RG3 Has a 40 Percent Chance of Being the Redskins' Franchise Quarterback

When college quarterbacks Matt Barkley and Landry Jones decided to stay in school, the Washington Redskins’ hopes of drafting their next franchise QB plummeted. It’s almost a guarantee that Andrew Luck will be the first overall pick, leaving many to think that Robert Griffin III is the only other franchise quarterback in the draft.

Scouts are having a hard time evaluating RG3. Although his SportsCenter highlights will have you believe he’s just a running quarterback, his throwing statistics would leave anyone wide-eyed.

But can he succeed at the next level?

As NFL.com’s Albert Breer was able to speak to some scouts who gave him mixed signals. In a tweet Breer stated the following:

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“One thing I know now after tapping into scouting community for some draft research: Assessments on Robert Griffin are all over the map.”

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Let’s get the obvious out of the way—it’s difficult to draft your next franchise quarterback in today’s NFL. Many teams are tasked to do this every year, and many fail at it for the simple fact that the college game is drastically different than the NFL.

You never know what you’ll get from your quarterback until you sit him down in film sessions, practices and eventually see him on gameday.

When you look at quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round from 2001-09 (I exclude the latest ones since we don’t know what they’re fully capable of yet), I’d argue that only 10 have become franchise quarterbacks while 15 have not.

First-Round QBs, 2001-09
*Franchise QBs marked in italic.
2001		2003		2005	2007	2009
Michael Vick		Carson Palmer		Alex Smith	Jamarcus Russell	Matthew Stafford
		Byron Leftwich		Aaron Rodgers	Brady Quinn	Mark Sanchez
		Kyle Boller		Jason Campbell		Josh Freeman
		Rex Grossman
2002		2004		2006	2008
David Carr		Eli Manning		Vince Young	Matt Ryan
Joey Harrington		Phillip Rivers		Matt Leinart	Joe Flacco
Patrick Ramsey		Ben Roethlisberger		Jay Cutler
		J.P.Losman

You have about a 40 percent chance at drafting your franchise quarterback in the first round.  Keep in mind that hindsight is 20/20, and at the time all these quarterbacks were drafted their teams felt they were the future for one reason or another.

So how confident are you that RG3 is in that 40 percent?

It should be noted that RG3 may not even be available for the Redskins, a team that everyone not living under a rock knows needs a new signal caller.

With the sixth overall pick, the 'Skins will see if the Cleveland Browns, who pick at the fourth spot, will stick with Colt McCoy or draft the talented RG3.

Also, don’t count out teams like the Seattle Seahawks or Miami Dolphins who could trade up for the Heisman Trophy winner.

If the Redskins want to make a similar move, they’d have to trade away multiple picks to do so. According to the traditional draft value chart, the Minnesota Vikings’ third pick is worth 2,200 points and the 'Skins’ pick is worth 1,600. Which obviously means the Skins would have to give up their first- and second-round draft selections to potentially draft RG3.

Also keep in mind that aging veterans aren’t worth much when it comes to draft-day trades.  Nobody wants your aging Santana Moss or injury-riddled Chris Cooley on draft day.

So there lies the question—are you so confident that RG3 is the next franchise quarterback that you’re willing to give up two high draft picks to grab him? Or are you better off drafting for other needs, like defensive back and receiver, in hopes to grab a franchise quarterback next year?

Either decision is risky. Much-like predicting the weather, we all have the information in front of us, but it doesn’t mean everything will pan-out like we think.

If the recent past says anything, a team has a 40 percent chance that RG3 is their future.