NFL Rookie of the Year Predictions: Why the 49ers' Aldon Smith Will Win DROY

It was clear by the halfway point of the 2011 NFL season that the Defensive Rookie of the Year award would go to either Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller or San Francisco 49ers defensive end/outside linebacker Aldon Smith, but it appeared that Miller was the heavy favorite.

However, now that the season has come to a close, it looks to be Smith and not Miller who will win the award in the NFL Honors award ceremony on Saturday night.

At first glance, it looks like Miller would be a lock for the honor. He has 64 total tackles to his name—51 of them solo—and 11.5 sacks to Smith's 37 total and 31 solo tackles and 14 sacks.

However, Miller played a total of 823 snaps through Week 15, while Smith had just 446. Miller's snaps were almost evenly split between run defense and pass-rush while Smith was a dedicated pass-rusher, not needed when defending the run.

That makes Smith's numbers all the more impressive. He also managed three more sacks than Miller though he spent nearly half the amount of time on the field.

While Miller was drafted to be a well-rounded linebacker, Smith is a specialist, and he's excelled at his duties in ways that Miller hasn't. That doesn't serve to discount Miller's incredible rookie season, but snap-for-snap, game-for-game, it's Smith who has had the overall more successful year.

Furthermore, Miller's production dropped off at the end of the regular season, while Smith stayed hot. In the final four games, Miller had just six tackles (five solo) and one sack, and Smith had 14 tackles (12 solo) and 4.5 sacks.

Smith's ability to finish strong gives him a leg up over Miller, considering voters are more likely to remember the last thing a player did rather than how well he performed in the first four or five weeks.

Strength of opponent in those games doesn't even come into play; the Broncos had just one venerable offensive foe in that time, the New England Patriots, as did the 49ers, when they faced the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15.

Both players have had exceptional rookie seasons, and either one of them deserves to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. However, in breaking down the numbers and comparing the two players head-to-head, it's Smith who I believe edges out Miller for the award.