NFC Championship Game 2012: New York Giants Will Continue March to Super Bowl

It's been a good run for Alex Smith and the San Francisco 49ers, but like I tried to tell you a couple of weeks ago, the New York Giants will be the ones advancing to Indianapolis on Sunday.

Yes, the Giants will be able to overcome the rain and sloppy field conditions as they march into Candlestick Park and attempt to silence a San Francisco crowd seeking it's first NFC championship since 1994.

This year's team is a team of destiny, having one of those seasons we see all too often when everything just seems to come together at the right time.

Finally healthy for the first time all season, the Giants are firing on all cylinders as they continue their march towards a second Super Bowl appearance in the last five seasons.

So how exactly did a team that was once 6-6 get to this point?

A combination of an offense that found balance in the running game along with a defense that got healthy and rediscovered it's elite pass rush.

During their current four game winning streak, the Giants have been dominant, winning by an average score of 30-13.

Eli Manning has thrown for 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions while averaging 295 yards passing during the four game stretch.  

Oh, and that pass rush we talked about?  Seventeen sacks over the last four games.

But enough about the past, let's take a look at how things will unfold this weekend in San Francisco against a 49ers team that's on a four-game winning streak of their own.

When the Giants have the ball

As good as the 49ers D has been all season, they were exposed last weekend by the New Orleans Saints aerial attack.

As a result of spotting the 49ers a 17-0 lead thanks to three first quarter turnovers, Drew Brees was forced to throw the ball early and often.

He completed 40-of-63 passes for 462 yards to go along with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The 49ers run defense is simply too good and their opponents are forced to throw the ball on nearly every down.

This won't be an issue for Eli Manning and his trio of playmaking wide receivers—Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham.  

The Giants passing game is every bit as dangerous as the Saints, they just take a slightly different approach.  

They like to run the ball (27 rushes for 95 yards versus Green Bay) to set up the play-action fake for deep throws down the field.

Manning averaged a ridiculous 10 yards per attempt last week, going 21-of-33 for 330 yards and three touchdowns.

There are two things I can assure you: The Giants are not going to turn the ball over five times and they are not going to spot the 49ers a 17-0 lead.  

The Giants will attempt to run the ball more than the Saints, but if it isn't working, head coach Tom Coughlin will have no problem playing to his teams strengths by allowing Manning to throw the ball on nearly every down if necessary.

The bottom line is no matter how good your defense is in this league, no one can stop the elite quarterbacks from throwing the ball all over the field if they so choose.  The rules favor the passing game and that's just the way things are in this era of pass-happy football.  

Look no further than 10 quarterbacks throwing for over 4,000 yards this year and three going over the 5,000 yard mark.

When the Giants are on defense

I think it's fairly safe to assume that no one anticipated Alex Smith's coming out party would take place with a trip to the NFC championship on the line.  

But it did, and Smith completed 24-of-42 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns—including a 14-yard touchdown pass to tight end Vernon Davis with nine seconds left to win the game.  

Smith engineered an 85-yard come-from-behind drive by completing 5-of-7 passes in 63 seconds. Game, set, match.

Things will be much different this week as Smith will be up against a Giants pass rush that is simply overwhelming its opponents over the past four weeks.

Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck form the most talented group of pass-rushers in the NFL today.

The 49ers offense will also have to account for Giants linebacker Michael Boley, who had eight tackles and two sacks against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last weekend.  

The Giants defense held the high-powered Packers offense to 20 points last week and 14 of those points were the direct result of two very questionable calls in favor of Green Bay.  The score of that game very easily could have been 44-6.

And as good as Alex Smith was last week against a porous Saints defense, he's not Aaron Rodgers—and the Giants defense certainly isn't anything like the Saints.

The 49ers will keep it close at home by trying to play keep away from Eli Manning for most of the day, but they won't be able to win this game by playing conservatively.  

The Giants will move the ball through the air while putting points up in a hurry and they will challenge Alex Smith to keep up.

He was able to keep up against Drew Brees last week, can he do it two weeks in a row?  Unfortunately for the city of San Francisco, I don't think he can.

Final Score: Giants 31, 49ers 24