Fantasy Baseball 2012: Draft Steals at Each Position

Well, it's that time of year again...fantasy baseball draft season.  You know that there is top-tier talent you'll draft early, but what about the rest of the roster?  In that spirit, here are players at 14 positions you can snag late to fill out a much-needed position...or at least a lot later than equally good players.  Or, if you're doing auction drafting, players that can be gotten late for $5.00 or less...or at least $5.00 less than the next best player.

Catcher: Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina hit .305 last season with 65 RBI, 55 runs and 221 total bags.   He's had a batting average of .290 or better and 175 total bags in three of the last four seasons, an OPS of .700 or better in four of the last five seasons and 50 RBI in the last four seasons.  Furthermore, he's started 135 or more games in each of the last three seasons, which is virtually unthinkable for a backstop. 

He's projected to fall in the 170s or 180s this season, meaning that most other teams will draft catchers (including the more riskier Brian McCann, Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, and the much-worse hitting J.P. Arencibia and Geovany Soto) before the ever-reliable Yadi.  Get Yadi if you can, even in a six or eight-team league. He could come in handy as a backup catcher or utility player.

1st Baseman: Freddie Freeman

Freeman enters his second full MLB season as the 15th-ranked first baseman on ESPN, and is all the way down at No. 23 on Yahoo!  He typically falls between 100 and 130 in a draft, meaning that if you're in a large league and choose to build up pitching or other positions, he'd be waiting for you when you come around to needing a first baseman. 

Not that you wouldn't completely want him in any sized league.  He's projected to hit .287 with 20 dingers, 87 RBI and 70 runs.  He also has a nice tenancy to be drafted below his value, and with a career .996 fielding percentage, he's a solid choice in leagues that track fielding stats.

2nd Base: Jemile Weeks

Here's an opportunity to take a chance on an up-and-coming player.  Since being called up the middle of last season, Weeks has batted .303 with 22 stolen bases and 171 stolen bases.  Extrapolated to playing 155 games last season, he would have totaled 273 total bags and 35 stolen bases. 

If he gets anywhere near that this season, he'll be well worth the 150-160 draft pick you'd spend to get him. 

3rd Base: Ryan Roberts

Ryan Roberts flew under the radar last season with a .249/.341/.427 triple hash, 19 dingers, 18 stolen bags and 206 total bags.  This season, he's not even projected in the top 200, a surprise for a man who does have something to offer in multiple tools. 

A combo third and second baseman, Roberts is a decent large-league option at either position in addition to being a solid utility or bench option in smaller leagues.  He can be snagged late in snake drafts, and for $1.00-$2.00 in auction drafts.

If you're looking for a steal in a smaller league, I'd look at Aramis Ramirez.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy

Hardy is projected in the mid-100s, and is a solid choice at utility player or large-league starter.  He has a career .756 OPS, and has had 250 or more total bases and 70 RBI in each of his last three seasons.  Last season, he batted .269 with 30 dingers, 80 RBI and 70 runs. 

He is projected to regress slightly, but is still a bargain in the later rounds.  Like Freeman, Hardy is a solid defensive player who led all AL shortstops in range factor and fielding percentage.

Outfielder for Average: Hunter Pence

Since most leagues draft three outfielders regardless of position, I've decided to break the outfield down by tools rather than by left, center or right. 

Pence is one of the better players in the draft, but averaging to be the 12th or 13th outfielder, most teams will have selected an outfielder by the time he rolls around at about the 40th pick. 

Pence is a solid pick to build an outfield around if you made decent No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 picks at other positions, and is even a solid choice if you selected another outfielder early. He is projected to come close to 100 RBI and a .300 average.       

Outfielder for Fences: Josh Willingham

Last season, Willingham finished as one of the 100 best players in the majors.  He's finally found a home this season with the Twins, and is projected to be drafted No. 200 or later. 

Quite a fall for a player who has had at least 15 dingers and 150 total bases in each of his last six seasons, and who had 29 home runs and 98 RBI last year.  If he's anywhere close to that, the 200th pick is a steal for him.  

Outfielder for Speed: Ángel Pagán

Need a multi-tool player who steals lots of bases and can be picked up late?  May I suggest Angel Pagan, who has been trending well after 200.

Pagan has stolen 30 or more bases in both seasons he had 500 plate appearances, and hit north of .260 all throughout his career.  This season, Pagan is projected to again steal more than 30 bags while scoring 75 times, bat .278 and have an OPS well north of .700.  Quite a bargain for a late-round pick.

Utility Player: Michael Young

Even though Michael Young is rated in the top 60 or 70 in most rankings, I still think he's somewhat undervalued. Consider his positional eligibility: he places at first, third, DH, and even second in some leagues.

Young hit .338 last season (his seventh .300 season), with 106 RBI and 299 total bags.  Even if his numbers drop down to .300, 92 RBI and 275 total bags, he's a steal in the 60s.   

Starting Pitcher: C.J. Wilson

C.J. Wilson is rated in the top 70 in the ESPN rankings, but considerably lower in Yahoo!  projections, perhaps even a little underrated. 

For one, he is going to get even more run production with the Pujols-led Angels than he did last year with the Rangers.  Two, he has had a sub-3.40 ERA and 7.5 or more Ks per nine innings  in each of the last three years.  Repeating those numbers, and likely adding 15 or more victories, will make Wilson a good value in the 70s.

Wilson is a great call for your No. 2 starter in just about any league, particularly points-based leagues or leagues that don't track WHIP.  And his rank, particularly in Yahoo!, means that in an auction draft he will go for just about his projected value.

Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto

One of the 25 best starters in baseball last season, Cueto is predicted to fall to at least the 150s in the draft; perhaps much later, meaning $1.00-3.00 territory in auction leagues. 

I think it's quite possible we see something closer to a repeat of last season.  There are two things that would justify the assumption: first, he's only 26, and second, that he is now pitching in an NL central devoid of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. 

Starting Pitcher: Doug Fister

The projections for Fister differ wildly.  ESPN has him at No. 144 (though he's very often drafted after that), but Yahoo! has him down at No. 207, even though he was No. 51 last season. 

He'll be pitching for a team that will be offering much more run support than he had when he was with the Mariners.  The raters are essentially projecting that Fister will hurl for the 4.00-plus ERA he had back in Seattle without much run support. 

A more likely outcome is that Fister will be worse than he was in the second half of last season, but better than he was in Seattle. This would still make him a steal in the 150s.

Middle Reliever: Mike Adams

If you're drafting for a large league, a deep one or one that tracks holds, you're going to have to look into drafting a middle reliever.  For that, I'll suggest the Texas lefty, who was among the best middle relievers of last season offering a stellar ERA, a lot of holds and a decent K/9. 

He has been consistent over the last four years, averaging a 1.76 ERA and 9.9 K/9.  Though he's projected to fall off a little this season, he'll still be one of the best middle relievers in the draft. 

Rated as the 300th-best player by Yahoo! and the 37th-best reliever by ESPN, he can be selected in the late rounds of a 10 or 12-team draft, or in the $1.00 range in auction drafts.

Closer: Joel Hanrahan

Joel Hanrahan's a decent No. 1 or No. 2 option in the relief slot, but seems to be overlooked in favor of bigger names (and bigger manes) like Brian Wilson, who don't offer a measurable increase in stats but are picked a round or two earlier. 

Hanrahan is again projected to have a decent ERA and finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 36 saves, again in the top 10 of closers.  Even in auction leagues where people overbid for saves, Hanrahan goes late enough that he rarely goes for more than $7.00 or $8.00, half of what more well-known names that aren't that much better go for.