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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2012: Pitchers Ready for Breakout Years

Zachary D. RymerFeb 27, 2012

You don't need to prioritize drafting starting pitching to win your fantasy baseball league. You can afford to wait because of one simple reason:

There are a lot of good starting pitchers out there.

If you choose to wait to draft starters in your draft, there are a couple key sleepers you should key in on. They're not going to be drafted high, but as the season goes along, they could emerge as top-notch fantasy options.

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There are five guys in particular who spring to mind.

Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox

Daniel Bard is well known among baseball fans as one of the best setup men in the business.

Those days appear to be over for good. Bard's a starter now, and the Red Sox need him to be good.

Red Sox fans are freaking out over Bard being in the rotation, but he definitely has the potential to be good. As a reliever, Bard's K/9 is 9.73, and he held opponents under the Mendoza line in each of the last two seasons.

Bard won't be as dominant as a starter, but he definitely has the potential to put up good strikeout numbers. He won't pitch 200 innings, but I'd draft him in hopes that he'll be a sell-high guy at or near the All-Star break.

Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves

Brandon Beachy made 25 starts for the Braves in 2011 and was generally very good. He finished the year with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

The next step for Beachy is to make upwards of 30 starts and to pitch 200 innings. If he does that, he has the potential to be one of the best starters in fantasy.

Beachy's value is in his ability to punch hitters out. He struck out 169 hitters in 141.2 innings last season, a 10.74 K/9.

Had Beachy finished with enough innings to qualify, that would have been the best K/9 in the majors. Whatever you do, don't let somebody else end up with him in your draft.

Cory Luebke, San Diego Padres

Cory Luebke transitioned from being a reliever to being a starter midway through the 2011 season, and a lot of people overlooked just how good he was.

All you really need to know is that Luebke had a K/9 near 10 and didn't walk too many guys. Opponents hit just .209 off him and slugged just .335 against him.

Luebke's FIP (fielding independent pitching) was a 2.93, a little bit lower than his actual 3.29 ERA. That's a sign that Luebke was even better than his ERA suggests, and that means he was very good.

Plus, you always have to like Padres pitchers, as they get to pitch half their games at Petco Park. 

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

Everyone knows who Matt Moore is, and it suffices to say he's not a guy you're going to want to miss in your draft.

Moore has incredible stuff. He throws the ball in the upper 90s with ease, and he also throws a nasty slider. He's not unlike David Price, which is a compliment.

Moore has limited major league experience, but it's definitely worth pointing out that his K/9 in the big leagues is a ridiculous 14.46. In five minor league seasons from 2007-2011, Moore's K/9 was 12.7.

So yeah, he can strike people out. You're going to want those strikeouts.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Brandon Morrow is still relatively new to starting, and he just hasn't quite figured it out yet. He had a 4.49 ERA in 2010 and a 4.72 ERA last year.

Morrow has swing-and-miss stuff, though, and he uses it well. His K/9 was 10.95 in 2010, and it was 10.19 last year. That was the second-highest mark in the majors behind Zack Greinke.

Credit where credit is due, Morrow is another case of a pitcher whose ERAs don't tell the whole story. His FIP was 3.16 in 2010, and it was 3.64 in 2011. He's been a lot better than his conventional numbers indicate.

But because a lot of people only focus on conventional numbers, Morrow is going to be overlooked in your draft. Don't make that same mistake.

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