Labeling Every FBS Football Team a Conference Contender or Pretender in 2012

This slideshow needs very little introduction. The topic here is simple.

116 FBS teams belong to conferences. Are they going to compete for the conference championship or not?

I’ve decided to both optimistic and pessimistic with these selections. If there’s the smallest chance that a team could compete for a title, I’ve given them the label of a contender. Hence the optimism.

On the flip side, if a team is totally overrated in my mind and undeserving of early preseason praise, I may label them a pretender. I will give explanations for all selections, but given this mindset, many choices may surprise you.

Also, instead of going in alphabetical order of programs, I will be going in alphabetical order of conferences first, and then alphabetical order of teams within the conference. So the ACC is up first, followed by the Big 12, Big East and so on.

Enjoy!

Boston College

Verdict: Pretender

Boston College improved throughout the year and despite losing their best player in Luke Kuechly, they should be much improved next season.

Still, this is a team that averaged only 18 points per game this past season. I just don't think they have the talent to compete in the ACC right now.

Clemson

Verdict: Contender

Clemson was the best team in the ACC this past season and despite the drubbing they took in the Orange Bowl, should be contenders again next year.

They will return Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Ellington on offense, but will have to cope with the losses of Dwayne Allen, Andre Branch and Rennie Moore.

They may not win it again, but they'll certainly be in the thick of things.

Duke

Verdict: Pretender

Duke needs to get over the hump and make a bowl game before they can entertain any thoughts of winning the ACC.

Making a bowl game may be possible this season with the return of Sean Renfree, Connor Vernon and nine of their top 11 tacklers. Any more than that seems like wishful thinking.

Florida State

Verdict: Contender

With almost their entire defense returning (Nigel Bradham being a significant loss), Florida State should be the favorite to win the ACC next year.

Now if they could get a consistent running game going, the Noles could be a top team in the nation. FSU finished 104th in the nation in rushing yards per game this past season, averaging 112.5 per game.

Georgia Tech

Verdict: Contender

We all know that Georgia Tech will be able to run the ball next season. With Tevin Washington, Orwin Smith and David Sims all back, that much is a given.

The defense should be much improved too. The Jackets will return with eight of their top 11 tacklers and their three leading sack men. GT is definitely a contender in the ACC.

Maryland

Verdict: Pretender

While I expect Maryland to improve next year, there are simply too many holes in their defense right now to see them contending in the ACC.

The Terps gave up 34 points per game last year. The defense was incredibly young and should improve this year. That said, a bowl game would be a more realistic forecast, not an ACC title.

Miami

Verdict: Pretender

Miami was the definition of average this past season, averaging only 18 yards more per game than their opponents and winning or losing consecutive games only once all year.

They'll lose major pieces in Jacory Harris and Sean Spence and are still in rebuilding mode. They could be very good in two seasons (especially on defense), but with the Nevin Shaprio scandal, who knows if they'll even be eligible then.

North Carolina

Verdict: Pretender

The Tar Heels are a year or two away from being a contender in the ACC.

They should be solid on the ground with the return of Bryn Renner and Giovanni Bernard. That said, they'll lose Zach Brown, Quinton Coples and three more of their top ten tacklers from a year ago.

I wanted to make UNC a contender and with new coach Larry Fedora, anything is possible. More realistically, they'll be a solid team in one to two years.

North Carolina State

Verdict: Pretender

The Wolfpack are going to miss T.J. Graham, Jay Smith and George Bryan at receiver next season. The three combined for 1,479 yards and 15 touchdowns.

They'll also be losing Audie Cole and Markus Kuhn from their front seven.

There's reason for optimism with Mike Glennon and David Amerson back, but I still see the Wolfpack as a middling team.

Virginia

Verdict: Contender

Virginia was one of the surprise teams of a season ago and their success should continue into next year. They will return Michael Rocco, Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, Steve Greer and LaRoy Reynolds.

They will also be the beneficiaries of a somewhat favorable schedule. They do not play FSU or Clemson in the regular season.

Virginia Tech

Verdict: Contender

Virginia Tech's defense should be one of the nation's best and that alone qualifies them as a contender in the ACC. The Hokies will return all 15 of their top 15 tacklers from a defense which finished seventh in the nation in scoring defense a year ago.

Offensively, the Hokies were hurt in a major way by David Wilson's decision to go pro. This leaves them with QB Logan Thomas returning and not much else.

Still, the defense will keep them in games early. If they can get a running game going, then they can win the ACC.

Wake Forest

Verdict: Contender

Wake Forest is developing into a quality passing team with QB Tanner Price and wide receivers Chris Givens and Michael Campanaro. This should continue into 2012.

While they lose Kyle Wilber and Chyl Quarles on defense, they have enough coming back to continue to improve.

Wake has a history of overachieving and playing beyond their means. I wouldn't be surprised to see it again next year. They do not play Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech or Miami.

Baylor

Verdict: Pretender

Baylor will be losing the second best player in the history of the program (Samurai Mike being No. 1) and will also lose Terrance Ganaway and Kendall Wright.

That is just on the offensive side of the ball. If you watched the Alamo Bowl, you'd realize that their defense is far from stellar. Baylor will struggle next year.

Iowa State

Verdict: Contender

Call me crazy with this one, but I believe that Iowa State is a team on the rise.

Jared Barnett figures to be the quarterback next year. He led the Cyclones to a win over Oklahoma State in just his fourth career start, so he's all good there.

They'll also have everyone in their backfield return and only lose two receivers. They will have to replace most of their defensive line, but the return of linebackers A.J. Klein and Jake Knott should help immensely.

Iowa State has a chance to be a surprise team next year.

Kansas

Verdict: Pretender

Even with the arrival of Charlie Weis and every castaway quarterback, Kansas will need to fix their defense before they can dream of a conference championship.

The Jayhawks finished dead last in the nation in points and yards allowed last season.

Kansas State

Verdict: Contender

Kansas State was another surprise team from the 2011 season. Just as was the case with Virginia, there's no reason to believe they won't be contenders for the title once again.

Collin Klein, John Hubert and all the wide receivers are back. I also like how they will have most of their front seven back. That said, the secondary will need to be rebuilt. It wasn't exceptionally strong this past season, so I don't feel as if K-State is going to fall very far.

