Super Bowl 2012 Line: Why Current Spread for Giants vs. Patriots Is Bad for Fans

If most sportsbooks across the country knew what was best for them, they would consider changing their Super Bowl lines before the New England Patriots face the New York Giants on Feb. 5.

There have been a few sportsbooks, like the MGM/Mirage in Las Vegas, that have swayed from the general consensus: that the Patriots should be favored by three points.

The MGM/Mirage has adjusted the spread to 2.5. The sportsbook's stance is clear: The Giants have looked better in recent weeks and the Patriots haven't looked like the powerhouse of prior years. The Giants also have a great national following that has a lot of people betting for the Giants. In that respect, if the Giants capture the Super Bowl, bettors at the MGM/Mirage would receive a smaller portion of the pie and the MGM/Mirage would come out better than a lot of sportsbooks throughout the nation.

The question is, will the Giants beat the Patriots?

I think they will. Eli Manning has been playing out of his mind, throwing for 316 yards and two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers' vaunted defense in the NFC Championship Game. The Giants' pass rush has also been spectacular this season, led by defensive ends Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants have collected seven sacks in the last two games.

For me, it's simple. The Giants will pressure Patriots quarterback Tom Brady more than the Patriots will pressure Manning. The Patriots also have a worse pass defense than the Giants this season. That will be the difference.

So while sportsbooks across the land go with the popular choice, sportsbooks like the MGM/Mirage will be sitting pretty as the Giants go on to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl for the second time in four years.