Why Chicago Bulls Fans Need to Stop Worrying over the Fate of the Team

If you listen to some people, the Chicago Bulls are destined for another winning season only to end in despair in spite of the fact they hold the Eastern Conference's best record.

They point to recent losses to the Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers and wonder whether the Bulls can win a series against such teams with the team as it's constructed. The problem is that this ignores the team as it's constructed. 

Those losses did not come to the team as it's constructed. They came with the team incomplete, missing key players. Now I know about the specious argument that talking about injuries is just making excuses, but that's just wrong. It's flat-out, purposefully wrong to suggest that injuries don't matter and that it's "homerism" to make such "excuses." 

Just ask the Indianapolis Colts if injuries matter. Of course injuries matter. Games are played by players. To argue that injuries don't matter is to argue that who is playing doesn't matter. So then what matters? The uniform you're wearing? The irony is that the real "homerism" argument is the "excuse" that "injuries don't matter." 

There will be those that say that every team deals with injuries, and they do. However, they don't all have equal numbers of injuries. In the table below are the top teams in the league and the number of games they've missed due to injury.

Teams are listed in order of winning percentage. These are the four teams who have a winning percentage over .700 and the number of games lost by both starters and key reserves due to injury. I am identifying a key reserve as a player who averages at least 15 minutes per game. 

Games Lost Due To Injury
Team	Starters	Key Reserves	Total Games Lost
Chicago	27	24	51
Miami	11	12	23
Philadelphia	11	9	20
Oklahoma City	5	14	19

*EricMaynor has been lost for the season due to injury. Rookie Reggie Jackson has actually put up slightly better numbers (9.9 PER to 9.4) in his place. 

As you can see, the Bulls have lost as many games due to injury to starters as the Heat, the 76ers and the Thunder combined. That makes it a pretty fair statement that the Bulls are not experiencing "just like everyone else" unless of course you mean everyone else combined. 

Nor can you arbitrarily dismiss the importance of the individual injuries. The three primary players who have lost games due to injury are Derrick Rose, the reigning MVP of the league, Luol Deng, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, and Richard Hamilton, the player acquired to fill up the weaknesses which cost the Bulls the Eastern Conference Finals. 

When you're looking at these injuries there are two aspects that need to be considered: the aggregate effect and the individual effect. 

The aggregate affect is the compounded effect of missing players due to injuries. The Bulls won their first five games without Hamilton but that effect multiplies over time. The Bulls have missed about 1,211 minutes of playing time due to injuries. 

There have been 308 total minutes played by end-of-the-bench players, Brian Scalabrine and John Lucas III, as well as Mike James. If we conservatively say that about 30 minutes (10 percent) of that is due to "victory cigars" that leaves roughly 278 minutes that end of the bench players have played. 

That means there are 933 minutes filled in by the other key rotation players. That's an average of 117 extra minutes played by each of the rotation players, or about four to five extra games worth of minutes each has individually played. 

When you're talking about the densest January of any team in the history of the NBA, with the most road games of any team this year, that's a fatigue factor that adds up. Fewer players play the same number of wins. Those games are coming on the road. 

The Bulls have played the most games, 26, and the most road games, 16, in the NBA this year. They also have the most back-to-backs (10) already played and that's counting their back-to-back-to-back as only one. 

The Bulls already have 10 players with more than 300 minutes played this season. The Thunder, Heat and 76ers have eight. 

The Bulls don't have fresh legs to come off the bench. The insane schedule, combined with the injuries depleting their rotation, combined with the quality of the opponents all factor into those three losses. 

When you look at the specific injuries, particularly those to Richard Hamilton and Luol Deng, you see the specific effects too. Combined they average 30.4 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. Obviously, that's an impact. 

To argue that impact has no effect on the games is an obtuse argument. Of course it has an effect on the game, and it's direct as well as indirect. It's offensive as well as defensive. 

The Bulls average 101 points when Rip Hamilton plays, compared to 94 when he doesn't. That's a difference of seven points.  

The Bulls give up 95 points when Luol Deng doesn't play compared to 85 when he does. That's a difference of 10 points. 

Does that mean that if they're both in then it's a combined difference of 17 points per game? Of course not because both players have played some games together. At the same time it sure does't mean "nothing" either. 

It can't be ignored the Bulls are a much better offensive team when Hamilton is in the lineup. They are a much better defensive team when Deng is in the lineup. 

These are realities and legitimate factors that need to be taken into consideration when looking at the team going forward. 

Furthermore, there's another reason that the Bulls aren't making excuses (or that I'm not making excuses for them). They have the best record in the Eastern Conference. They don't need to be excused. 

They have either the second- or third-most efficient offense in the NBA (depending on whether you use basketball-reference's offensive rating or ESPN's offensive efficiency) and the third-most efficient defense in the NBA in spite of all those injuries. 

When you're looking at the Bulls and what they've done this season it's not "taking away" from anything the Heat, Sixers or Pacers have done to acknowledge this. No one is suggesting putting asterisks next the numbers in the win column. They fairly won those games, but they didn't win those games against the Bulls roster as constructed.

When you're looking at the Bulls going forward, which is what you should be looking at when you're talking about potential trades or the Bulls prospects in the postseason, you have to consider the roster as constructed. 

When the Bulls finish their current road trip they will have already played almost two-thirds of their road schedule before the All-Star break. The Heat so far have played 11 road games and 12 home games. The Sixers have played 9 road games and 15 home games. 

The thing is that from there on out things even out in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls will have a lighter schedule with more home games. The Heat and Sixers will have more road games and more games period. 

Things get easier for Chicago, particularly as they get healthy. Things get harder for the other guys. 

More importantly though, as time goes by, the Bulls also will start getting healthy. We'll actually see what happens when they are playing together as constructed. Then we'll be able to judge the team based on what they'll like in the postseason, better rested and healthy. 

Until then, step away from the panic button. The Bulls are doing just fine, and things are going to get even better. 

Follow @KellyScaletta