NFL Playoffs 2012: Timely Turnovers Will Take 49ers to Super Bowl

The New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers game will come down to which team's defense creates opportunities for the offense.

All year long, the 49ers have thrived playing that game, and Sunday will be no different. San Francisco's defense will create enough opportunities to put them over New York.

When something happens all year, it can no longer be called a fluke. The 49ers were tied for the NFL lead in total turnovers, and were best in the NFL in turnover margin (plus-28). When you see that, the 5-1 turnover margin win that they had against the New Orleans Saints doesn't look that fluky.

It has been happening all season long. More importantly, it will continue to happen on Sunday. It is hard to ignore that Eli Manning threw 16 interceptions during the regular season. Candlestick Park's field will also be muddy, and the 49ers' pass rush is constant. That means Eli will be hurrying passes in less-than-ideal conditions. 

A few of those passes are going to find 49ers, and that will be the game's difference. 

The same logic applies to the Giants against Alex Smith, just with a few major differences.

One is that Smith doesn't turn the ball over with anywhere near the same frequency as Manning. While Manning threw 16 picks during the season, Smith threw only five. So, the Giants will get their sacks. There is no way that Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora will be kept out of the backfield. 

But Smith has shown all year that he can either throw the ball away or just take the sack. Manning tries to make the key passes. Sometimes he does, but he also turns it over too much. 

The other major difference is that the 49ers will have a running game to rely on, while the Giants won't be so fortunate. The Giants were dead last in the NFL in rushing offense, while the 49ers were first. That discrepancy is massive. 

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers' rushing attack was eighth in the NFL, while the Giants' run defense was 19th. That is a big advantage to the 49ers that makes up for the fact that Manning is a better pure passer than Smith. 

But ultimately, it is going to come down to the turnover margin. Manning forces passes, and the 49ers will force them at an even greater rate. When the Giants are pressuring Smith, he knows better than to force anything. If he can't see the open man, he'll throw it away or take the sack. 

Manning's two interceptions were the difference in the Week 10 game. He threw one in the fourth quarter that set up the winning touchdown. 

The 49ers are now a better team, and the weather will be significantly worse. With that, the turnovers will follow and San Francisco will earn a trip to Indianapolis.

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