NBA Draft: Best 1st-Round Pick of the Last Decade for Each Team
Who are the best first-round picks of the last decade for each and every team in the NBA?
The draft is only one of the three ways a franchise can turn its fortunes around, the other two being player development and trading. That said, it's undoubtedly an important way to achieve success in the league.
As you'll soon see, I developed an objective way of looking at draft picks based on historical data a while back now and this is the latest application of that development.
Read on to discover how that was done and who the best picks were.
On each slide, you'll find the following information: when the player was selected, the expected four-year Win Shares of the player, the actual four-year Win Shares of the player, the Difference between those two numbers and where the pick ranked amongst all picks made in the last decade by all teams. If you don't understand why any of those pieces of info are included, make sure to read the very next slide.
The Calculations
1 of 31First of all, what exactly can teams count on when they make a draft pick? Well, unless a team releases or trades a player, they are under the team's control after the draft for up to four years, the maximum length of a rookie contract. So really, when looking at draft steals, we should focus almost exclusively on the first four years of a player's career.
As a result, I looked at the first four years of Win Shares data for a player, as provided by basketball-reference.com. Win Shares are an advanced basketball metric calculated so that one Win Share is exactly equal to one win provided by that player to his team's cause. It's the combination of Offensive Win Shares and Defensive Win Shares, a full breakdown of which can be found on this page, called "Calculating Win Shares."
Starting with the year 1990, when the NBA Draft first introduced the current lottery system, I looked at each and every single player drafted into The Association, tracking their draft position and the amount of Win Shares they produced in their first four seasons in the league. It is important to note that I only evaluated data through the 2007 draft because the players taken in 2008-2011 have not yet played out their first four seasons in the league.
Because of that, I've included the players drafted from 2008-2011 that have the potential to become even better picks than the ones listed here in the "Potential to Surpass (insert name here)" section at the bottom of each slide.
After I had data for all 1,028 players drafted from 1990-2007, I took the average number of Four-Year Win Shares for each draft position and plotted them on a scatterplot (which you can see in the embedded picture with draft position along the x-axis and Four-Year Win Shares along the y-axis).
Using a best-fit logistical regression, I found the following formula: Four-Year Win Shares = -5.836* ln (draft position) +24.537.
For the statistically inclined out there, that equation has a coefficient of determination (r^2) of 0.91024. For the non-statistically inclined, the equation fits extremely well.
Using this formula, we can plug in a number for draft position and have the formula show how many Four-Year Win Shares a player drafted there should be expected to produce. For example, the first overall pick of a draft should produce 24.537 Win Shares while the 30th overall pick should produce 4.688.
With that data firmly established, we can tell exactly how much players have exceeded or failed to live up to the expectations associated with the slot in which they were drafted. That can be done by subtracting the expected win shares based on the draft position from the actual number of Four-Year Win Shares that players produced. If the difference is positive, the player exceeded expectations by that much and was a bit of a steal. If the difference is negative, the player failed to live up to the expectations and was a bit of a bust.
Let's use Monta Ellis as an example
Ellis was drafted 40th overall, so he should have been expected to produce 3.08 Four-Year Win Shares. The shooting guard actually produced 13.7 over the first four years of his career, meaning that the Golden State Warriors "stole" 10.69 Four-Year Win Shares when they drafted him. This was still a great pick, there's no denying that. It's just not quite as great as quite a few players drafted ahead of him.
It's important to realize exactly what we're looking at. As some of you may have realized, even No. 1 picks may be considered great picks.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Randy Foye
2 of 31Selected: No. 7 in 2006
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 13.2
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 8.6
Difference: -4.6
Decade Rank: 289
Two words: David Kahn.
With the exception of Craig Smith, who the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted at No. 36 in 2006, not a single pick has worked out during the eligible drafts.
Potential to Surpass Foye: Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Derrick Williams
Los Angeles Clippers: Chris Kaman
3 of 31Selected: No. 6 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 14.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 11.1
Difference: -3.0
Decade Rank: 237
The Los Angeles Clippers draft history over the last decade has been rather pathetic. According to my formula, the best picks of the decade for the team have been Guillermo Diaz and Jared Jordan. Because Diaz accumulated no Win Shares in his six-game career and Jordan never made it into the NBA, they had the Difference closest to zero.
Kaman came in third but he was the top-ranked first-round pick.
Potential to Surpass Kaman: Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Blake Griffin
Washington Wizards: Nick Young
4 of 31Selected: No. 16 in 2007
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 8.4
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 5.7
Difference: -2.7
Decade Rank: 228
Nick Young may be emerging now, but he didn't really make a significant mark for the Washington Wizards until his third season in the NBA, when he broke out by averaging 17.4 points per game.
