2012 NFL Mock Draft: Thoughts and Analysis of Matt Miller's AFC East Picks

There's almost no predicting what New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will do with his two first round picks in the 2012 NFL draft. Excuse Bleacher Report's draft aficionado Matt Miller for trying, anyway.

And just like last year, mock analysts have the unenviable task of trying to do so twice—once for each of New England's two first-round picks.

Miller gave us his latest first-round mock draft after the Super Bowl. Here's what he had to say about the AFC East's potential picks.

No. 9: Miami Dolphins Select Nick Perry, Defensive End, USC

Matt says: "Nick Perry would be an instant upgrade at defensive end or outside linebacker, depending on the scheme being run. If Miami wants to run a hybrid defense, like those popular in Baltimore and Arizona, they'll need a player who can get upfield and pressure the edge from multiple spots on the field. Perry can fill this role from day one."

My slant: So it's not Robert Griffin III, but with Jason Taylor set to retire, the Dolphins would be wise to go after a defensive player. Their defense showed signs of life in 2011, and there may be no better way to keep things moving the right direction than to add another dynamic pass-rusher opposite Cameron Wake.

The Dolphins may need help in the secondary, and obviously at quarterback, but when it comes to the draft, the New York Giants have proven that you can never draft too many top-notch pass-rushers.

No. 10: Buffalo Bills Select Courtney Upshaw, Defensive End, Alabama

Matt says: "Upshaw is a bit small at defensive end, but he has very long arms and the bulk to work off blockers. He will fill the role of speed rusher well coming off the right edge."

My slant: Bills fans may become apoplectic if the team drafts anywhere besides the defensive side of the ball. At least the offense showed signs of life; the Bills defense held just three of their opponents below 23 points all season.

A large part of the Bills' problems on defense stemmed from a pass rush that finished with just 29 sacks on the season. The Bills have tried fervently to fix the problem for years, but came a year too soon on Aaron Maybin and two years too late on Shawne Merriman. 

At 6'2" and 265 pounds, Upshaw could be just the guy for them in the front seven. There has been a lot of buzz about him post-Senior Bowl, and there isn't the same element of uncertainty as there was around Maybin when the team drafted him in 2008.

No. 16: New York Jets Select Melvin Ingram, Outside Linebacker, South Carolina

Matt says: "The clear and present need is at outside linebacker. Melvin Ingram is the best of the available players and the only one who could step in and make a major impact in the AFC East from day one. Ingram closed out a fantastic senior season with a solid showing at the Senior Bowl. He proved there that he has the strength to play in-line at defensive end and the speed to stand up at outside linebacker."

My slant: Smart move by the Jets. Their defense is aging, specifically on the outside, and even where they're not aging (Bryan Thomas will be 32 in 2012), they're not very talented in terms of depth.

The Jets defense was still one of the best in the league against the pass, despite not getting much of a rush from their front seven. They love their big, physical bodies in the front seven, and a guy like Ingram could come in and immediately be effective in Rex Ryan's 46 defense. With a pass-rusher that has the ability to impact games like Ingram did in 2011, the Jets could turn things around very quickly.

No. 27: New England Patriots Select Jamell Fleming, Cornerback, Oklahoma

Matt says: "Fleming's ability to press at the line and then recover downfield will make him a hot commodity once the scouting combine commences. His name is starting to generate the recognition that his play deserves."

My slant: Not surprised to see a defensive back picked in the first round for the Patriots. Even though the team has used a great deal of resources at the position over the past few years (at least one defensive back in the first two rounds of the draft every year since 2006), the team still needs help in coverage. They allowed an 86.1 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, right around the middle of the league, but were torched for over eight yards per pass attempt.

The Patriots would certainly love to finally have a top-end cornerback in man coverage, which was an area of much need for the team in 2011.

No. 31: New England Patriots Select Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois

Matt says: "With a full summer to work out together before the 2012 season, Belichick can go back to his beloved 3-4 hybrid schemes. To make a move like this, the Patriots need pass-rushers. Whitney Mercilus led the NCAA in sacks during the 2011 season and has the athleticism and football IQ to become the next Willie McGinest in New England."

My slant: There are two big question marks for the Patriots headed into the 2012 season: 1) Will they go back to a 3-4, continue to run the 4-3 or run a mixed-front defense like they did in 2011?, and 2) What is the future for Andre Carter and Mark Anderson?

The first question may impact the second, but either way, the Patriots would be wise to take a pass-rusher early. If Carter even returns, he will likely be playing his last season in 2012. The Patriots rarely go after top-end pass-rushers in the draft, but Mercilus looks like a scheme versatile player that would be worth the pick.