Oklahoma

Verdict: Contender

Oklahoma will always be a contender for the conference title and next year will be no different. The Sooners will return Landry Jones and every wide receiver not named Ryan Broyles.

Defensively they're going to lose key players in Frank Alexander, Travis Lewis, Ronnell Lewis and Jamell Fleming.

They'll try to offset those losses, but we may see plenty of shootouts in Norman. Still, the Sooners should be expected to contend in the Big 12.

Oklahoma State

Verdict: Pretender

Oklahoma State's defense should be much improved as they return seven of their top 10 tacklers.

Still, with the losses of Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and Josh Cooper, the offense will struggle early. I'm confident in Clint Chelf and the eventual replacements, but it may take a while.

TCU

Verdict: Contender

I don't care what conference they're playing in next year, TCU is going to contend for the title.

The Frogs have lost five games in four years and were supposed to be enduring an off-year this year. They turned that off-year into a 10-2 record and a BCS snub.

Next year they'll have Casey Pachall, Josh Boyce, Skye Dawson, Ed Wesley and Waymon James back on offense alone. Defensively they'll lose Tank Carder and not much more.

TCU has as good a chance to win the Big 12 as anyone.

Texas

Verdict: Contender

Texas was making significant strides this season before being totally ravaged by injuries.

Next year, with another year of development for David Ash, Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron and Marquise Goodwin, the Horns may be formidable on offense (at least better than they were down the stretch this season).

With Alex Okafor, Jackson Jeffcoat and Kenny Vacarro back, the Horns can continue to improve on defense.

Texas may be one of the surprise teams of 2012.

Texas Tech

Verdict: Pretender

Seth Doege and almost all of the receivers are coming back, so the offense should be great.

But it was great this season. The problem came on defense. The Red Raiders gave up over 39 points per game defensively.

They're going to return 11 of their top 13 tacklers, but still lack the playmakers and talent on defense to compete for the conference title. They should improve, however, and return to a bowl game.

Cincinnati

Verdict: Pretender

I'd like to see the Bearcats pick up right where they left off this season, but with the loss of Zach Collaros, Isaiah Pead and D.J. Woods, that may be difficult to do.

Perhaps worst of all, the Bearcats will lose three of their top four tacklers including J.K. Schaffer and Derek Wolfe.

This is a rebuilding year.

Connecticut

Verdict: Contender

UConn has the chance to be very good on defense next year. The team allowed only 24 points per game this past season and they will be returning 10 of their top 12 tacklers.

They'll be a run-first team on offense with the talents of Lyle McCombs. Maybe a strong running game and a strong rush defense will be enough to keep them in the hunt in the always unpredictable Big East.

Louisville

Verdict: Contender

If West Virginia leaves the Big East, then Louisville figures to be the favorite. Even if they don't, Louisville can compete with the big boys from Morgantown (they did beat WV and tie for the title this season).

They'll have QB Teddy Bridgewater, their two top receivers and most of their already-stellar defense, one that finished 17th in the nation in points allowed.

Pittsburgh

Verdict: Contender

Pitt was slotted to be one of the favorites in the Big East last year. Then, injuries, poor line play and an uncommitted coach derailed any hopes of a Big East title.

If they forget about Todd Graham and simplify their offense, they can be decent. They'll have Tino Sunseri and all of their receivers back, along with a healthy Ray Graham.

They'll be gutted in the front seven, so both lines will need to be re-built. That's the name of the game. If they can replace and build the lines they could compete in the Big East.

Rutgers

Verdict: Contender

It's unfortunate that WR Mohamed Sanu decided to leave early for the NFL. Otherwise Rutgers would have players back at every key position on offense and could be much improved.

Still, the Knights were playing much better football down the stretch in 2011 and that should continue into 2012. Getting Steve Beauharnais and Khaseem Greene is huge. This team will compete for the title in 2012.

South Florida

Verdict: Contender

It seems like we have to label South Florida a contender every season no matter how they performed the year before. Usually they start hot and end cold. 2011 was no exception to the rule.

The fact is, the defense will be much better next year, especially up front. B.J. Daniels will be back again next year and thus win the annual "I feel like he's been there for seven years" award.

They'll also have all their backs and receivers back. If they don't compete next year, then they probably never will.

Syracuse

Verdict: Pretender

Syracuse will be losing their quarterback, their leading rusher (who accounted for over 70 percent of the rushing offense) and five of their top six receivers.

They are still in rebuild mode.

West Virginia

Verdict: Contender

West Virginia is the defending champ and has Geno Smith, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin back. Of course they will be contenders in the Big East.

If they were to play in the Big 12, then they would still be contenders (but obviously find life more difficult). They need to develop a running game and despite the thrashing they gave Clemson, need to work on their defense.

They're going to lose five of their top ten tacklers including their three best players in Bruce Irvin, Najee Goode and Julian Miller.

Illinois

Verdict: Pretender

Illinois fell hard in the second half of the season, losing six straight before defeating 6-7 UCLA in the Fight Hunger Bowl.

They're losing their best receiver and top two rushers from a team that averaged only 11 points in the final six regular season games. They'll also lose their best player overall in Ted Hendricks Award winner Whitney Mercilus.

They should get recommitted to the running game with new coach Tim Beckman, but realistically they will not be competing for a Big Ten title next season.

Indiana

Verdict: Pretender

Indiana should feel better about losing Gunner Kiel now. Apparently LSU isn't good enough for Kiel either, as he de-committed from the nation's runner-up to attend Notre Dame.

All jokes about Kiel's wishy-washiness aside, Indiana is not going to compete for a Big Ten title next year. They should be improved, but a Big Ten title is a stretch.

Iowa

Verdict: Pretender

Iowa is going to be led by two talented linebackers in Christian Kirksey and James Morris. They hope to regain the strong defensive mentality that has been missing in Iowa City for the past couple of years.

Offensively they'll have to deal with another replacement at running back, as Marcus Coker was released from the team.

They may be alright with James Vandenberg, but I can't really see this team competing for a Big Ten title. They will lose almost their entire defensive line.

Michigan

Verdict: Contender

Michigan has nearly everyone back from a team that snuck into the BCS this past season. They may miss the big-play potential of Junior Hemingway, but knowing Michigan's offense, I'm sure they'll just continue to throw the ball in the air and have someone come up with it.

