Super Bowl XLVI: 4 Keys for New York Giants, Plus the AtS Pick

Four years ago, the New York Giants won Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Ariz., thus denying the New England Patriots a chance to become the first NFL team to ever finish a season 19-0.

On Sunday, the Giants will again face the Patriots, this time looking to make a little history of their own. With a win, the Giants would become the first team to ever finish a season with a 9-7 record and then win the Super Bowl.

The only other 9-7 teams to reach the Super Bowl—the 1979 Los Angeles Rams and the 2008 Arizona Cardinals—lost the big game at the end.

The teams met in Week 9 this season with the Giants winning in Foxborough 24-20 on Nov. 6 when Eli Manning hit tight end Jake Ballard with a one-yard touchdown pass with 15 seconds remaining. That loss snapped a 20-game winning streak at Gillette Stadium for the Patriots.

The November meeting started slowly from an offensive standpoint; the game was scoreless at halftime. Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady was 28-for-49 for 342 yards and two touchdowns but was also intercepted twice and sacked twice.

As was the case for much of the season, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski were Brady’s favorite targets. Welker had nine catches for 136 yards and Gronkowski finished with eight receptions, 101 yards and a touchdown.

For the Giants, Eli Manning was 20-for-39 for 250 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Victor Cruz caught six balls for 91 yards and Brandon Jacobs ran for 72 yards on 18 attempts and scored a touchdown. Jacobs got the bulk of the carries as Ahmad Bradshaw missed the November meeting with New England because of a foot injury.

What follows are the four keys for the Giants to be able to secure the franchise’s fourth Super Bowl title, as well as my against-the-spread pick for Super Bowl XLVI.

Don’t Get Caught in the Hype

Both conference championships should have gone to overtime. The NFC title game was the only one that did, but both teams had to battle to get to Indianapolis.

This will be the second Super Bowl appearance for coach Tom Coughlin and quarterback Eli Manning and the Giants come in with five straight wins in games that would have eliminated them from playoff contention.

New York is peaking at the right time and, because of the team’s veteran core, it is unlikely the Giants will be blinded by the bright lights and distractions of Super Bowl week.

Pressure Tom Brady

This is the point most often cited by analysts this week. Can the Giants’ dominant pass rush take over the game and squelch New England’s great passing game? The Patriots have a pair of Pro Bowlers in the interior line in guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters.

Tom Brady moves well within the pocket, delivers the ball quickly and has a knack for anticipating the pass rush. But Brady’s Kryptonite is the rush up the middle.

The Giants won’t blitz a lot because of their explosive front four which will be aided by the fast track in Lucas Oil Stadium. New York has good defensive tackles but the ends are special and could be the difference in the game.

The Patriots play two tight end sets more than any team in football but could be limited depending on the status of Rob Gronkowski’s ankle. But if New England gets pass-happy, it plays into the Giants’ Four Aces package that features four defensive ends on the line.

The Patriots did use extra offensive lineman often in the teams’ Week 9 matchup and it is a tactic they could employ again on Sunday.

Don’t Forget the Run

Tom Coughlin teams are renowned for their offensive balance and even as the running game struggled for much of the regular season, the Giants continued to go to it.

It can be tempting to throw often but don’t look for New York to fall into that pattern unless they fall behind big early.

The Patriots’ interior line, led by Vince Wilfork, has been very good lately and running up the middle has become a daunting prospect against New England. The Patriots did a good job keeping Ray Rice contained in the AFC title game.

Ahmad Bradshaw is a big key for the New York offense. He runs with conviction and is a versatile player who can run inside the tackles or break the carry outside and is good in pass protection and at catching the ball out of the backfield. He did not play in the November game at Foxborough.

Slow the Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez might be the best tight-end tandem the NFL has ever seen. Gronkowski is the whole package, when healthy, as a two-way tight end that can block, run solid routes, has great hands and is an absolute beast because of his size and quickness in the red zone.

Hernandez can line up all over the place, including out of the backfield, and is also a tremendous receiver.

New York allowed two big plays for touchdowns to Vernon Davis in the NFC Championship and tight ends enjoyed very productive games against the Giants during the regular season. Big Blue often rolls out the Big Nickel package, even on early downs, with two corners and three safeties. Linebacker Michael Boley is also very good in second-level coverage.

But the Gronkowski-Hernandez pairing has been a nightmare for every defense the Patriots have faced.

However, Gronkowski’s ankle injury—suffered in the AFC Championship against the Ravens—has been the story of Super Bowl week and bears watching come Super Sunday.

The Pick

Ultimately, this pick comes down to one factor for me: The Giants’ stable of wide receiver weapons against the Patriots’ more-than-suspect secondary. New York will be able to move the ball against New England and the Giants also have the edge when comparing the defensive units. So …. Giants (+3) over Patriots.