2012 NFL Mock Draft: Teams with Easiest Choices in First Round
Easy selections in the NFL Draft, is there such a thing?
There is, but as with most things in talent evaluation, even the seemingly obvious, doesn't always pan out.
Still, the best thing a team can do, is to fill obvious needs with the best players available when it's their time on the clock.
There are a decent number of "no brainers" in the first round.
Barring some movement, here they are highlighted and detailed in a mock draft of the first round:
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
The easiest selection of the draft is the first one. Even if Peyton Manning had not been injured, Luck would be the most obvious selection.
Why is it an easy selection?
Even without Manning's injury, he still turns 36 this March. It is time for the Colts to draft his successor.
It just so happens that the best QB prospect since Manning, is available for the Colts to select. The injury makes Luck an even more obvious pick.
What will year one look like?
It could be a bumpy year for Luck. If Jim Irsay continues this charade with Manning and the Colts' fans for an extended period of time, it'll just make Luck's transition harder.
If he clears the way for Luck, as it's obvious is his intention, he will create some normalcy for Luck in his rookie season.
Luck will have his struggles as he takes over a team that doesn't have a plethora of weapons. Still, he will show flashes and plenty of validation for the Colts selecting him first overall.
Colts' fans should remember, Manning's rookie stat line was: 3739 yards passing, 26 TDs, 28 INTs and a QB Rating of 71.2.
2. Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Browns will trade up to get RG3, as he is too coveted by other teams to take a chance he'll be available at four. They will likely package their 22nd overall pick to make sure they get their man.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have as many holes as any team in the NFL. With no Andrew Luck or RG3 on the board, the Vikes will have to go safe. Nothing is safer than taking the top offensive lineman on the board.
Why is it an easy selection?
No matter what the philosophy of offense, a top flight offensive tackle is a commodity in any system. Kalil is by far the best O-Line prospect in the draft. His combination of size and athleticism is impressive.
The Vikings started the underwhelming Charlie Johnson at Left Tackle in 2011, and Kalil is a definite upgrade there. Combine that with Phil Loadholt on the right side, and the Vikings have the talent to better contain the games' best edge rushers.
The Vikings gave up 49 sacks last year, they have to address that problem.
How big a step is this in improving the Vikings overall?
It won't be an overnight transformation, there are simply too many holes for one pick to fix. As a rookie tackle, he will have his ups-and-downs, but it can't be any worse than the 49 sacks Charlie Johnson helped surrender.
4. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
There has been talk of Blackmon slipping because of a lack of speed.
Blackmon is very much like Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree, and the Rams will surely recognize that and take him here at number four.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bucs 21st ranked defense needs to improve, and Claiborne is the best defensive player in this draft.
6. Washington Redskins: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
No Matt Barkley or RG3 equals a defensive pick.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Brockers' ability to get to the QB will attract the Jags, especially since he has the versatility to move inside and outside on the defensive line.
8. Carolina Panthers: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
This will be one of the biggest sleeper picks in the first round. Coples will have a big rookie season (think Jevon Kearse).
9. Miami Dolphins: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Miami will have bookend tackles with Reiff and Jake Long after this pick.
10. Buffalo Bills: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
Upshaw will provide a much needed pass rusher out of the 3-4 scheme for the Bills.
11. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
The Seahawks must draft an insurance policy for the oft-injured Sidney Rice.
12. Kansas City Chiefs: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Jamaal Charles suffered a season ending knee injury last year and the Chiefs attack is built around their bruising running game. No back in the draft fits their philosophy better than Richardson
Why is it an easy selection?
Charles should make a full recovery, but knee injuries to RBs are always a huge concern. Even healthy, the league is employing two back systems on a large scale. Preferably those systems feature two backs with contrasting running styles.
That would certainly be the case with the fleet footed Charles and the bruising Richardson.
Worse case scenario..
Charles suffers another physical setback, but the Chiefs have the best RB in the 2012 NFL Draft to step in as their featured back. He would then share carries with Dexter McCluster, or a newcomer to the Chiefs' backfield.
Either way, the Chiefs rushing attack won't miss a beat.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Cardinals won't likely be thrilled with their QB situation, but at least they can grab someone to protect whomever is under center.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
This will either boom or bust in the Cowboys' face. Jenkins could be one of the true stars from this draft or fizzle out because of immaturity.
I'm betting on the former.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
Mike Vick hasn't had a big body receiver since his days in Atlanta with Brian Finneran and Michael Jenkins.
Jeffery has a lot to prove and this is a great situation for him.
16. New York Jets: Nick Perry, OLB, USC
The Jets will hope that Perry's pass rush skills can put the fear factor back into "Gang Green's" defense.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
Safety valves are great for any QB, but it's especially the case for young ones. Lamar Miller is the best dual purpose back in the draft and that is a great weapon for Andy Dalton.
Why is it an easy selection?