They will miss Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen along the D-line but not enough to exclude them from a list of Big Ten contenders.

They get MSU at home but have to travel to Columbus and Lincoln. They don't have to play Wisconsin or Penn State.

Michigan State

Verdict: Contender

MSU will lose Kirk Cousins and almost all of their receivers but should still contend for a conference title.

That's because they have the talents of a developing Le'Veon Bell returning along with what is already a great defense.

They're going to have Max Bullough, Denicos Allen, Chris Norman, Marcus Rush, Isaiah Lewis and William Gholston back on defense. That alone is enough to qualify them as a contender.

Minnesota

Verdict: Pretender

I'd like to think that Minnesota will improve next year, maybe even to the level of making a bowl game, but winning a championship is a stretch.

They'll have Marqueis Gray back, but this is a team that scored 18 points per game and allowed over 31.

Nebraska

Verdict: Contender

Nebraska continues to churn out four loss seasons with the promise and potential of greater things the next season. I'll fall for it again.

Rex Burkhead is developing into one of the best backs in the nation and he'll return with Taylor Martinez. Maybe they can commit themselves to the rushing attack and dominate in that regard.

They'll lose LaVonte David but return almost everyone else in their front seven. They have the chance to improve greatly on defense and that could be what gets them over the hump.

Northwestern

Verdict: Pretender

Northwestern will be losing Dan Persa and Jeremy Ebert, the two best players on their offense. They're also going to lose four of their top six tacklers.

Northwestern oddly went from underrated to overrated in the matter of two short years. It seems as if they'll always beat someone they aren't supposed to, but lose to an inferior team (e.g. Nebraska and Army this year, respectively). They'll most likely be a middling team again next year, not competing for the conference title.

Ohio State

Verdict: Contender

OSU can't play in the conference championship game next season, so theoretically they're automatically a pretender.

Let's pretend for a second that the ban didn't exist. Would OSU be capable of winning the Big Ten?

With Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde and Devin Smith all returning on offense along with C.J. Barnett and John Simon returning on defense...absolutely.

Fans will have to wait until 2013 though.

Penn State

Verdict: Pretender

Penn State has had inconsistencies at quarterback and until those are ironed out, they won't compete for a Big Ten title. They will also be going through a coaching change for the first time in 45 years.

Penn State was able to win close games this season by playing solid defense. They are going to lose Devon Still, Jack Crawford, Drew Astornio and Nathan Stupar from this side of the ball.

Purdue

Verdict: Contender

There seem to be only two teams in the Big Ten Leaders division that are capable of winning the division: Wisconsin and Purdue. Purdue gets the Badgers early in the season at home...so why not?

The Boilers have Caleb TerBush, Kawann Short and a healthy Ralph Bolden. This is a team capable of surprising many.

Wisconsin

Verdict: Contender

The Badgers are losing Russell Wilson, offensive coordinator Paul Chryst and a heap of assistants, but not much else.

They got a boost when Montee Ball announced he would be returning for his senior season. They'll also have Jared Abbrederis, Jason White, Mike Taylor, Chris Borland, Beau Allen and a whole heap of linemen on both sides of the ball.

They've won it two years in a row and are the favorites again next year.

East Carolina

Verdict: Contender

ECU improved over the course of the season (save for the loss against UTEP) and set up a winner-earns-a-bowl-game showdown against Marshall in the finale. ECU lost and fell to 5-7.

The Pirates improved defensively under Ruffin McNeill and will have almost their entire unit back next season. That includes freshman standout Jeremy Grove, who tallied 122 tackles in his inaugural campaign.

They're losing QB Dominique Davis, but given his 19 interceptions, that may not be the worst thing in the world. If they cut down turnovers and continue to improve on defense, they have a shot in a wide-open C-USA.

Houston

Verdict: Pretender

Houston will have to replace its coach, the all-time leading passer, their top four receivers and their two best defenders.

Great season for Houston in 2011. If they come anywhere close to it again, it would be beyond remarkable.

Marshall

Verdict: Pretender

Marshall is losing a majority of their top defenders: Vinny Curry, Tyson Gale, George Carpenter and Omar Brown.

While the offense should be improved with most men returning, this is a team that averaged only 21 points per game and allowed 28 per game. The loss of the defenders outweighs the returners on offense. This will be a middling team again, perhaps capable of a bowl, but not a C-USA title.

Memphis

Verdict: Pretender

Memphis has a long way to go before they rekindle the glory years.

Coach Larry Porter was fired after only his second season in the River City. In steps Justin Fuente, who immediately opened up the team to the entire student body: Walk-on tryouts were earlier this week at Penny Hardaway Hall.

Rice

Verdict: Pretender

Rice was capable of springing an upset on Purdue last season, but still finished only 4-8. Now, they will be losing their starting quarterback and running back.

They'll also lose their top two defenders in Scott Solomon and Justin Allen. There's room for slight improvement, but not for a conference title.

SMU

Verdict: Contender

I will buy into June Jones' SMU team once again for the 2012 season.

This team was 115th in the nation in turnovers lost, yet still won eight games—including a beat down of Pitt in the Compass Bowl.

They'll have 1,200 yard rusher Zach Line back along with leading receiver Darius Johnson. Defensively they return almost their entire front seven.

They'll need a new quarterback with the departure of J.J. McDermott. Will they go back to Kyle Padron (who was replaced by McDermott) or go in a new direction altogether?

Southern Miss

Verdict: Pretender

Southern Miss has lost a lot. First, four-year starter Austin Davis at quarterback. Then, the top two receivers along with Cordarro Law, Ronnie Thornton, Deddrick Jones and pretty much their entire front seven on defense. Then, they lost their coach.

They'll have to find a new quarterback and a new defensive line before they can compete for another conference title. Khyri Thornton has shown promise on the line, but there are some big shoes to fill.

Tulane

Verdict: Pretender

Tulane cut ties with Bob Toledo this past season, ushering in the Curtis Johnson era. Johnson has experience in the NFL (with the hometown Saints nonetheless) and should be a great hire.

Still, there's some work to be done. Namely, the 37 points per game they allowed last season. The Wave will be returning close to 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball, so they should be much improved there.

