Big 12 Football: The 7 Stages of the Conference's Collapse

After over a decade of playing a major role in the BCS and its flawed system, the Big 12 has begun the slow, excruciating journey of falling to pieces. The formerly great conference, once dominated by the likes of some of the most storied programs in the country, is nothing more than a top-heavy league searching for a way to become elite again.

While losing Nebraska and Colorado, two solid northern programs, was no cakewalk, the Big 12 still had the means to recover. Unfortunately for this middle-American conference, however, any true shot at remaining a power in the college football world died with the exit of both Texas A&M and Missouri this past season.

In an intelligent, yet seemingly desperate, attempt to improve their declining status, the Big 12 acquired TCU and West Virginia. Both provided a new presence to the conference yet, despite many of the current members' protestations, aren't true replacements for Missouri and Texas A&M on the gridiron, in the classroom or as rivals.

As the league progresses towards its impending breakdown, there are many steps to be taken and paths be crossed. We take a look at the seven stages of the Big 12's collapse, ranging over what has already happened, what is happening and what will happen over the course of the next few years.  

1) Denial

As the Big 12 has watched three of its signature programs take their leave of the conference, it has remained extremely optimistic of its future in the college football world.

The conference has heavily relied on the powers of Texas and Oklahoma to support its endeavors for a long time, leading it to believe that it didn't need the backing of universities such as Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M.

This denial is not only completely wrong, but will lead to almost every other stage on this list. This stage helped the conference survive the loss, but also led to a cockiness that will destroy it later on. Entertaining the thought that one can compete with the power leagues such as the Big Ten, Pac-12 and the SEC at such a weakened state is delusional at best.

Texas A&M, Nebraska, Mizzou and Colorado all brought some of the most loyal fanbases and a ton of revenue. Their TV markets, academic standing and competition on the gridiron are all, together, necessities that the Big 12 denies it ever really needed.

The first step of its downfall is complete. 

2) Bargaining

This stage is extremely integral to the conference's collapse. After losing Texas A&M and Missouri, the Big 12 acquired TCU to replace the Aggies and West Virginia to take over for Mizzou. Both add a very unique prowess to the league, yet don't truly hold up to the influence that A&M and Missouri brought.

TCU is a very unproven program. The Horned Frogs' performance in the MWC has been impressive as of late, but counting on them to take over for Texas A&M competing against some of the best teams in the Southwest is completely out of the question. Unlike the Aggies, they aren't AAU nor do they bring in a new market for the conference to gain from financially.

West Virginia, while bringing in one of the top football histories in the nation, is basically on the East Coast. Its distance from the rest of conference is awkward and uninspiring considering who the Mountaineers will be taking over for.

Mizzou may not have been any kind of super-program on the gridiron, but at least it has provided strong competition, great financial support and a deep academic presence as an AAU member. For the latter two items, the Mountaineers fall short. 

The Big 12 believed it got a bargain for these two universities, hoping that Texas' Longhorn Network will bring more viewership for the league now that it has survived its first season. Instead, the conference will find out that TCU can't truly compete on the gridiron nor as a recruiter and that WVU is just a little too far away and has no big-money markets to bring into the Southwest. 

The second stage has also been completed.

3) Delusion

This is the stage that the conference begins to realize that things aren't as peachy-keen as it thought. For the past couple of months since A&M and Missouri's defection, the Big 12 has been gunning to get back to 12 teams sometime in the near future. 

With the addition of both WVU and TCU to reach 10, gaining two more signature programs would be the way to shove their supremacy in everyone else's faces. Its targets to reach that goal are Louisville, Cincinnati, Boise State, BYU and Notre Dame.

While the Cardinals and the Bearcats are somewhat realistic, they aren't gridiron powers in any way, shape or form. The other three are, for all intents and purposes, out of its league at this point. BYU was extremely promising early on, but with the falling out over certain particulars, that ship has pretty much sailed.

Boise State is distant from the central powers of the conference and presents a gamble as a competitive force on the field. The Broncos been a BCS buster since 2006, but no one really knows if they'll be able to handle a power conference. BSU would be a dangerous pickup especially considering three of its games per year would be against Texas, OU and WVU.

