potential, 34 home runs will be plenty to get the job done.  

6.  RBIs

2011: 99

Career average: 126

2012 Projection: 120  

Comments: The Angels had only two players drive in more than 66 runs last year, and Mark Trumbo’s 87 led the team.  They hit .255 with runners in scoring position, which was only slightly up from their overall .253 batting average.  Pujols smells RBIs like a shark smells blood in the water.  He will single-handedly improve the team in this category.  I expect a big number from him in 2012.    

7.  Runs

2011: 105

Career average: 123

2012 Projection: 98

Comments: If my previous projections hold form, Pujols won’t be getting on base as often and won’t be hitting as many home runs, so his runs should be down.  But the main reason I expect a lower number from Pujols in this area is the uncertainty over whoever is hitting behind him.

Hunter turns 37 this year and we’ve already seen a decline in his numbers, and nobody knows what to expect from Kendrys Morales after nearly two years away from the game.  You can expect opponents to make those guys try to beat them.  Time will tell how well they do.    

8.  Slugging Percentage

2011: .541

Career average: .617

2012 Projection: .594

Comments:  In keeping with the overall theme, Pujols should bounce back from a career low but not quite reach his normal stats in this category.  I see a statistical season similar to 2002, his second in the big leagues.  If he puts up those kinds of numbers, it’ll be nothing to sneeze at and the Angels would no doubt be pleased. 

9.  Base on Balls

2011: 61

Career average: 93

2012 Projection: 101

Comments: Pujols averaged 101 BBs from 2005 through 2010 before plummeting to 61 last season.  I see pitchers being real careful around him early in the season and he’s a notoriously selective hitter. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see him rack up plenty of walks.

How much he keeps up that pace will depend on whether the guys behind him are making the other teams pay for using that strategy. If he doesn’t start feeling he has to swing at more pitches because the team is struggling, he could reach 100 BBs again. 

10.  Strikeouts

2011: 58

Career average: 67

2012 Projection: 61

Comments: Albert has always put the ball in play and I expect 2012 to be no different.  This will help the Angels immensely. They had nine players strike out at least 65 times last year.  Hopefully Pujols will inspire his new teammates to make more contact. His presence in the lineup should allow them to be more selective at the plate.