Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2012: 1st-Round Busts to Avoid at All Costs

You can afford to screw up your first-round pick in fantasy baseball. It's never good idea, mind you, but there are more than enough talented ballplayers out there, and even more of them emerge throughout the course of the season.

This is a good thing, of course, as it's pretty easy to screw up your first-round pick in fantasy baseball. There are only so many locks every season, and it's not uncommon for a handful of first-rounders to fall flat in a given season.

For example, I recall taking Carlos Beltran first overall ahead of the 2005 season. That didn't pan out.

This year, there are five guys in particular who I'm wary of, and for good reason. They may not be complete busts in 2012, but the possibility is strong that that they will be a waste of a first-round pick.

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers gambled on Fielder by giving him a nine-year contract worth over $200 million.

There's no need for you to gamble on him as well. 

We know Fielder can hit, but there are too many variables in his coming over to the Tigers that make him a risky pick. The balls don't fly out of Comerica Park quite as well as they do at Miller Park, and the pitching in the American League is going to be completely different.

Fielder's not going to experience a huge drop-off, but it's by no means a given that he will duplicate his excellent numbers in 2011. Let somebody else gamble on him in the first round.

If Fielder is still around in the late second or third round, that's when you should take him.

4. Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees

Since August of 2010, Curtis Granderson has hit 55 home runs. That's insane.

It was never any secret that Granderson had power. His outburst over the last year-plus has been the result of consistent mechanics and the short porch at Yankee Stadium. He's got the perfect swing for that park.

However, you have to think Granderson is going to come back to earth. He bested his career high by 11 home runs in 2011. To set a new career high, he'd have to slug the ball at an even more impressive rate than he did last season.

Realistically, Granderson will get pitched differently, resulting in a slight slide. It's a good bet he'll slide back to 35 home runs, perhaps even 30.

Those are still great numbers, but they're not first-round numbers. There are a lot of outfielders who can hit 30 home runs, and a few of them will hit for a higher average than the Grandy Man. If his power regresses, he's really not all that great.

3. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

If he duplicates his numbers from last season, Justin Upton will be worth a late-first round pick. He'll do everything for you, but not to the extent that Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp will.

I view Upton as a regression candidate. His 2011 season was great, but it wasn't that much better than his 2009 season, after which we were all raving about him as a potential superstar.

In 2010, Upton responded by hitting .273 with just 17 homers, 69 RBI and 18 stolen bases. His OPS fell 100 points to .798.

Upton is more experienced now, but he's still an imperfect hitter. He strikes out a little too much, and he's nothing if not streaky.

Somebody in your league will overdraft Upton because of his upside. Because we've been down this road before and Upton didn't deliver, I recommend playing it safe.

2. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball. Hands down.

That doesn't mean he's going to be as good as he was in 2012 as he was in 2011, when he was unbelievably good.

Verlander is going to be a good fantasy starter in 2012, but it cannot be taken for granted that he's going to be the best. His performance is bound to level out, and there's bound to be some other pitcher who bursts onto the scene as baseball's most dominant starter.

Plus, let's not overlook the fact Verlander pitched over 270 innings last season. That's a ton, and it could have an effect on his performance in 2012.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

Yes, Albert Pujols is on this list. Your head will explode in 3...2...1...

Don't worry; Pujols is going to hit in 2012. I just doubt his ability to stand out from the rest of the first-base rabble.

Pujols is not the best hitting first baseman in the major leagues. Miguel Cabrera is, and his fantasy value is enhanced because he's going to have third base eligibility this season.

Pujols belongs in the same crowd as Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Fielder and even Michael Morse. All of them are going to hit for average, hit for power and drive in runs, and it's a toss-up as far as who is going to do so better than the rest.

The point is that Pujols is nothing special. He's also more of a risk than the other guys because of the time he's spent on the DL in the last couple of seasons.

Pujols will be one of the first players off the board, but you won't be missing out if you're able to nab Gonzo, Votto, Fielder or Morse. Even if Pujols outperforms them, it won't be by a significant margin.