Offseason Movement So Far

Fighting Chance Fantasy Sports is back!!!!  We took a little break to celebrate the holidays, but it is time to start focusing on baseball. That’s right, it is snowing like crazy here in New York, but it is time to start taking a look at the Boys of Summer and whom you should pick in your draft which still might be months away. It is good to be back talking baseball again, and to all my returning readers, welcome back. And to anyone who is reading Fighting Chance for the first time, welcome and may you find all the information you need here.

A lot has been made this offseason about the crazy amount of money that the New York Yankees have been throwing out for contracts. Well, for fantasy purposes it doesn’t matter what people make so this article will look at what you can expect from the guys who have signed free agent contracts so far.

C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees. The biggest free agent of the offseason by both size and importance, Sabathia (like most free agents) followed the big money to New York.  Sabathia finished his second straight strong season 17-10 with a 2.70 ERA. However, this was the tale of two seasons. Starting the season in Cleveland, Sabathia was just 6-8 with a robust 3.83 ERA. After being traded to Milwaukee, C.C. found another gear.  I’m not sure if it is due to the fact that the National League is supposed to be easier to pitch in, or if he saw millions and millions of dollars potentially falling off his next contract. 

Either way, Sabathia was incredible down the stretch, often taking the ball on three days rest on his way to a 11-2 record for the Brewers. Although he was clearly the class of the free agent pitchers, he does come with a few concerns. First, he heads back to the American League where he wasn’t exactly doing well in 2008. Granted he was 19-7 the season before, but he had never been that dominating of a pitcher as he was in Milwaukee. Can he remain that hot? 

Second, he has pitched a ton of innings the past couple of years, especially when he was pitching on short rest for what seemed to be the last two months of the season. He has thrown at least 180 innings in each of his eight years in the league, topping off at over 250 last season.

Will this lead to injury problems? Perhaps not, maybe he is just that durable. But you can’t be shocked if he goes through a dead arm period at some point this year, if not something worse.

Third, he has been in Cleveland forever. The pressure in Cleveland is nothing compared to what he is about to endure. If he gets off to a bad start after taking that contract and saying he didn’t want to go to NY, he will be crucified.

Is he tough skinned enough to take it? Let’s hope so but many men have not been. He has been a great pitcher and now goes to a team that SHOULD produce plenty of offense to back him up. He should be one of the first five pitchers off the board in fantasy drafts, but I think he will be drafted too soon for my tastes.

A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees. One thing you can say about A.J. Burnett is he knows how to pitch when the money is on the line...his money. If you look at his career you will see a few good seasons. Well, two of those three were when his contract was about to expire. Before 2008, he had never won more than 12 games. Hello contract year, and hello 18 wins. I really have never been a fan of Burnett’s. Instead of A.J. perhaps his initials should be D.L. The guy has made 30 starts (the usual amount if a pitcher stays relatively healthy), only twice and, you guessed it, it was during his two contract years. I know he won 18 games last year, but his ERA was over 4.00, so it wasn’t like he was dominant or anything. I just don’t see anything in his career statistics that scream “staff ace” to me, and I would suggest staying away from Burnett unless the next available pitcher is a big step down in talent.

Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees. Ok, I have spent the first part of this article being critical Yankee free agent signees, and the Yankee fans reading this have already tossed me aside as having no credibility and being a Yankee Hater. Well, I can’t say they are wrong on the Yankee Hater part, but I believe my above criticism is just. But I will not be saying anything bad about Mark Teixeira. This guy is a professional hitter. He has hit at least 33 homers and driven in over 105 runs in every season he has been in the majors except for his rookie year. He should be an incredible addition to the Yankees as he does it all. He hits for a more than respectable average, doesn’t strike out nearly as much as most sluggers do (can you say Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn??), scores nearly 100 runs every year, and stays mostly healthy. 

If I had to say one bad thing about Mark Teixeira is that he generally gets off to painfully slow starts which tends to frustrate the crap out of his fantasy owners. So, if you are lucky enough to get this guy on your team (which means you are either a Yankee fan or don’t have one in your league), please don’t get discouraged if he starts out really slow.  It has happened before, and he always breaks out of it eventually even if it is June. And if you don’t draft him, be the smart one and buy low on him in May when he is hitting .220 with seven homers. The power is coming, the stats don’t lie.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants. Edgar is a nice option for those of you who decide to pass on the elite options at shortstop and wait until late in the draft to pick one.  He has never hit for any power, but has hit at least ten homers in nine of the last ten years. However, his average has been incredibly impossible to predict, his RBIs have dropped for five straight years, as have his hit totals. He doesn’t really steal many bases anymore, and his value is not nearly where it used to be. Renteria can still be a useful player for your team, although the effect of moving to San Francisco won’t be determined until he starts to play. He was always much better in the National League with the Cardinals and Braves than he was with the Red Sox and Tigers. However, the Giants’ lineup isn’t very good and opponents will be making an extra effort to get Renteria out.  All in all, I would be shocked if his numbers went outside of his career averages from the last ten years and he won’t kill your team, but he doesn’t excel at any fantasy category.

