Fantasy Football 2012: Where Should You Draft Tom Brady Next Year?

Tom Brady will be reunited in 2012 with old/new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the Pats in 2007, when Tom Brady had his best season and New England went 16-0 in the regular season.   

Brady is an elite NFL and fantasy quarterback. And while he failed to win his fourth Super Bowl this year, that does not have much bearing on his fantasy value.

However, the changing landscape at the QB position in fantasy football does have an impact.

Cam Newton burst onto the fantasy scene in his rookie campaign and finished the season T-3 in overall fantasy scoring with Brady (behind Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees). 

NFL expert Adam Schefter said on Twitter (February 1) that he’d take either Cam Newton or Arian Foster No. 1 overall in his fantasy draft. 

For fantasy football, I would put Newton in the elite tier of QBs behind Rodgers and Brees, and ahead of Brady.

Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford have also made cases to be included in the elite tier. Stafford had more impressive regular-season numbers, but Manning put up great numbers in the playoffs while leading the Giants to a Super Bowl victory.

If you have either of those two as your fantasy QB, that’s a plus for your roster.

In a recent mock draft article, I had Tom Brady going at No. 15 overall as the fourth QB chosen. I’m sticking to that. That’s the position where he becomes the most valuable selection available.

However, general consensus has his average draft position higher than that.

The most likely scenario is that Tom Brady will be the third or fourth QB chosen, going in the late first round or second round in a 10-team league.

There’s even a chance that Brady could be the second QB off the board behind Aaron Rodgers.  

Quarterbacks are the highest-scoring players in fantasy, and Tom Brady has been a top-five fantasy scorer each of the past two seasons. But having a top-four QB instead of a top-10 QB isn’t as valuable as having a multi-purpose running back or Calvin Johnson.

In a 10-team league, you’re practically guaranteed a top-10 QB, and you only start one.

And if you think a top QB is your ticket to the first place in fantasy football, you’d be wrong.

Of the 10 NFL players most common to the top-500 first-place teams in Yahoo public leagues, only two were QBs (Aaron Rodgers at No. 4 and Cam Newton at No. 7).

So, the reason to wait until 15 to take Brady is that I could get a top RB, Calvin Johnson or Rob Gronkowski with a first-round pick and still get a top-six QB in the late second round or early third round.

And if I can’t, there’s always the potential for a monster year from Michael Vick or a bounce-back season from former top-five QB Philip Rivers.

Ultimately, where Tom Brady is taken in any fantasy draft will be influenced by the first five picks. If Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are gone in the first five picks (as quite a few projections have suggested), then Brady and Cam Newton may be snatched earlier than I predicted in my mock draft. 

My advice: Take Brady as the fourth QB in the second round of a 10-team league if he’s available.