Offensively, the Wave will return their quarterback, running back and top four receivers.

Wait a minute—is it possible that Tulane rekindles a fire in New Orleans? I expect improvement, but let's shoot for a bowl game first before we anoint them contenders for C-USA.

Tulsa

Verdict: Contender

The Hurricane are losing their two best defenders in Tyrunn Walker and Curnelius Arnick and are also losing their quarterback. Still, I think there's enough talent here to compete for a C-USA title.

They'll return most of their other defenders, along with two talented running backs in Ja'Terian Douglas and Trey Watts. The two combined for 1,781 yards last season.

They'll return their top two receivers as well, putting the Demaris Johnson saga behind them completely.

UAB

Verdict: Pretender

UAB was a very young team this season and with a returning quarterback, running backs and leading receivers, they can be greatly improved on offense next year.

Still, the defense allowed 37 points per game last year and is losing their best players in Jamie Bender and Lamanski Ware.

Until that is addressed, the Blazers will not win the C-USA.

UCF

Verdict: Contender

Just one season after winning the championship, UCF fell into the ranks of a losing team. Expect a major rebound next season.

Back will be QB Jeff Godfrey, their top two backs (including a healthy Latavius Murray) and their three top receivers. So far so good.

George O'Leary's teams will always be known for defense. Despite underachieving and playing with a relatively inexperienced squad, the Knights still only allowed 18 points per game in 2011. Next year they'll return 16 of their top 18 tacklers.

This team suffered through injuries and inexperience in 2011. Next year they'll be the favorites in the conference.

UTEP

Verdict: Pretender

UTEP is going to lose their top three rushers next season. The trio combined for 1,634 yards and 21 touchdowns, and their departure will leave a major hole in the Miners' offense.

There is some talent returning on defense next year. The four leading tacklers for loss are back. They'll lose leading tackler Jeremy Springer but could return close to nine starters from a team which allowed 30 points per game.

The defense should be better, the offense worse. All in all, a bowl game would be nice for UTEP, but a conference title is a reach.

Akron

Verdict: Pretender

Terry Bowden is coming in to revitalize a program that has won two games in the past two seasons. A bowl should be a first priority, then a conference title.

The Zips will have almost all of their skill players back on offense and should improve under Chuck Amato's defense. Therefore the bowl could be within reach, but it will be a few years before a conference title is a reality.

Ball State

Verdict: Contender

Ball State is an interesting team. I feel as if they overachieved this season to go 6-6, given that they were outscored by an average of nine points per game.

They'll be returning around seven starters from a maligned defense along with their quarterback and freshman running Jahwan Edwards.

I use contender loosely here. They improved over the stretch of 2011 and if they continue to overachieve, they could find themselves in the thick of things in the MAC.

Bowling Green

Verdict:  Contender

Bowling Green is similar to Ball State in that they will return their quarterback, some talented running backs, but lose their top two receivers. Bowling Green's losses hurt more than Ball State's, as Kamar Jorden and Eugene Cooper combined for 1,897 yards and 21 touchdowns in the air.

Bowling Green will have nearly everyone back on defense. This included Chris Jones and Dwayne Woods who had 14 tackles for loss each last season. The defense as a whole gave up only 28 points per game, which isn't awful for the MAC.

Bowling Green is a sleeper in the MAC next season. If they can replace their departed receivers they can be very good.

Buffalo

Verdict:  Contender

Buffalo will be returning 1,300 yard rusher Branden Oliver and close to nine starters on defense, including linebacker stud Khalil Mack.

Buffalo played the lowest scoring games of all in the MAC, averaging just 22 points per game but giving up 29 per game. I expect this to even out and if they can win a few close games, they will be in the thick of things.

Central Michigan

Verdict: Pretender

Defense was the problem in Mount Pleasant last season and things do not figure to improve with the losses of Armond Staten and John Carr.

Offensively, the Chippewas have a chance to put up big numbers with the return of QB Ryan Radcliff and four of the top five receivers on the team. Expect a lot of shooutouts, but until their defense improves, I can't see a MAC title.

Eastern Michigan

Verdict: Contender

I love everything Ron English has done in Ypsilanti. The defense has improved during his tenure but I still don't know how high the ceiling is.

EMU will lose their top defenders in Brad Ohrman, Willie Williams and Latarrius Thomas. However, if history is any guide, English should be able to find replacements.

They'll return all of their skill on offense and should be improved. If they can find replacements for the defense they'll contend. If they can't, they won't.

Kent State

Verdict: Contender

Kent State averaged a paltry 17 points per game last season. This has to improve before they can dream of a conference title. They'll have some personnel back to improve on this next year.

They allowed an average of 24 points per game in conference and have close to 10 starters next season. Therefore, we could see Kent State games as a nice low-scoring change in what should still be a high-scoring MAC.

This team won four of their last five after starting 1-6. With most of their starters back, they could be a serious sleeper in the MAC.

Miami

Verdict: Contender

The Zac Dysert to Nick Harwell connection should become familiar with everyone this season. Dysert is returning as a 3,500 yard passer and 1,425 yards and nine touchdowns went to Harwell.

They'll also return around seven starters from a defense which allowed only 22 points per game. Miami will be a contender in the MAC.

Northern Illinois

Verdict: Pretender

NIU is going to have trouble replacing Chandler Harnish, who only threw for 3,200 yards and rushed for an additional 1,379. Jasmin Hopkins and Nathan Palmer also leave the high powered offense.

Pat Schiller, Ron Newcomb and Jordan Delegal are all gone from the defense.

Until we can see how the Huskies replace these players, they're going to be in the pretender category.

Ohio

Verdict: Contender

If not for a major collapse in the MAC title game, Ohio would be the defending champions of the conference. They aren't, but they are the favorite in 2012.

They'll lose LaVon Brazill to the NFL but return Tyler Tettleton, who improved drastically at QB throughout the year.

They're also set to return 11 of the top 12 tacklers from an already stout defense. Other than Noah Keller, everyone is back from a defense which allowed only 22 points per game last season.

Temple

Verdict: Pretender

Temple suffered a big blow when Bernard Pierce declared for the NFL draft. That leaves the Owls without their best player and without a quarterback or their top three receivers from last season.

