San Antonio Spurs: 5 Reasons Condensed Schedule Catches Up to Spurs in 2nd Half

It certainly isn't time to sound any alarms on the River Walk, but San Antonio's tightly contested loss to the Chicago Bulls should have observers asking just how long the Spurs can keep up their exceptional play this season.

Chances are San Antonio will remain ranked near the top of the Western Conference and perhaps even contend for another championship. But, the road ahead may be bumpy. With the second half of San Antonio's season hinging so heavily on keeping everyone healthy, coach Gregg Popovich will need to make difficult choices.

Don't be at all surprised to see the forward-thinking coach continue to rest his stars and remain focused on the long view that is postseason success. No one should count out this team's ability to compete when it counts, but here are five reasons it might take a small step back as the lockout-compressed schedule grinds on. 

Pop Will Show Caution with Injuries

San Antonio's first-round exit in the 2011 NBA Playoffs was hastened by two injuries that couldn't have come at worse times.

In late March, Tim Duncan sprained his ankle and missed four games (all of which San Antonio lost). While Duncan played well in his first two games back, he struggled down the stretch and certainly wasn't 100 percent going into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Manu Ginobili fought through the Memphis series in even more pain. While Tony Allen believed Manu was making much ado about nothing, it was later determined that he was in fact playing with a fractured elbow he suffered in the final game of the regular season.

San Antonio doesn't want to find itself in a similar situation this time around. 

With a handful of minor injuries creating havoc for the Spurs' rotation, it wouldn't be surprising to see San Antonio cool down a bit over the stretch of the regular season. Popovich has indicated he will take a cautious approach with these bumps and bruises, and that should be good news to Spurs fans.

The regular season record may take a hit, but there's little doubt the short-term sacrifice will be well worth averting a repeat of the Memphis meltdown.

Tim Duncan Will Get His Rest & Relaxation

Tim Duncan has averaged 31 minutes over his last 10 games, but don't expect that to continue. Just as Popovich opted to rest both Duncan and Tony Parker against Portland with the All-Star break looming, the Big Fundamental may be used somewhat sparingly as the season winds down.

Even if the season weren't compressed into a litany of back-to-backs, Pop is likely to keep Duncan's playing time in check. He did it last season, too (especially as the postseason neared).

In December of 2010, Duncan averaged 29.9 minutes a game. His January minutes slipped to 27.4 a game, and that was well before he sprained his ankle in March.

With the shortened schedule, that pattern should reemerge. Now that Tiago Splitter has returned from his calf strain, Duncan will have more opportunities to sit. Even when Splitter was lost for the remainder of the Spurs lengthy road trip, Pop was determined to keep a close eye on Duncan's playing time.

Fewer minutes for Timmy likely means fewer wins for the Spurs.  

San Antonio's Tempo Requires Fresh Legs

With Tony Parker's emergence as San Antonio's featured scoring threat, the Spurs' need to push the tempo is all the more pressing.

When Parker's penetration isn't set up by the pick-and-roll, his best bet—like any other guard—is to get into the paint before the defense has had time to set up. The formula has produced countless layups, free throws and more than a few open three-pointers.

Last season, San Antonio's 15.1 fast-break points per game ranked eighth in the NBA. This season, however, the Spurs are only managing 11.5 fast-break points a game, ranking them only 21st in the league.

Can the drop-off be attributed exclusively to tired legs? Probably not. San Antonio also misses Manu Ginobili's ability to get in the passing lane, creates steals and push the ball down the court.

However, there's little question those tired legs have translated into reduced production to at least some degree. Though the Spurs' 99.3 points per contest still rank fourth in the league, that too is down from the 103 points they averaged last season.

Indeed, the compressed schedule has reduced scoring output across the board. In 2010-2011, 10 teams averaged over 100 points game, and only three teams do so this season. For a San Antonio squad that has become more dependent on easy offense than ever before, this trend could very well take a toll. 

A Tale of Two Halves

Fans of baseball will be familiar with a baffling trend among some pitchers: Their performances during the first half of the season may looked markedly different than their second halves. Some take a while to warm up while others emerge with hot starts only to cool off down the stretch.

Perhaps this is simply a byproduct of the physical toll athletes endure over the course of long seasons. Perhaps some players are frozen by the increased expectations strong play tends to generate.

If history is any hint, the Spurs may have themselves another guy who just can't close the deal.

Last season, Richard Jefferson started off like a brand new player. He averaged 14.7 points in October and 12 in November. The Spurs responded in kind, losing only four games going into December.

Then, Jefferson became little more than an afterthought. He averaged fewer than 10 points for the remainder of the season, including just 8.7 in February. Unfortunately for San Antonio, current indicators suggest more of the same. Jefferson's output this year went from 10.7 points per contest in January to just 7.3 in February. Despite improving his field goal percentage from one month to the next, his minutes also sank from 31.4 to 24.8.

It's difficult to ascertain an exact cause for the drop-off, but one thing is certain: The condensed schedule thus far appears to be a microcosm of last season for Richard Jefferson. There's always the possibility that his reduced minutes and limited aggressiveness are deliberate attempts to preserve his dead-eye three-point accuracy for the playoffs. 

Fans in San Antonio will gladly trade Jefferson's regular season minutes for renewed confidence and energy come the postseason.  

The Novelty Will Fade

In Danny Green's last five games, he's played for over 30 minutes all but once. For a guy who's never averaged more than 11.5 minutes in his young career, the rapid ascension in San Antonio's system may become mentally and physically taxing.

After all, Green's claim to playing time is—more than anything—his Bowen-like defensive tenacity. The crowded schedule won't decimate Green's ability to contribute, but it could certainly taper off.

Similarly, Tiago Splitter's playing time is up from 12.3 minutes a game last season to over 20 minutes a contest this time around.

Obviously, these are professional athletes, and 20 minutes a game shouldn't have anyone gasping for breath (even in the shortened season).

However, the Spurs' game plan is taxing. Its motion offense has wingmen running around off the ball for the better part of a shot-clock, and the team defense requires as much rotation as any team in the league. The question is not whether a professional athlete can get the job done. The question is whether this supporting cast can continue to do so at 100 percent as it nears the playoffs.

Don't be surprised to see these talented youngsters take a small step back thanks to the grueling schedule. For them, Ginobili's return couldn't come soon enough.