Daytona 500 Predictions: 4 Reasons This Is Carl Edwards' Race

Picking a winner for a given NASCAR race is not an exact science. It can be made to sound like it's an exact science, but the truth is that nobody has any clue what is going to happen.

The Daytona 500 is harder to predict than most. We don't really know what to expect seeing as how it's the first race of the season, and we have more than enough evidence to suggest that anything can happen. Case in point, nobody saw Trevor Bayne coming last year.

Now that we've established that you can't really predict what's going to happen in the Daytona 500, I'm going to tell you that Carl Edwards is the man to beat in this year's race.

I'm not going to bother breaking it down in exact-science terms. My reasons are far simpler, yet significant in their own ways.

Here they are.

Pole Curse Has to End Sometime

Edwards won the pole for the Daytona 500, checking in with a lap at 194.738 mph at qualifying. His was the fastest lap in Daytona qualifying in over a decade.

Winning the pole is not such a good thing, though. Pole winners are on an 11-race winless streak at Daytona. The last pole sitter to win the 500 was Dale Jarrett in 2000.

This streak has to end sometime. Simple reasoning, I know, but there is also a method to my madness.

I noted that Edwards posted the fastest qualifying time in over a decade. It was the fastest since Jeff Gordon's run in 1999, and he went on to win the 500 that year.

Edwards will succeed where Gordon succeeded.

Edwards is Hot

Edwards is coming into the 500 fresh off a very good 2011 season. He only won one race, but don't let that fool you.

Edwards finished in the top 10 in 26 of his 36 races last season, finishing in the top 5 in 19 of them. His consistent success put him in the running for his first Sprint Cup title, which he eventually lost to Tony Stewart on a tiebreaker.

But Edwards' near miss should not overshadow how good he was last season. He was a threat to win every race he was in. 

You better believe he's a threat to win the 500.

Edwards is Driven

Edwards and his team came into Daytona on a mission. They wanted to make it clear right off the bat that the disappointment of 2011 only made them more motivated.

Edwards did not shy away from admitting that he feels like they made their point in qualifying.

From ESPN.com:

"

"I think I've been asked that one-point question 4,000 times," Edwards said. "But we didn't let that disappointment slow us down. It gave us real motivation.

"So it is nice to come here and show everyone that it isn't just talk. Everybody at Roush went back to work and kept their heads down."

"

It's true that everybody talks in NASCAR, but not everyone backs it up. We can take Edwards' talk of motivation to be worth something because he actually went out and proved something before opening his mouth. It's easy to believe he's as motivated as he says he is.

The next step will see Edwards proving it out on the track this Sunday.

Edwards is Due

Take a look at his recent rack record, and you'll notice that Edwards is trending toward an elusive victory at Daytona. He's gotten a little closer every year since 2007.

Here's Edwards' last five finishes at the Daytona 500:

23rd in 2007

19th in 2008

18th in 2009

9th in 2010

2nd in 2011

The next step, obviously, is a victory. 

I'm thinking he'll get it.