Temple's strength last season (other than running the ball) was their defense, but the Owls are going to lose five of their top six tacklers.

Rebuilding year for the Owls.

Toledo

Verdict: Pretender

Toledo is losing head coach Tim Beckman, but offensive coordinator Matt Campbell will replace him. Therefore, there shouldn't be a fall-off in the short term.

What will hurt are the losses of Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams at running back. The two combined to rush for 1,742 yards and 22 touchdowns last season.

Worse yet, Toledo will lose eight of their top 11 tacklers. This is a defense that was porous at times last season and things don't seem to be improving.

Western Michigan

Verdict: Pretender

Alex Carder is a great quarterback. How great? We'll find out next year when he is without Jordan White, Chleb Ravenell and Robert Arnheim.

The three receivers combined for 269 receptions, 3,452 yards and 30 touchdowns. No, not in their careers. In 2011 alone.

The Broncos are also going to lose four of their top five tacklers. This includes standout Drew Nowak, who tallied 20.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks.

Air Force

Verdict: Pretender

Air Force appeared to be headed into this season fielding one of their best teams since the Fisher DeBerry era. Instead, the Falcons were inconsistent and disappointing on defense, both factors contributing to a 7-6 record.

Next year they're going to lose Tim Jefferson, Asher Clark and their top two receivers on offense. In short, they will be ravaged with departures.

The same is true on defense. The Falcons will lose six of their top 10 tacklers but will welcome back a couple of solid linebackers in Alex Means and Jamil Cook.

Overall, they're going to find it difficult to win the Mountain West.

Boise State

Verdict: Contender

Boise State may not be a national contender with the loss of Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, Tyler Shoemaker or Billy Winn, but they should still be able to hold their own in the conference.

Boise State loses nine of their top 10 tacklers. Their five leaders in tackles for loss are all gone, as are their top three leaders in sacks. That is a massive overhaul.

They'll welcome Joe Southwick to the quarterback position and ask him to hook up with Matt Miller. The freshman receiver caught 62 passes in 2011.

That's a lot gone. It will be interesting to see if they can capture a TCU-less Mountain West.

Colorado State

Verdict: Contender

With no runaway in the conference, I'm going to go out on a limb and proclaim Colorado State as a contender for the 2012 season.

Jim McElwain will be inheriting a team with plenty of returning starters. 1,100 yard rusher Chris Nwoke is back, along with five of the top six receivers. McElwain should be able to make something work with that.

The Rams are the opposite of the Broncos in that they'll return nine of their top 11 tacklers. That includes Nordly Capi and C.J. James, two linemen which combined for 15 sacks in 2011.

The conference is down and it could be anybody's to win. Colorado State should throw their hat in the ring.

Fresno State

Verdict: Contender

Fresno State will be joining the Mountain West next year and despite being without head coach Pat Hill for the first time in 15 years, the Bulldogs have a realistic chance to win the MWC.

Derek Carr will have a full cast of receivers to throw to and could put up great numbers. Defensively the Bulldogs were bad, so they went out and hired Tim DeRuyter, a coach known for defensive turnarounds.

This can be a dangerous team next year.

Hawaii

Verdict: Pretender

Here's to hoping that Norm Chow is successful as a head coach in Hawaii. He's been successful for over 25 years at various places as an offensive coordinator, so why not make it in Honolulu?

Unfortunately, he'll be inheriting a depleted team. Bryant Moniz and Royce Pollard are gone from the offense, and the defense—which gave up 39 points per game last season—are losing three of their four top tacklers.

Hawaii is going to have trouble stopping people next year. Give Chow a couple of years though and they could be back.

Nevada

Verdict: Pretender

Nevada will be losing five of their top nine tacklers and their leading rusher. I want to put my trust in the hall-of-famer Chris Ault, and while I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wolfpack near the top of the MWC, I can't put them as a contender quite yet.

New Mexico

Verdict: Pretender

Bob Davie is inheriting a team that has gone 3-33 in the past three years. They made absolutely no progress under Mike Locksley.

They will have most of their offense back but lose some of their better defenders on defense. This team is at least two years away from competing for a conference title.

San Diego State

Verdict: Pretender

Ronnie Hillman decided to forgo two years of eligibility and a chance at some all-time records to head to the NFL Draft. He will be missed.

The Aztecs are also going to miss QB Ryan Lindley. They have four sophomore receivers returning next year...they just need someone to throw it to them.

They lose a lot on their defense and will have to rebuild. That, coupled with the loss of Hillman, will be too much to overcome next year.

UNLV

Verdict: Pretender

Bobby Hauck is getting one more season to make it work in Las Vegas. In two seasons he is only 4-21.

Both sides of the ball were awful in 2011. They allowed 40 points per game and scored only 17. They're losing most of their defense and all of their receivers, so I don't see how this team can contend for the title.

Wyoming

Verdict: Contender

Wyoming could very well be the favorite in the Mountain West. They'll at least contend.

Why not? They finished third this past season, behind only Boise State and TCU. TCU is gone and Boise is depleted. The Cowboys will get Boise at home.

They did this all with a freshman quarterback in Brett Smith. Smith rushed for 700 yards and threw for 2,600. They'll have all their skill back from a team that averaged 26 points per game.

They're going to lose a couple of contributors from the linebacking corps and along the defensive line. If they can patch those holes up, then why not Wyoming?

Arizona

Verdict: Pretender

Rich Rodriguez or not, the Wildcats are losing Nick Foles, Juron Criner and Keola Antolin on their offense and their three top tacklers on defense.

These are losses from a disappointing 4-8 team. They are far from competing for a Pac-12 title.

Arizona State

Verdict: Pretender

I like that the Devils have Brock Osweiler and Cameron Marshall returning in an allegedly more powerful offense under Todd Graham.

That said, they do lose their top three receivers along with Vontaze Burfict, Colin Parker and Clint Floyd. All in all, they're losing six of their top seven tacklers.

California

Verdict: Pretender

Cal improved down the stretch this year when they were able to run the ball with Isi Soefele. He'll be back along with Keenan Allen and Zach Maynard. So maybe, just maybe, they won't miss Marvin Jones all that much.

