Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2012: Top Candidates for Major Bounce-Back Seasons

Generally speaking, the best strategy for the later rounds of a fantasy baseball draft is to go on the prowl looking for high-ceiling youngsters and players on the verge of a breakout season. Thankfully, there are a lot of them to go around.

If you want, you can also be on the lookout for fallen stars who still have the goods to produce a solid fantasy season.

It seems like there are more of these players than usual in 2012. We saw a lot of big-name players fall flat in 2011 (see Dunn, Adam) and you have to think some of them are going to bounce back in a big way in 2012.

Since you're asking, here are five players that I have my eye on.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants

To be fair, Madison Bumgarner didn't have a bad season in 2011. He won 13 games and posted a solid 3.21 ERA.

However, Bumgarner was far from perfect. He gave up nearly a hit per inning, allowing opponents to hit .260 off of him. He kept his walks down, but he didn't miss too many bats when he threw the ball in the strike zone.

It wasn't all Bumgarner's fault, though. The numbers suggest he suffered from bad luck in 2011. We know this because he posted a FIP of 2.67 last year, which was the fourth-highest mark in all of baseball. Based on his performance, Bumgarner should have been right up there with Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw.

So I'm including Bumgarner in this countdown not because he could redeem himself, but because he represents a legit gold-striking opportunity.

A.J. Burnett, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

What exactly went wrong with A.J. Burnett last season?

That's a good question. His strikeout and walk numbers were on par with his career averages and his ground-ball percentage of 49.2 was the best mark he had posted since 2007.

Burnett's biggest problem was keeping the ball in the park when hitters did get it in the air. Exactly 17 percent of the fly balls hit off Burnett resulted in home runs, which is a very high percentage.

The good news is that Burnett is off the Yankees now. With the Pirates, he'll have the luxury of facing National League lineups, and he'll get to pitch quite a few games in PNC Park, which is not a good park for home run hitters.

Burnett's stuff should translate to better numbers in 2012, making him a great late-round pickup.

Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox

Carl Crawford just never got right in 2011. He was the worst hitter in the American League in April and he just wasn't himself even after he improved the rest of the way. It was a horrid year, plain and simple.

But let's face it. The Crawford we saw in 2011 is not the Crawford we know and love. His batting line of .255/.289/.405 was well below the .299/.340/.448 line he averaged from 2004-2010 with Tampa Bay. Moreover, a speedster like Crawford has no business stealing just 18 bases.

Crawford may have to miss some time at the start of the season with a wrist injury. After he comes back, new Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine will have to find a home for Crawford in Boston's order.

If Crawford lucks out, he'll go back to being a force again. He was awful in 2011, but we're talking about one of the best players in the game when things are going well.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Miami Marlins

This time last year, we were talking about Hanley Ramirez as a potential No. 1 overall pick. He then proceeded to have an absolutely disastrous season. 

Like Crawford, Ramirez just never got going in 2011. He started slow and he continued to underachieve even after recovering from his slow start. He was not himself.

It's a new season, and Ramirez is going to be playing a new position. He'll have shortstop and third base eligibility, which only increases his value. The only question will be whether or not he'll hit.

I think he will. We likely won't see Ramirez get anywhere close to his 2009 numbers, but he can't be any worse than he was in 2011. If his surgically-repaired left shoulder holds up, Ramirez will be a good starting option at short or third. Probably not a great option, mind you, but good enough.

Carlos Zambrano, SP, Miami Marlins

We go from one Marlin to another. This particular Marlin simply had to get out of Chicago this offseason.

The Marlins really have nothing to lose with Carlos Zambrano. They're not paying him a whole lot and they're getting a player who has to be relieved that he's out of a situation that had been bad for a long time.

Do the numbers suggest Zambrano will be a stud in Miami? Not really. Zambrano has been a wreck because he's put too many guys on base in recent seasons, and he just hasn't been fooling anyone.

On the bright side, Zambrano did post his lowest BB/9 since 2008 in 2011 and his FIP of 4.59 was a little lower than his 4.82 ERA.

So, the numbers suggest Zambrano might be a little bit better in 2012. If he relaxes and learns to enjoy himself on his new team, he could be great again. He's worth a late-round gamble.