Cincinnati Reds: More Than a Dark Horse?

The Reds have made some positive off-season moves that have put them in a postion to compete not only this season but for years to come. 

A team that nearly two thirds of the way through last season had the best record in baseball. 

If you don't count the 8th and 9th innings. 

Of course, those innings count mightily.  Journeyman David Weathers served as the team's closer last year and did an adequate job, but much of the problem was getting to him.  A collection of unproven youngsters and past-prime veterans made the 7th and 8th innings "interesting", to put it nicely.

GM Wayne Krivsky had to go to work. 

Adam Dunn's option was picked up shortly after season's end, followed by the addition of veteran manager Dusty Baker.  In late December, Josh Hamilton was dealt to the Rangers for highly touted pitching prospect Edinson Volquez.  Then, came a huge deal for Reds fans; the signing of a true closer, Francisco Cordero, locking him up for 4 years. 

They later added Jeremy Affeldt, a pitcher who can possibly add a lefty to the starting staff or a steady arm in the pen.  Of all the activty, this week may have been the most important of the off-season.  One of the best overall second baseman in all of baseball, Brandon Phillips, was locked up through 2011 with an option for 2012.  With most of the starting rotation still up in the air a need for another solid starter still lingered.  Krivsky, not willing to let go of top prospects, passed on Oakland's Joe Blanton (for now) and went out and acquired free agent Josh Fogg.  

Will it be enough?

There are many unknowns left in Cincinnati.  Who's hitting leadoff, who's playing center, short, first?  The only thing anyone is truly confident about for opening day is Aaron

Harang will be the starting pitcher and Brandon Phillips will be in the lineup. 

Jay Bruce may be the most talented outfielder not yet in the majors, but will he make the opening day roster and will he produce?  If not, Norris Hopper hit .329 last season and could start in center field if he holds off Ryan Freel and Bruce for the job.  Joey Votto showed signs he's ready for the bigs at the end of last season but veteran Scott Hatteberg is still in the mix and still lines the ball all over the park.  Will Edwin Encarnacion play miserably, like he did at the beginning of last year or incredibly, like he did at the end of last year?  Does Jeff Keppinger make the lineup?  He may not really fit in behind shortstop Alex Gonzalez, but made contact seemingly always when given steady playing time last year.  

The most dangerous part of the Reds lineup has been the corner outfielders Dunn and Griffey.  The two combined for 70 homers and 199 RBI's last season, a huge upside.  They also struck out 264 times.  

Then the pitching staff:

Harang is a stud, period.

Arroyo, the team's number 2, is probably a number 3 on 20 other teams.  The other 3 starting spots will be a battle between 6 or more others:  Fogg, Affeldt, Matt Belisle, and young prospects Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Volquez.  If Fogg can perfrom adequately and one or more of the young guys prove they can pitch at the major league level then the Reds pitching staff may be able to compete in the less than stellar NL Central.

The Reds are loaded with young talent, a great thing; but that doesn't translate to wins this season.  It doesn't mean the opposite either.  Much of this season will depend on whether the young talent produces as hoped. 

There is good reason to be optimistic, but a lot of things have to come together for the club to make a run at a pennant.

Dusty Baker definitely has his work cut out for him.