They are going to lose a lot on defense. Five of their top six tacklers are gone, including Mychal Kendricks, Trevor Guyton and D.J. Holt.

Those are some major shoes to fill and I don't see them doing it well enough to compete in a tougher Pac-12.

Colorado

Verdict: Pretender

Colorado fought to the end this season and was rewarded with an upset win over Utah. For that, I commend them.

They just don't have the talent to compete for the Pac-12 quite yet. They're losing Tyler Hansen, Rodney Stewart and their top two receivers. They are in full-out rebuilding moment.

Oregon

Verdict: Contender

There may not be a team more decimated by the NFL draft than the Oregon Ducks. First, LaMichael James announced his early exodus and optimists claimed that he wouldn't be missed as much as his 3,500 yards over two seasons would indicate given the backups in place.

Then, to many people's surprise, QB Darron Thomas announced his plans to leave early. This leaves the Ducks high-powered rushing offense without Thomas or James.

I still see them having a high-powered offense with replacement QB Bryan Bennett and RBs Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas. Defensively, they'll have John Boyett and Michael Clay back.

They've built something in Eugene, something that is bigger than just a couple of players. They may not be the favorites in the conference, but they're still the team to beat in the Pac-12 North.

Oregon State

Verdict: Contender

No, not a misprint. I believe that the Pac-12 North will be wide open next year and Oregon State has a chance to be the second best team.

They will have Sean Mannion, Malcolm Agnew, Markus Wheaton, Anthony Watkins and Malcolm Doctor back.

They may not have been good this year, but the Beavers were playing with mostly freshmen and sophomores. These same men improved throughout the season, beating Washington in the penultimate game.

Having so much experience back from players who have already gone through the worst is a huge advantage. Not having to play USC is another one.

Look for OSU to rebound big time next year.

Stanford

Verdict: Pretender

It's going to hurt to lose Andrew Luck, Griff Whalen, Chase Thomas, Coby Fleener and Chris Owusu. I like Stepfan Taylor, Jarek Lancaster and Shayne Skov, but asking them to carry the team to a Pac-12 title is asking a lot.

The Cardinal have to host USC in September and then travel to Oregon, Washington and Cal on the year.

UCLA

Verdict: Pretender

UCLA became the first team to ever finish a college football season 6-8. They are welcoming a new coach in Jim Mora Jr. and are losing Nelson Rosario and Derrick Coleman from the offense.

The defense has a chance to be much improved and they'll welcome back Kevin Prince and Johnathan Franklin on offense. They may have some talented pieces here and there, but how long have we been saying that about the Bruins?

USC

Verdict: Contender

USC is returning Matt Barkley, Curtis McNeal, Robert Woods, Marquise Lee, Randall Telfer, Xavier Grimble, Dion Bailey, Hayes Pullard, T.J. McDonald and Nickell Robey, to name a few. They are the favorite in the conference and have a legitimate shot to win the national championship.

Besides Matt Kalil, the future top-three pick in the NFL, USC will miss DaJohn Harris, Nick Perry and Rhett Ellison the most. Harris and Perry combined to tally 20 tackles for loss this past season and Ellison was a do-everything H-Back who excelled in blocking in the open field for Woods and Lee. They will have to replace these pieces before they can entertain the thought of a BCS championship.

Utah

Verdict: Contender

Utah has a chance to be one of the sleeper teams in the entire nation next year. They will have a fully healthy Jordan Wynn, an emerging John White IV, all of their receivers back and playmakers like Trevor Reilly and Star Lotuleli back on defense.

Utah only lost once after Halloween this year (an ugly loss to Colorado in which John White IV went down with an injury early). Next year, they get USC at home on a Thursday night and do not play Oregon or Stanford.

Washington

Verdict: Pretender

Keith Price is coming back but Washington figures to be much less balanced with the loss of Chris Polk. Price also loses his top two targets in Jermaine Kearse and Devin Aguilar.

Their defensive line consisted of a couple of freshmen last year, so they will obviously have them back. They won't lose much on defense, so they should be improved. They better be because, you know, they did give up 67 points to Baylor.

Until that happens and until Keith Price shows he can win a game on his own, this team is a pretender. I'm not buying Price as a Heisman contender because while I did see the Alamo Bowl, I also saw the games he played against Oregon and Arizona.

Washington State

Verdict: Contender

Miek Leach is inheriting a very experienced team.

Jeff Tuel was sidelined most of 2011 with an injury but should return. Or, Leach could go with freshman standout Connor Halliday at quarterback.

The Cougars three leading rushers are returning, along with superstar WR Marquess Wilson. Defensively, they return 19 of their top 22 tacklers.

This team is already experienced and was desperately in need of a change. They realistically may be two years away from competing, but don't be surprised if a small change—like getting Mike Leach—puts this team over the top and into contention.

Alabama

Verdict: Contender

Alabama is the defending national champion and despite losing Trent Richardson, Courtney Upshaw, Mark Barron, Dre Kirkpatrick and Don'ta Hightower, this team can compete in 2012 once again.

They'll have Eddie Lacy and an experienced receiving corps for the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, they'll have Nico Johnson and Robert Lester to fill some holes, along with Damion Squire and Ed Stinson.

Another national championship would be unrealistic, given how much they've lost. Still, it would be foolish to think they can't compete for the SEC title.

Arkansas

Verdict: Pretender

I'm tired of having the same conversation about Arkansas. In the past three seasons, the Hogs are 8-9 against ranked opponents. They are also 1-5 against LSU and Alabama.

I don't see them getting over the hump this season. They'll have some talented receivers and Knile Davis returning, but will lose Joe Adams and Jarius Wright, by far the two best players on the offense.

Defensively, they lose Jerry Franklin and Tramain Thomas, the team's two leading tacklers. They'll also lose the 10 sacks from Jake Bequette.

Tyler Wilson and the flashy receivers are nice and all, but it hasn't gotten the job done yet. I don't see that changing.

Auburn

Verdict: Contender

Auburn won eight games in a season in which many predicted they would not make a bowl. They had to replace several defenders and a Heisman Trophy winner. For that, this season was a success.

They're going to continue their upward trend next year. Michael Dyer may have left but they have a stable of backs in Onterio McCalebb and Tre Mason and all of their receivers back.

Defensively they return in the neighborhood of nine to 10 starters.