None of Washington's draft picks have been very good though. The only positive Differences belong to Andray Blatche, Steve Blake and Dominic McGuire, all of whom were selected in the second-round.
Potential to Surpass Young: JaVale McGee, John Wall, Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton
Milwaukee Bucks: T.J. Ford
5 of 31Selected: No. 8 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 12.4
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 10.8
Difference: -1.6
Decade Rank: 176
Even though the selection of T.J. Ford gives the impression that the Milwaukee Bucks have been terrible at drafting quality players, that really isn't the case.
Ford is just the seventh-best pick of the last 10 years for Milwaukee, but the six ahead of him were all selected in the second-round of their respective drafts.
The point guard featured here has always been a fairly solid player, but he's never been a standout player like the Bucks expected when they selected him at No. 8 in 2003.
Potential to Surpass Ford: Brandon Jennings, Larry Sanders, Tobias Harris
San Antonio Spurs: Beno Udrih
6 of 31Selected: No. 28 in 2004
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 5.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 7.8
Difference: 2.7
Decade Rank: 94
The San Antonio Spurs, somewhat surprisingly, really haven't made too many great draft picks in the last decade. Remember that Manu Ginobili was drafted more than 10 years ago.
Other than the second-round theft of Luis Scola, Beno Udrih's selection was the best move of the last 10 years for this model franchise. They've just chosen to build their team in other ways.
Potential to Surpass Udrih: George Hill
Los Angeles Lakers: Andrew Bynum
7 of 31Selected: No. 10 in 2005
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 11.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 14.6
Difference: 3.5
Decade Rank: 83
Marc Gasol, Luke Walton and Ronny Turiaf were all better picks, but they were selected in the second-round.
As a result, Andrew Bynum takes the title position here after narrowly edging out Brian Cook. I think it's safe to say that he would have been considered an even better pick if he wasn't so fragile.
Potential to Surpass Bynum: None
New Jersey Nets: Nenad Krstic
8 of 31Selected: No. 24 in 2002
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 6.0
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 11.6
Difference: 5.6
Decade Rank: 72
One of the reasons that the New Jersey Nets haven't been very good over the last decade is that they haven't found any true impact players during the drafts.
Nenad Krstic is the best pick of the last 10 years and he really wasn't a very impressive one. Taken at No. 24 in 2002, his best season came in his third year when he averaged 16.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
Potential to Surpass Krstic: MarShon Brooks, Brook Lopez
Memphis Grizzlies: Kyle Lowry
9 of 31Selected: No. 24 in 2006
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 6.0
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 11.9
Difference: 5.9
Decade Rank: 69
While Hakim Warrick was a good pick, Kyle Lowry was a marginally better selection for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Lowry spent the first two-and-a-half seasons of his career with the Grizz before he was traded to the Houston Rockets in a three-team swap. Prior to his breakout this year, Lowry was a solid but unspectacular player who put up numbers on a consistent basis.
Potential to Surpass Lowry: Hasheem Thabeet (kidding)
Golden State Warriors: Andris Biedrins
10 of 31Selected: No. 11 in 2004
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 10.5
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 18.8
Difference: 8.3
Decade Rank: 51
The Golden State Warriors have only made two selections on draft day that have resulted in a positive Difference.
Those two players are Monta Ellis, who has a Difference of 10.7, and Andris Biedrins, who has a Difference of 8.3. But because Ellis was selected in the second round, he isn't eligible for this list.
Potential to Surpass Biedrins: Stephen Curry
Denver Nuggets: Carmelo Anthony
11 of 31Selected: No. 3 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 18.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 27.7
Difference: 9.6
Decade Rank: 43
While Linas Kleiza was a pretty decent pick, he still can't match up to the selection of Carmelo Anthony after his championship-winning freshman year at Syracuse.
Melo made an immediate impact an quickly became one of the best scorers in the entire NBA.
Potential to Surpass Anthony: None
Charlotte Bobcats: Jared Dudley
12 of 31Selected: No. 22 in 2007
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 6.5
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 16.6
Difference: 10.1
Decade Rank: 37
Only two picks that the Charlotte Bobcats have made in the past decade have objectively avoided the dreaded "bust" label: Jared Dudley and Ryan Hollins.
Because Hollins was drafted at No. 50 in 2006, this spot automatically goes to Mr. Dudley.
Potential to Surpass Dudley: Kemba Walker
Utah Jazz: Deron Williams
13 of 31Selected: No. 3 in 2005
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 18.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 29.7
Difference: 11.6
Decade Rank: 29
Deron Williams didn't take much time to excel in the NBA. He averaged 13.5 points, 3.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game as a rookie. Then he kept improving until his fourth season, when he put up 19 points and 10.1 assists per game.
Paul Milsap was a much better pick but he was drafted in the second round. As for the other first-rounders, only Ronnie Brewer really comes close.