Francisco Rodriguez/J.J. Putz, New York Mets. The Metropolitians decided that they needed to bolster their bullpen, and boy were they right. With the season long injury to Billy Wagner they definitely needed to find themselves an established closer and they signed the best with Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod broke the single season saves record with 62 in 2008 and cashed in after it. Although he was certainly the best closer on the market, he comes with a few concerns. There have been some reports of a loss of velocity with Rodriguez from the high 90s to about 93 mph on average. He also gives up a good number of walks and hits, and he usually makes his saves interesting for his team and his fantasy owners. All in all, K-Rod should be among the top four closers off the draft board this upcoming season. New York wasn’t done upgrading the ‘pen and traded for J.J. Putz.  Two years ago he was perhaps the most dominant closer in the game. He was mired by injury and inconsistency in 2008, and was removed from his role in the second half of the season. Putz will be relegated to the eighth-inning role for the Mets, but if something were to happen to K-Rod, Putz would be the hottest pickup in fantasy.

Milton Bradley, Chicago Cubs. Bradley has always been a great hitter, but he has two problems. One is his temper has gotten him in trouble and suspended on more than one occasion. And two is he seems to be bitten by the injury bug at least once a season. He has never played more than 141 games in his career, and has only played over 100 three times since 2000. When he is on the field though, Bradley can have a big impact on a fantasy team. He does strike out a bit too much, but he does have good power, hits for a pretty decent average, and will even swipe a few bases. Don’t stretch too early on Bradley, but late in your draft he would be a nice addition to your team just expect him to miss some time. But going to a nice small park like Wrigley Field can only help his stats.

Pat Burrell, Tampa Bay Rays. This move was certainly the best for both player and team. Burrell needed to get out of the National League because his knees make him a huge liability in the field. He should slot right in to the DH role for Tampa on most nights.  The Rays needed another veteran bat that can hit the long ball, and Burrell needed his career extended by going to a team that didn’t need him to play left field for 155 games.  Burrell can still hit homers, he has at least 29 in each of the last four years, but he is never going to hit more than .250. Burrell could be a nice fourth outfielder for you as you can pretty much write in that he is going to hit .255 with 30 homers and 87 RBI.

Randy Johnson, San Francisco Giants. When Randy Johnson has been able to stay healthy (30 starts in four of the last five seasons) he actually has been fairly effective. He hasn’t had a losing record since 2003, and he still knows how to rack up the strikeouts.  His ERA will still be in the high 3s, but since he will be the fourth starter in San Francisco there shouldn’t be a ton of pressure on him. And by looking at the rest of the teams in the NL West, it looks like there will be a ton of opportunities for Johnson to face some weak hitting. He is now an end of the draft sort of selection, but I think he is a great low risk/high reward kind of players.

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers. Before his injury in early May, Furcal was on pace to be the NL MVP. He was hitting over .350 and had five homers and eight steals in just 34 games. If he is able to come back healthy this season the Dodgers could have themselves a great signing. I don’t believe that he will get back on the pace he was on to start 2008, but he has always been a solid player. You can expect him to hit near .300, he will score 100 runs, probably steal 35 bases and hit 8-10 homers. Furcal is among the top five to ten shortstops and could be a bargain pick this season as many owners may overlook him to do his long injury last season.

Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians. Wood had been the poster boy for the Disabled List for most of the last ten years. However, he was able to stay on the mound for most of the season for the Cubs after being moved to the closer’s role. He wasn’t dominant, but he got the job done most of the time converting 34 out of 40 chances. Wood continued to strike people out though as he rang up 84 batters in just 66 innings. Because of his injury concerns it will drop Wood down to the second tier of closers, but he is a pretty good risk.  I think he will have a pretty long leash and it should take a series of meltdowns before he is in jeopardy of losing the job. His ERA won’t be pretty, but if you need strikeouts Wood should be a great choice.

Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I guess it was the lack of established closers on the market that made Fuentes such a hot ticket because it couldn’t have been his recent performance. He did save 30 games last season, but the Rockies didn’t even have him as their closer to start the season. If it wasn’t for a meltdown by Manny Corpas to start the season, Fuentes might not have had any saves. He is a former All-Star, but his ERA was near 3.00, which for a closer isn’t really that good. He did have 82 Ks in just 62 innings, but he hasn’t been a great strikeout pitcher over his career. Fuentes now goes from a team that struggles to compete in the National League to one of the best teams in all of baseball in the Angels. He will get a ton of save opportunities in Anaheim and it could give his fantasy value a good bump upward.

Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies. Perhaps one of the better bargains in free agency this season, Ibanez has been doing the same thing for the last seven years. He has hit between 21 and 33 homers and driven in between 89 and 123 runs.  Ibanez will always hit for a good average, around .290 to .300. He isn’t the sexy pick, and he will never be flashy, but Ibanez is a professional hitter and the Phillies got themselves a nice player.  Going from the American League to the National League should help out his stats some, but an even better help will be that matchbox replica of a stadium in Philadelphia. I would look for Ibanez to hit towards the higher end of his recent range of stats and be a good third or fourth outfielder for your team.

Jaime Moyer, Philadelphia Phillies. The Ancient One is still getting it done and still eating up innings. Moyer has thrown over 195 innings for the last three years and has had a combined winning record over that time. The Phillies brought him back as a consistent arm that they could count on to take the ball every five days and keep them in games.  Moyer still has borderline fantasy value. He isn’t someone that I would keep on my roster for the entire season, but on those weeks that he pitches twice, or if he has a good matchup (read:  Padres), he is a nice plug in player. He is 46 years old, however, so if the wheels completely fall off don’t be overly surprised.