A lot of starters returning from an 8-5 team the year before? Sounds like the 2010 Tigers to me...

Florida

Verdict: Pretender

Florida finished with a 7-6 record, despite beating zero ranked teams this past season.

With the losses of Jeff Brantley, Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey, it may get worse on offense before it gets better.

There's plenty of talent back on defense and they should thrive under Muschamp. Still, they are probably one year away from competing for the SEC again.

Georgia

Verdict: Contender

I'm apparently the only person on the planet who does not have Mark Richt in the coaching hall-of-fame. To me, not kicking a field goal when up 2-0 early in the game, then continuing to throw when up 16-0 on a team that can't move the ball on you, and then taking a knee on 2nd down in overtime to set-up a 42 yard field goal isn't good coaching. That's just me. Richt did all of these in the Outback Bowl.

Regardless, UGA should have a terrific defense next year with Shawn Williams, Jarvis Jones, Bacarri Rambo and Alec Ogletree returning.

If Isaiah Crowell can get his head straight and contribute (or at least not cause the backfield to implode) and a returning receiver can step up as a big-time playmaker, UGA can win the SEC and maybe more. Still, this is a team that went 2-4 against ranked teams in 2011.

UGA goes to South Carolina and Auburn, but does not face LSU, Arkansas or Alabama. Can't ask for much more (other than what they got this year, not having to play those three and getting South Carolina and Auburn at home).

Kentucky

Verdict: Pretender

Kentucky had one of the worst offenses in the nation this past year, finishing 117th in the nation in scoring.

It could get better with another year for Maxwell Smith and the return of CoShik Williams, but to expect them to win the SEC is unrealistic.

LSU

Verdict: Contender

LSU is the No. 1 team in the nation entering the season and are certainly a contender for the SEC title.

They have to find a new quarterback, but will have a four-headed monster at running back returning. Defensively they'll have Sam Montgomery, Barkevious Mingo, Eric Reid, Michael Brocker and Tyrann Mathieu.

Mississippi State

Verdict: Pretender

Mississippi State enters a rebuilding mode with the losses of Chris Relf and Vick Ballard. I expect them to be more of a passing team with Tyler Russell running the offense and their top four receivers back.

The biggest loss for the Bulldogs came when Fletcher Cox declared for the NFL draft. Almost the rest of the front seven comes back intact, but losing Cox was huge.

Missouri

Verdict: Contender

Missouri will be playing in the SEC East next year which makes them immediate contenders. SEC fans may not want to hear it, but it's true.

The Tigers were playing as well as anyone down the stretch, winning five of their last six games with the only loss being a three-point margin to Baylor.

QB James Franklin went from lost in the season opener to one of the best players in the conference. He finished with 2,800 yards passing and 981 rushing.

With Henry Josey, T.J. Moe, Andrew Wilson and Zaviar Gooden back, Mizzou is a serious sleeper. They get Georgia and Alabama at home and avoid LSU and Arkansas.

Ole Miss

Verdict: Pretender

I like Hugh Freeze coming back home to Ole Miss, but he is inheriting a mess in Oxford right now. Approximately 18 starters coming back is great and should lead to a better record, but this is off of a 2-10 team. Expect an improvement in the win column, but not an SEC title.

South Carolina

Verdict: Contender

If the schedule-makers were kinder to South Carolina in 2011, then they would have played in consecutive SEC title games. Instead, they had to settle for their first 11 win season ever.

It wasn't as if it were smooth sailing all the way either. South Carolina finally parted ways with oft-suspended Stephen Garcia and lost their best offensive player in Marcus Lattimore. Still, they prevailed.

They'll have Connor Shaw back who stepped in for Garcia halfway through the year. They'll have a great backfield of Brandon Wilds and Lattimore.

Defensively, they'll continue to see the maturation of Jadevon Clowney. Losing Melvin Ingram and Antonio Allen hurts, but there is enough talent here to make up for it. Expect South Carolina to compete for the SEC title once again.

Tennessee

Verdict: Pretender

I wanted to be generous with Tennessee and assign them contender status, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it. A season of development was lost with Tyler Bray's injury and I want to see how he performs next year (he didn't do well in the return from his injury).

Which Tennessee will show up? The one that won against Cincinnati 45-23? Or the one that lost to Kentucky 10-7? Either way, I don't see them getting to the top of the SEC.

Texas A&M

Verdict: Pretender

Texas A&M will be playing in the SEC West next year, also known as the toughest division in the nation and owners of three straight national championships.

Not a good scenario with a new head coach, a new quarterback and a new running back. Oh, and the defense was pretty bad last year, allowing 28.2 points per game.

A&M is a storied program and may eventually compete with teams of the SEC...but not next year.

Vanderbilt

Verdict: Contender

Vanderbilt was a major surprise this season and in reality they were just a few plays away from having a much stronger record. They lost to Tennessee, Georgia, Florida and Arkansas by a combined 19 points and still went 6-6.

I expect the team to continue to improve under James Franklin. Jordan Rodgers, Zac Stacy and Jordan Matthews are all primed for breakout years.

They also get a break in the schedule department. Teams only play two teams from the opposing division this year in the SEC. Vanderbilt gets Auburn at home and travels to Ole Miss. That means no Arkansas, Alabama or LSU.

Arkansas State

Verdict: Contender

Ryan Aplin is back, along with four of his top five targets and Gus Malsahn is replacing Hugh Freeze. Life is good in Jonesboro.

But it isn't perfect. ASU will lose most of their front seven and a majority of their defense. While this doesn't mean they won't contend for the Sun Belt title, it is a major concern. Their defense has to be rebuilt if they are going to repeat as champions.

Florida Atlantic

Verdict: Pretender

FAU will be without head coach Howard Schnellenberger for the first time ever. While they have a new stadium and facilities, they are still a team that has won 10 games in the last three seasons.

A majority of their defense is returning, so they should improve on their one-win total from 2011. There's a long way to go before they get to the top though.

Florida International

Verdict: Pretender

FIU seemed to be on the verge of greatness early in the season, but faltered against Louisiana-Lafayette before ultimately losing three conference games. Now, they have to enter life after Wesley Carrol and T.Y. Hilton.