Finally, Notre Dame and its football supremacy. The Fighting Irish have had their own network deal for ages now, making them one of the most successful programs financially, on the field and in the classroom. However, if the Big 12 truly believes that Notre Dame will give up all that just to compete in a glued-together conference, it's more than a bit delusional. The sooner the conference realizes this, the better.

This is the current stage of the conference's collapse.     

4) Anger

Once the delusions of grandeur have been quelled, the power programs will begin to have some worries. Even if the conference is competing well on the national scale, an unknown future can be frightening, and fear is the medium in which anger is born. 

Realizing that their league is not a part of the college football's mega-conference layout, Texas, OU and WVU will all begin to panic. Their anger will span many different subjects from frustration at Notre Dame not joining to Texas A&M, Nebraska and Missouri taking their leave.

This is the first stage in which the conference actually understands what's happening. The self-awareness alone will cause the smaller programs to begin reaching out to leagues such as the MWC, C-USA and any others that might take them. Fear of being left out of a conference will be the motivating force behind every university's actions.

This stage will occur sometime over the next couple of years. Its placement is extremely volatile due to the fact that it directly depends on the previous stage to end before it can take effect.  

5) Depression

Once the anger of realizing the conference doesn't have a secure future, the programs within it will make the whole collapse a self-fulfilling prophecy. Their panic will literally tear the league to pieces.  

For the powers of the Big 12 such as OU, Texas and WVU, they will begin to register the fact that they will no longer easily sit at the top of wherever their new home is. Competition will be tougher, and winning league titles will be much more rare in the very near future.

This depression stage will be short because the universities still in the conference will understand that they must take action swiftly. Wallowing in self-pity is no way to gain access to new leagues. The process is neither quick nor easy and starting up talks with them yourself places you in a undesirable no man's land.

This stage will immediately take place after anger is completed. It may last longer for some universities than others, but will, more or less, end quickly as the programs understand the need for a jump back into reality. 

6) Acceptance

Once the members of conference have finally come to terms with their despairing situation, they all will accept their different fates. Some of the weaker programs will begin conversations with other conferences or attempt to merge the Big 12 with the Big East.

The more powerful universities will draw up plans to take their talents to one of the other major conferences ranging somewhere between the Pac-12 and the SEC. The final season or two together will be special, but with the destruction of the conference looming, tensions will be running high.

Acceptance of the Big 12's collapse will be particularly difficult for programs such as Baylor who fought hard for Texas A&M to stay. The Bears won't have much to give to any new conference, and their display last summer will be a giant warning not to give them any consideration.

Acknowledgment of the conference's collapse will, more or less, just a be a moment in time. Realizing the demise is inevitable, and understanding that they must move on to survive is a key juncture in this process. 

This stage will also be short as the final stage approaches. 

7) Realignment

The destruction of the Big 12 will conclude itself in this final stage. In a last push for conference realignment, the Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten will all be calling on the bigger programs to join them in their respective regions of the country.

The Pac-12 will still be gunning to make its coveted Pac-16 possible with the addition of Texas, OU, OSU and Texas Tech/TCU. In all likelihood, this is the scenario with the highest probability for these five big-shots. The academics of the Pac-12 combined with its athletic prowess will be a solid fit for almost every one of the above mentioned programs, with either TCU or Tech filling the fourth spot.

The Big Ten might end up calling upon possibly Kansas and K-State, looking to improve its basketball rank by adding both programs. The Wildcats would even add some decent football competition if they can continue to play on the same level that they have for the past season.

Finally, the SEC should be gunning for the Oklahoma schools and WVU. The Mountaineers would still choose the ACC over anyone else, but with that possibility a true pipe dream, the SEC is their best bet.

The nation's top football conference's first two choices, however, should be OU and OSU. David Boren, Oklahoma's President, has been against merging with the SEC due to their seemingly low academics, but the additions of AAU schools Missouri and Texas A&M shoots big holes in his argument. This fact alone may be enough to snare the Sooners and the Cowboys.

The concluding phase of the Big 12's collapse might take time, but will be decisively destructive when it finally comes into fruition.