Ravens vs. Patriots: Preview and Predictions for 2012 AFC Championship Game

The road to Indianapolis in the AFC runs through Foxboro, where the Baltimore Ravens will take on the New England Patriots in the 2012 AFC Championship for the right to play in Super Bowl XLVI.

The Ravens held down the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium, 20-13, to grant head coach John Harbaugh his second trip to the conference title game in four years. The Pats, on the other hand, find themselves back at Gillette Stadium after demolishing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos, 45-10, behind a record-tying six touchdown passes by Tom Brady.

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts

When: Sunday, January 2nd at 3 p.m. EST

Watch: CBS

Spread: Patriots -7.5 (according to sportsbook.com)

Take the Patriots here. New England has won eight of its nine home games this season if you count Saturday's annihilation of the Broncos, including the last five in a row by an average of 20.4 points per game.

Over/Under: 50.5 points (according to sportsbook.com)

Go for the under in this game. The Ravens aren't likely to score enough to push the combined point total past 50, regardless of what the Pats do on their end.

Fantasy Big Plays

START: Tom Brady

Do I really need to explain this one? 363 yards and six touchdowns should be reason enough to give Brady the nod, even against Baltimore's bulletproof defense.

SIT: Joe Flacco

Yeah, I know, the Pats' pass defense is terrible, Joe Flacco is capable of big games against bad defenses, blah blah blah.

Here's the bigger problem—Flacco has never so much as sniffed the 300-yard plateau in a postseason game and managed just 34 yards and a pick the last time he played at Gillette Stadium during the playoffs. 

START: Rob Gronkowski

So, remember what I said earlier about Tom Brady being great and having the ability to slice up Baltimore's somewhat overrated defense? Well, guess who he's likely to target?

If you guessed The Gronk, then you win. What you win is beyond my pay grade.

Keys to Ravens Win

We all know Baltimore is going to bring the heat on defense, but if the Ravens are really intent to advance to their first Super Bowl since 2001, they'll need their offense to do a much better job of killing clock and controlling tempo. 

That's not to say that Joe Flacco needs to be Tom Brady or anything. Rather, the onus will be on Flacco to manage the game and complete the occasional play-action pass, if only to keep the Pats' paltry defense honest and open things up for Ray Rice in the process. More touches for Rice ultimately means fewer possessions for New England's offense and a better shot at keeping the score right where the Ravens would like it.

Key to Patriots Win

Let Tom Brady do his thing. Sounds easy, but against Baltimore's pass rush, nothing's as simple as it seems. Brady had a tough time operating against a similarly structured Pittsburgh Steelers defense earlier this season, throwing for an un-Brady-like 198 yards and two touchdowns in a 25-17 loss at Heinz Field.

Now, the Pats won't have to worry about Terrible Towels or choppy turf at Gillette Stadium, but they will have to concern themselves with keeping Brady clean when under pressure from Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, among others. If New England's offensive line can do to Baltimore's rush what it did to Denver's, then Brady will be in for another fine day and have the Pats on their way to Lucas Oil Stadium.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 20

Forget about favoring defense over offense.

Not that the old adage isn't still true, but rather that Baltimore's D, while still far better than average, isn't nearly as dominant as it once was.

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