It's hard to estimate the loss of Hilton, the heart and soul of a multipurpose player. That said, nearly everyone will be back on a defense that was great this past season.

The Panthers allowed only 19.5 points per game in 2011 and they have 14 of their top 15 tacklers coming back. This could be one of the best defenses statistically in the 2012.

RB Kedrick Rhodes will lessen the blow of losing other top offensive players. If they can run the ball and play defense early in the season while the new quarterback matures, FIU will win the Sun Belt.

Louisiana-Lafayette

Verdict: Pretender

Louisiana-Lafayette (who I suppose is just Louisiana now) had to be one of the biggest surprises of 2011. Despite allowing 29 points per game and only out-scoring opponents by an average of three points per game, the Cajuns went 9-4!

They may come back down to Earth next year as they lose nine of their top 11 tacklers, including pretty much their entire front seven.

Their offense does have a very underrated Blaine Gautier returning along with all of his weapons. What does this mean? More shootouts for the Cajuns!

That said, I think the losses on defense hurt too much. They were 5-1 in games decided by one possession and I think that too averages out as Lafayette falls slightly.

Louisiana-Monroe

Verdict: Pretender

If Louisiana was one of the surprise teams in the nation, then ULM was one of the most disappointing. The Warhawks never recovered from a brutal early schedule and managed to win only three conference games.

Next year they'll have everyone back on offense but lose four of their top six tacklers, including key contributors along the defensive line.

The Warhawks were 0-3 in games decided by five points or less. If they can swing this stat around and fill up some holes on defense, then maybe they can compete.

Middle Tennessee

Verdict: Pretender

Middle Tennessee allowed 36 points per game last season and are losing their top four defenders.

"Logan Kilgore Trout" (sorry his name is just Logan Kilgore, but I couldn't resist) and some weapons return on offense, but until that defense gets fixed, the Raiders aren't going to win the title.

North Texas

Verdict: Pretender

North Texas is losing their best player in RB Lance Dunbar. They're also losing seven of the top 10 tacklers from a team which allowed 31 points per game last season.

QB Derek Thompson has some receivers to throw to, but the Mean Green doesn't want to be a passing team. This team needs to replace Dunbar and patch up the defense.

Troy

Verdict: Contender

It seemed funny this past season, not seeing Troy near the top of the Sun Belt Conference. That's because the Trojans had won or tied for first place in five consecutive seasons prior to this past season's 2-6 conference record.

Rest assured, they'll be back. Sooner than later.

They have QB Corey Robinson, every running back and their top five receivers returning. This team should improve drastically on their 22 points per game average of 2011.

Defensively, the Trojans were awful, allowing 34 points per game. Next year they will return five of their front seven and half of their defensive backs. With seven starters returning, they should be much improved.

Troy was inexperienced in 2011 and a setback was due. I expect a bounce-back next season and for Troy to put up a fight against the favorites, Arkansas State and FIU.

Western Kentucky

Verdict: Contender

Western Kentucky went 7-5 and 6-1 in conference, their lone loss being to eventual champ Arkansas State, 26-22. Despite all this, they were not invited to a bowl game.

Think that is brooding in the player's minds during the offseason?

The HiIltoppers are going to return in the neighborhood of seven starters on a defense which was much improved in 2011.

The main loss will come with the departure of Bobby Rainey. Rainey not only rushed for 1,695 yards, but he took 369 carries to do so. Factor in his 36 receptions and you'll see that Rainey touched the ball in 405 of 845 total plays, 47.9 percent! That is astounding.

They will obviously need to find a replacement for Rainey. That said, I think the defense can keep them in most games early while they do find other options on offense. Expect many low-scoring games with WKU, which could work to their benefit.

The WAC

First, some words on the WAC.

It's amazing that a conference can continue on with such few members and that no one could really seem to care. Apparently the WAC is adding UT-San Antonio, Texas State-San Marcos, Denver, Seattle and Hawaii at Manoa.

I'm not qualified to comment on these football teams (if they're even joining for football) and anyone who claims that they are is full of it. It's become a complete joke that conference realignment can cause something like this to happen and for no one to seem to mind.

I suppose it's a microcosm of American society today. There is no middle class anymore. You're either poor or have exorbitant wealth. Everyone is jumping to greener pastures and doesn't care what happened to the WAC.

For the purposes of this article we'll consider Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State and Utah State.

Five teams.

Idaho

Verdict: Pretender

Idaho is entering complete rebuild mode as they lose their quarterback, their top two running backs and two of their top four receivers. Additionally they'll lose six of their top 10 tacklers.

Even with five teams in the conference, Idaho figures to struggle.

Louisiana Tech

Verdict: Contender

Louisiana Tech only lost once in the WAC last season en route to a regular season title. With the talent they have returning, they are the overwhelming favorites this season.

Colby Cameron threw for 1,649 yards in only six starts. He'll welcome back all of his receivers but one, and walk-on freshman Hunter Lee at running back.

La. Tech should win the WAC and will have a chance to improve upon their fantastic 2011 season.

New Mexico State

Verdict: Pretender

The Aggies gave up 36 points per game last season—a number which needs to come down if they are going to win the WAC. Unfortunately, they lost their five top tacklers and seven of the top eight.

They're also losing their quarterback and top two receivers. It'll be a rebuilding year in Las Cruces.

San Jose State

Verdict: Contenders

The Spartans lose their quarterback and starting running back but will return most of their key players on defense. Keith Smith, Travis Johnson and Anthony Larceval will all contribute to what should be an improved defensive unit.

That, combined with the depleted conference, forced me to give a slight edge to "contenders."

Utah State

Verdict: Contender

The WAC figures to be a two-horse race between Utah State and La. Tech. We saw the Bulldogs earlier, here are the Aggies.

Utah State went 7-6 and lost their first three games by a combined eight points (to Auburn, BYU and Colorado State, no less).

They had a big blow dealt when 1,500 yard rusher Robert Turbin announced he was leaving for the NFL. Still, they'll have QBs Adam Kennedy and Chuckie Keaton back, along with three of their top four receivers.

Utah State is also going to lose two key linebackers in Bobby Wagner and Kyle Gallagher. It sounds like they are losing a lot (and they are), but this was the second best team in the conference last year and should be the main threat to Louisiana Tech.