Potential to Surpass Williams: None
Phoenix Suns: Amar'e Stoudemire
14 of 31Selected: No. 9 in 2002
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 11.7
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 25.3
Difference: 13.6
Decade Rank: 24
Amar'e Stoudemire was an immediate contributor as a rookie, averaging 13.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game during his first season at the professional level, even though he couldn't even legally consume alcohol at the time.
Perhaps the most impressive part about Stoudemire's inclusion on this list though is the fact that he played in just three games during his fourth season, amassing only 0.1 Win Shares that year. Essentially, he earned this lofty spot with only three years of play.
Leandro Barbosa comes close to displacing the big man, but he definitely doesn't.
Potential to Surpass Stoudemire: Markieff Morris
Orlando Magic: Dwight Howard
15 of 31Selected: No. 1 in 2004
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 24.5
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 38.5
Difference: 14.0
Decade Rank: 23
It may seem weird to see a No. 1 overall pick listed as having the highest Difference in a team's drafting history, but that's just how good Dwight Howard has been for the Orlando Magic.
D-12 averaged 12 points and 10 rebounds per game as a rookie and kept improving in both categories until he put up 20.7 points and a league-leading 14.2 rebounds per contest as a fourth-year player. Plus, there's his immense impact on the defensive end of the court.
Marcin Gortat came close to equaling Howard's performance based on draft spot, but he was a second-round pick.
Potential to Surpass Howard: None
Houston Rockets: Yao Ming
16 of 31Selected: No. 1 in 2002
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 24.5
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 39.4
Difference: 14.9
Decade Rank: 22
Yao Ming is another No. 1 pick who played well enough during his first four years in the league that he still managed to become a big draft steal.
Ming was absolutely incredible as a rookie, averaging a stellar 13.5 points and 8.2 rebounds while playing well on the defensive end of the court, but he still managed to improve quite a bit before he entered his second year in The Association.
Carl Landry was actually an even better pick, but he was selected in the second round.
Potential to Surpass Ming: Nicolas Batum
Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford
17 of 31Selected: No. 3 in 2007
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 18.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 33.2
Difference: 15.1
Decade Rank: 21
While the selections of Josh Smith and Josh Childress were both overwhelmingly positive, neither of them can come close to matching the No. 3 pick in the 2007 NBA draft.
Al Horford had just finished a stellar career at Florida and made an immediate impact during his rookie season, starting 77 games and falling just 0.3 rebounds per game short of averaging a double-double for the season.
Now an All-Star, the power forward steadily improved during each of his first four seasons in the league.
Potential to Surpass Horford: None
Chicago Bulls: Kirk Hinrich
18 of 31Selected: No. 7 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 13.2
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 29.0
Difference: 15.8
Decade Rank: 19
Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon (second-round pick), Luol Deng and Joakim Noah have all proven to be tremendous steals, but Hinrich narrowly edges the other three out as the Chicago Bulls' best draft pick of the last decade.
The former Kansas Jayhawk point guard came out blazing as a rookie and didn't stop until he became the Bulls' all-time three-point shooter. Averaging 12 points and 6.8 assists per game as a rookie is a great way to find yourself on this list.
Potential to Surpass Hinrich: Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson
Toronto Raptors: Chris Bosh
19 of 31Selected: No. 4 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 16.4
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 32.4
Difference: 16.0
Decade Rank: 18
Unless you're named Darko Milicic, being selected in the famed 2003 draft class is usually a good thing. Chris Bosh is no exception to this rule.
By his third season in the NBA, Bosh was averaging more than 20 points per game and leading his rather inept Toronto Raptors teammates to significantly more wins than expected.
Potential to Surpass Bosh: Jonas Valanciunas
Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant (Technically Seattle SuperSonics)
20 of 31Selected: No. 2 in 2007
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 20.5
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 38.2
Difference: 17.7
Decade Rank: 16
Portland Trail Blazers fans are probably going to hate seeing Kevin Durant on this slideshow, but the two-time scoring champion has blown away the expectations that come with the No. 2 pick while the No. 1 pick still hasn't made much of an impact at all.
Greg Oden, the former Ohio State star, for those of you that are curious, is actually the fourth-worst pick since 1990.
Nick Collison was the second-best pick this franchise made and he hasn't exactly measured up to the reigning scoring champion of the NBA.
Potential to Surpass Durant: Serge Ibaka, James Harden
Detroit Pistons: Tayshaun Prince
21 of 31Selected: No. 23 in 2002
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 6.2
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 24.7
Difference: 18.5
Decade Rank: 15
It's pretty difficult to match the production that the Detroit Pistons got out of Tayshaun Prince after they drafted him with the 23rd pick of the 2002 NBA draft.
Prince didn't make much of an impact during his rookie season, but he became a starter as a second-year player and never looked back.