Cedric Benson is a unrestricted free agent, and is not expected back, he is going to be 29 this season, and that is generally death valley for a RB (at least the bruising backs).
Benson had the lowest yards after contact average of any RB that played in at least half his teams' games.
Enter Miller.
He is not a bruising runner, in fact, there are concerns about his bulk and strength. He is coming off a shoulder injury, but at 5'11" 212 pounds, I believe he can hold up, and doesn't present more of a risk than any other RB prospect.
His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and his speed to turn hand offs and screen passes into big plays will add a new dimension to the Bengals offense.
Miller's abilities gives defense a major threat to account for, besides A.J. Green.
18. San Diego Chargers: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
His dominating performance at Senior Bowl likely solidified his first round status.
19. Chicago Bears: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
The Bears will likely pursue a big receiver in free agency, Wright is the perfect compliment.
20. Tennessee Titans: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Ingram figures to kill it at the combine, so he could rise even further, but if not, the Titans won't let him pass.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech
The Bengals also need insurance at CB.
Leon Hall is returning from a serious knee injury, and Hosley is a nice get either as a starter or nickel corner for the time being.
22. St. Louis Rams: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
With the Browns pick in the RG3 deal, the Rams further solidify their offense with DeCastro.
23. Detroit Lions: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Minnifield is my number-one sleeper pick in the first round.
He has dynamic athleticism and he will surprise people if he works out at the combine and on the field.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma
James Harrison is old and heavily fined. It is time for the Steelers to draft his successor.
25. Denver Broncos: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
For the Broncos, as long as Tim Tebow is under center, it will be about defense and running the football.
The massive Poe goes a long way in strengthening the Broncos run stuffing defense.
26. Houston Texans: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
Sanu is one of the most underrated players in the draft.
If Andre Johnson's injury woes continue, Sanu could be in line as the Texans next go to receiver.
27. New England Patriots: Stephen Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Patriots defense improved over the season, but CB is still a need and Gilmore fits the Patriot way.
28. Green Bay Packers: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
More offense for the Packers?
Not exactly more, it's more of a move to replace a valuable player they figure to lose.
Why is it a easy selection?
The Packers may have to choose between TE Jermichael Finley and C Scott Wells. Both are elite performers headed for free agency, but it appears Finley is headed for the franchise tag. Jason La Conofra of NFL.com writes:
"Jermichael Finley has suffered through some injuries and the Packers won a Super Bowl without him. He also dropped a fair amount of balls this past season, but with the franchise tag for tight ends a steal at $5.5 million, no way Green Bay lets a young difference-maker like this get away. Finley isn't going to love the idea of being tagged and this could drag out a while, with him not in a rush to sign the tender. But I can't imagine the Packers letting someone with his skill set walk.
"
Once that is done, the Packers aren't likely to spring big for Wells who is due a huge raise from his 2011 salary of $2.75 million. He figures to command a salary in the range of $5 million dollars per season.
It's comparable to Ryan Kalil of Carolina's contract, as he is considered one of, if not the best center in the NFL.
That is almost all of the Packers' remaining cap room which figures to be around $10 million. It would be easier and more cost efficient to draft Konz here.
Konz is the best center prospect in the draft, he went to Wisconsin and he allows the Packers to let Wells walk. The Packers can use that salary slot for a more pressing need, most likely on the defensive side of the ball.
What free agents could the Packers pursue with Wells salary slot?
Carlos Rogers or Brent Grimes.
Charles Woodson is a legend, and he may very well be on his way to the Hall of Fame, but he's 35 years old. The Packers need to get younger in the secondary. The Packers pass defense was dead last in the NFL. Some of that was about teams playing catch up in the regular season, but Eli Manning and the Giants exposed holes in the postseason.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State
Assuming a player's heart and mind are in the right place, achieving in football is all about: system, situation and talent. Burfict will have to take care of the first two, but the Ravens are a perfect fit for him.
Why is it a easy selection?
The Ravens need to draft Ray Lewis' successor and Burfict has the skill set. He has personality concerns, but leadership from Ray Lewis can create the work ethic Burfict needs to be successful.
If a young player like Burfict doesn't respect Lewis, then he may never reach his ceiling. He can play alongside him until Lewis retires, and then take over for him.
What could go wrong?
Burfict could be the rare talent that can't be reached, even by a logical mentor. If that is the case, the Ravens will still be looking for a successor to Lewis and this will be a wasted pick.
Still, it's one they have to make.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
San Fran has two unrestricted free agents in the secondary (Carlos Rogers and Dashon Goldson) they figure to lose one.
Dennard is the best available CB at this point.
31. New England Patriots: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois
Pats land the player with the coolest football name in the draft.
Oh yeah, he also projects as a pretty nice pass rusher as well.
32. New York Giants: Chris Polk, RB, Washington
The Giants RBS have been inconsistent and injury prone, it's time for a youth injection.
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