Super Bowl 2012 Line: Giants Will Beat Favored Patriots Outright

As we edge closer to Super Bowl XLVI, the New England Patriots are favored by three points over the New York Giants, per Bovada.

But the Giants should be the favored team.

I understand we're talking about the Patriots here, a team that averaged 32.1 points per game in the regular season. I also understand we're talking about Tom Brady, who threw 19 touchdowns to two interceptions in his last eight regular-season games.

But that was then, and this is now. The Giants are on a similar run as they were during the 2007 season, when they upset the vaunted Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. Eli Manning has been playing out of his mind, and Sunday's game against the dominant San Francisco 49ers defense was proof of this.

In that game, Manning threw for 316 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, despite being under constant pressure (he was sacked six times).

The Patriots don't pressure the quarterback nearly as much as the 49ers did this season and I see Manning having a big game in Indianapolis as a result.

Now we switch over to Brady. Brady is arguably coming off his worst performance since Nov. 30, 2009. He threw for just 239 yards, tossed two interceptions and had a 57.5 QB rating against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

Yes, the Ravens have a better overall defense than the Giants, but the Giants exact the same kind of pressure on the quarterback.

I understand that the Patriots basically shut down Ravens star running back Ray Rice in the AFC title game. They held him to 67 yards on 21 carries. But, let's be honest, this is not going to be a running game, for both teams. The Giants averaged 3.3 yards per carry against the 49ers and still gutted out a victory.

Don't get me wrong, this will be nail-biter, with both teams having a shot at winning the Super Bowl. But, when all is said and done, Manning will perform better than Brady and notch his second championship in four years.