AL East: Red Sox or Yankees?

The Red Sox put an end to the Yankees' nine straight division titles in 2007, and went on to win the World Series.

Again, it appears that the Yankees and the Red Sox will be the two teams competing for the title of the American League East.

Some may argue that the Blue Jays deserve recognition, but their offense is not good enough to win the division title.

Boston and New York each have similar teams. Both teams primarily revolve around offense, and are trying to build up their inconsistent pitching.

Both Boston and New York are projected to have almost identical lineups to those from last year, except the Red Sox have will Jacoby Ellsbury leading off and playing center field instead of Coco Crisp, and the Yankees will most likely have Shelly Duncan at first base. 

Everyone who knows baseball knows how dangerous either of these lineups are. The Yankees have Robinson Cano batting in the bottom third of their lineup, and the Red Sox have what is arguably the best one through four spots in the majors.

Catcher

Jason Varitek will be celebrating his 36th birthday during the first match-up between the Yankees and the Red Sox on April 11th. Varitek is coming off of a disappointing batting season, while Jorge Posada (also thirty six years old) is coming off a career season in 2007. Jorge has consistently logged more games per year over his career than Varitek. Neither are spectacular defensively.

Edge: Yankees

First Base

Shelly Duncan might hit for a little more power than Kevin Youkilis, but Youkilis hits for a much higher average and is superb on defense. 

Edge: Red Sox

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano can each be expected to hit for averages above .300, but Cano is definitely a more powerful slugger than Pedroia. Cano hit 19 home runs and drove in 97 runs in 2007, while Pedroia only knocked eight balls out of the park and batted 50 runners in. Although Cano made 13 errors, he did so in 22 more games than Pedroia committed his six errors in. 

Edge: Yankees

Third Base

Although it is not necessary for me to waste my time to explain why Alex Rodriguez is better than Mike Lowell, I will in a few sentences.

A-Rod hits for power and average no matter what stadium he is playing in.

Lowell benefits from the Green Monster, and would not be as successful of a hitter if his long fly balls could be caught instead of bolting into the Green Monster. Both are similar fielders.

Edge: Yankees

Shortstop

Surprisingly, Derek Jeter and Julio Lugo put up similar numbers. However, Jeter's batting average and on-base percentage are each almost 100 points higher than Lugo's. Jeter is of course the Yankees captain, and is a key to the success of the Yankees.  

Edge: Yankees

Left Field

Manny Ramirez had his worst hitting season since 1994. He only hit 20 home runs and drove in 88 runs. Hideki Matsui hit for a career-low .285, but hit 25 homers and knocked in 103 runs. The lackadaisical fielding of Manny Ramirez, and the weak arm of Matsui leave neither team with a clear edge on defense. It has to be assumed that Manny will bounce back and have a better offensive season than Matsui.

Edge: Red Sox

Center Field

Here is where things get tricky.

Everyone knows the impact that Jacoby Ellsbury had on the Red Sox at the end of last season. He came up from the minors near the end of August and batted .353. His defense was marvelous, and he sparked the Red Sox to hold onto their dissipating lead over the Yankees. However, he only had 116 at-bats over 33 games.

Melky Cabrera's stats are directly proportional to his playing time. The more he plays, the higher his average is, the more hits he gets, the more runs he drives in. Melky has been very consistent while seeing consistent playing time. I want to think that Ellsbury will keep up his amazing play, but I don't know how likely it is. I do know that Cabrera is consistent, so I have to say that neither team has an edge in Center Field.

Edge: even

Right Field

J.D. Drew was awful in his debut year in Beantown.

Bobby Abreu got off to a rough start, but batted over .300 as the Yankees started winning in July.

Abreu has a rocket for an arm in right field, and Drew does not. Overall, Abreu is a better hitter than Drew.

Edge: Yankees

Designated Hitter

Johnny Damon and/or Jason Giambi vs. David Ortiz?

Giambi is garbage. His stats don't even deserve to be put into this article. Damon certainly turned his season around in July, but neither Damon nor Giambi are a match for Big Papi.

Edge: Red Sox

Starting Rotation

No matter what people say, I don't think either of these rotations are too great.

Both teams have a solid ace in Wang and Beckett. There is no question that these two aces are fantastic. 

The Yankees have Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina.

Pettitte has spent his offseason being bothered by baseball and reporters about his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs. It is hard to tell how much of an affect this will have on his pitching, but it will certainly follow Pettitte around throughout the course of the season. Mussina had a marvelous season in 2006, but was so bad in 2007 that he lost his starting job towards the end of the season. 

The Red Sox also have problems of their own with old pitchers. Curt Schilling is injured, but Boston is not letting him have surgery that will cause him to miss time.

If Schilling is unable to play, it is likely that Clay Buchholz will take over. Buchholz looked good last year, and it is surprising that the Red Sox are not putting him in the rotation to start the year.

Tim Wakefield's knuckleball is reliable most of the time, but he still had a WHIP of around 1.33 and an ERA of 4.76 in 2007. 

New York has prized prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy starting the year as the four and five starters.

Hughes was inconsistent last year, but when he was on he was superb.

Kennedy appeared to be fantastic in his few starts in 2007.

It can be assumed that Hughes and Kennedy will take some time adjusting to the big leagues, but it is clear that they each have the stuff that it takes to be a good starter.

Daisuke Matsuzaka did not completely live up to the hype that he brought over from Japan. Matsuzaka had an ERA of 4.40 last year, and gave up 25 home runs.

Yet, he did strike out 201 batters.

Towards the end of the season, Daisuke was clearly suffering from fatigue. Boston can only hope that they can preserve his arm so he is fresh the whole season. 

Jon Lester is Boston's fifth starter. Lester has had control issues, and gives up lots of hits, but most teams don't ask for much more than Lester's 4.68 ERA in 26 career starts. 

Edge: The Red Sox have a slight advantage in starting pitching, but if Hughes and Kennedy can step it up for the Yanks, the advantage will be evened out.

Bullpen

The Yankees and Red Sox each have similar bullpens as well.

The middle relievers are practically the same.

Joba Chamberlain is a better setup man than Hideki Okajima. Papelbon has been magnificent, but once Mariano Rivera found his rhythm, he was almost as reliable as Papelbon.

Sure, Papelbon is younger, and therefore more dependable for 2008. 

With Papelbon closing out games for Boston, teams cannot go into the 9th inning losing.

However, the rest of Boston's bullpen is not superb. 

Edge: even 

This year may come down to the wire much like 2007, but look for the Yankees to pull a surprise in the East if their young pitchers can come through for them. Otherwise, Boston should finish as the American League East Champions.