Potential to Surpass Prince: Greg Monroe
Sacramento Kings: Kevin Martin
22 of 31Selected: No. 26 in 2004
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 5.5
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 24.2
Difference: 18.7
Decade Rank: 14
Just think about how tremendous Kevin Martin is on the offensive end of the court. How in the world did the Sacramento Kings manage to luck into the former Western Carolina guard at No. 26 in 2004?
Francisco Garcia is the only other draft pick with a positive Difference in the last 10 years for the Kings and he was selected in the second round.
Potential to Surpass Martin: DeMarcus Cousins
Indiana Pacers: Danny Granger
23 of 31Selected: No. 17 in 2005
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 8.0
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 26.9
Difference: 18.9
Decade Rank: 13
Danny Granger and Fred Jones are the only first-round picks that the Indiana Pacers have made who have gone on to exceed expectations. Granger though exceeded them by a whole lot more than Jones.
Relatively unheralded out of the University of New Mexico, Granger was good but not great as a first-year player, then steadily improved until he averaged a career-high 25.8 points per game as a fourth-year player and took the leap to superstardom.
Potential to Surpass Granger: None
Philadelphia 76ers: Andre Iguodala
24 of 31Selected: No. 9 in 2004
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 11.7
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 31.4
Difference: 19.7
Decade Rank: 11
Andre Iguodala made an impact for the Philadelphia 76ers right from the get-go, starting all but six games (which he missed due to injury) during the first four years of his career.
Iggy stuffed the stat sheet as soon as he entered the league, just like he does now.
Potential to Surpass Iguodala: Jrue Holiday, Nikola Vucevic
Dallas Mavericks: Josh Howard
25 of 31Selected: No. 29 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 4.9
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 25.4
Difference: 20.5
Decade Rank: 10
Josh Howard may not be a standout player now, but he was during the early 2000s.
Not a single Dallas Mavericks draft pick has even come close to overachieving at the level that Howard did after he was drafted 29th in 2003.
Potential to Surpass Howard: None
New York Knicks: David Lee
26 of 31Selected: No. 30 in 2005
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 4.7
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 26.0
Difference: 21.3
Decade Rank: 8
David Lee's Difference is almost three times as great as the New York Knicks' second-best pick of the last decade: Nate Robinson.
Lee struggled during his rookie season out of Florida then averaged a double-double as a second-year player and never looked back.
Potential to Surpass Lee: None
Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Roy
27 of 31Selected: No. 6 in 2006
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 14.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 35.4
Difference: 21.3
Decade Rank: 7
In honor of Brandon Roy's terrific, albeit way too short, career, let's use this slide to have a moment of silence for his knees.
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Not even LaMarcus Aldridge could touch Roy's impact during his first four seasons.
Potential to Surpass Roy: None
Boston Celtics: Rajon Rondo
28 of 31Selected: No. 21 in 2006
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 6.8
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 29.2
Difference: 22.4
Decade Rank: 6
Now that Rajon Rondo is one of the best floor generals in the entire NBA, it's hard to believe that he slipped all the way to No. 21 in the 2006 NBA draft, thereby making him the sixth-best pick of the entire decade.
Rondo didn't truly break out until his third season with the Boston Celtics, but from that point on, he was truly special.
The C's have made a number of great picks during the last decade yet Rondo still stands out by a lot.
Potential to Surpass Rondo: None
Miami Heat: Dwyane Wade
29 of 31Selected: No. 5 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 15.1
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 38.8
Difference: 23.7
Decade Rank: 4
In case you forgot, the 2003 draft class was pretty stacked.
Dwyane Wade comes in as the decade's fourth-best pick, but he wasn't even the best selection from that draft.
Caron Butler was another good pick for the Miami Heat, but he's not even close to surpassing Flash for the top spot.
Potential to Surpass Wade: None
Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James
30 of 31Selected: No. 1 in 2003
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 24.5
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 49.4
Difference: 24.9
Decade Rank: 3
Even though LeBron James was a top pick back in 2003, only two players in the last decade were better draft picks. That's how good LeBron has been.
Just look at his first four years in the league.
Potential to Surpass James: None
New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul
31 of 31Selected: No. 4 in 2005
Expected Four-Year Win Shares: 16.4
Actual Four-Year Win Shares: 55.3
Difference: 38.9
Decade Rank: 1
Through four seasons, Paul accumulated an astonishing 55.3 Win Shares, a total that is unmatched by any other player drafted in 1990 to the present day. Just for the record, Michael Jordan "only" accumulated 53.6 Four-Year Win Shares, a total that is slightly depressed because of the foot injury he suffered during his second season, one that limited him to just 18 games.
These numbers leave CP3 as the best draft pick of the past decade.
It's really not even close.
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