Broncos vs. Patriots: Breaking Down Saturday's Divisional Round Matchup

Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow continues to stay in the spotlight as he faces Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots after significantly contributing to a big win on Wild Card Weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The two teams clashed late in the regular season when the Broncos lost the turnover battle with the Patriots.

What will be in store for the second matchup?

First Round: Denver

Despite the turnovers, the Broncos had success early in the game against the New England defense. That defense, which relied heavily on variations of the Cover 2 and Cover 3 concepts, had several issues defending the Broncos running game, one that featured several runs to the numbers which tested the Patriots primary force players—the defensive backs. 

The season-long struggle for the defensive backs continued in this game as they had a very difficult time setting the edge, which would force all runs into the teeth of the two-gap defensive front.

Cornerbacks Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty, who has since converted to safety, often attacked the ball-carrier aggressively inside, which allowed the Broncos blockers to pin them inside and create a running lane for the ball-carrier outside.

Because of the successful running game, the Patriots linebackers looked to compensate for the cornerbacks and make a play individually, which led to over-aggression and discipline issues.

Consequently, quarterback Tim Tebow was able to take advantage of this with play-action, which sucked in the linebackers and created a void in the middle of the field for wide receiver Demaryius Thomas to run through. 

Breaking Down the Play-Action 

An instance of this was seen in the second quarter when Tebow connected with Thomas for a first-down pass that kept the chains moving. 

Denver broke the huddle with 12 personnel, which implies there is a single back and dual tight ends, while the Patriots countered with their base 3-4 defense, an Okie front that featured the two defensive ends aligned head-up on the offensive tackles and a nose tackle head-up on the center. 

New England's two inside linebackers were the key defensively on this play against the Broncos play-action passing game. At the snap of the ball, they read their keys, eyeballing the running back who had the ball in his belly—creating a"mesh point"—before Tebow pulled it back and looked to his left, where Demaryius Thomas was running his route against cornerback Kyle Arrington. 

The Patriots linebackers' over-aggressive read of the play-action led to them coming toward the line of scrimmage, thus creating a void behind them and the single safety. 

It was a Cover 3 Sky call made by New England that featured four underneath zone defenders—three linebackers and a strong safety—and three deep zone defenders—two cornerbacks and the free safety in the middle of the field—splitting the field into thirds.

Cornerback Kyle Arrington, whose third of the field had wide receiver Demaryius Thomas in it, dropped back in coverage with an outside alignment that took away any out-breaking routes and forced Thomas inside into the safety, who was expected to drive on the ball and either force a turnover or an incomplete pass.

Thomas took advantage of Arrington's alignment by further driving him outside with a diagonal stem before breaking it back inside on a Dig route that attacked the middle of the field, where there was a void because of over-aggressive, run-reading linebackers. 

Along with the undisciplined inside linebackers, the free safety in the middle of the field was late reading the pass, consequently allowing a completion to be made to Thomas by Tebow.

You may be thinking, "Gee, all this looks so familiar."

That's because it is. 

The issues that the Patriots had were similar to the ones the Pittsburgh Steelers would have when they met Denver on Wild Card Weekend. The Steelers defenders were oddly undisciplined and schematically unsound in this matchup, leading to big throws by Tebow, including one for the win. 

Closing the Curtain on Pittsburgh

While the Patriots implied through their coverage concepts that they had more respect for Tebow as a passer, Pittsburgh did not—the majority of the time.

While they used concepts that had deep-half pass-defenders to fend off deep shots, the majority of the time they stacked the box with eight, nine and sometimes 10 defenders (when the Broncos went to a single receiver) and dared Tebow to beat them. 

The Steelers employed various straight-man coverage concepts, such as Cover 0, as well as zone concepts (Cover 3) in an effort to shut down the Broncos running game, which they did with success by holding them to 3.9 yards per carry—under the league average.

However, because of the intense focus on stopping the running game, the Steelers were vulnerable to Denver's passing game, which was heavily based off of the aforementioned running game.

The passing concepts used by Denver were ones that continued to attack the middle of the field as witnessed against the Patriots; much like the Patriots, the Steelers had disciplinary issues.

Deep Shots for the Undisciplined

Safety Troy Polamalu was the key defender on a 40-yard pass to tight end Daniel Fells, who ran a converted Post from a Shallow route, off of play-action.   

Polamalu, who was a single deep safety in the heart of the Cover 3 concept, lost discipline in the middle of the field once Tebow left the pocket on a designed rollout and looked for his pass-catchers, which featured two of the three tight ends running routes downfield.

The long-haired, rangy safety left the deep center of the field once he saw wide receiver Demaryius Thomas break off his vertical stem to complete a deep comeback route. The mobile Tebow initially looked to Thomas, who often is his primary (and only) read, but then turned his eyes toward the center of the field where there was only a pass-catcher.

This was one of a plethora of instances in which Polamalu and the Steelers defenders lost their assignments or vacated their zones, which is something that New England will have to avoid today.

Second Round: Foxboro

This weekend's matchup will bring hype and a focused set of eyes from fans who look to see what Bill Belichick's defense will throw at maligned quarterback Tim Tebow.

Whichever defensive concept Belichick chooses to throw at Tebow, he'll have to make sure his players make the correct reads and, more importantly, work as a team to slow down the cohesive offensive unit of the Broncos. 

There will be many things to watch for this weekend, but here are some specific things that I will look for as I watch the game.

What Surprises Will the Broncos Offense Spring?

The Denver Broncos did not spring any surprises in their Wild Card Weekend matchup with the Steelers. They ran their core concepts, and their pass-catchers made sight adjustments while running their routes to attack Pittsburgh's aggressive secondary.

Will they turn to any trick plays or more of the Wildcat package against the Patriots? It wouldn't surprise me if they use any throwback passes to Tim Tebow out of the Wildcat package.

Can the Patriots Set the Edge?

This is a key to the winning formula for the Patriots, and something they must do to avoid a rushing output like the one Denver had in the first quarter of their last meeting. The cornerbacks and safeties must force the run back inside into the defensive line and linebackers.

This was a major issue in the last meeting, and with Tebow developing as a passer by the game, it could open up more deep-shot opportunities for the Broncos offense.

What Defensive Concepts Will the Patriots Unveil?

Their defensive game plan in the first meeting was very vanilla because they appeared to stress fundamentals in the game, which they then failed to execute.

Will we see more of Cover 3? What about Cover 2?

One tweak in the Patriots defense that I could see occurring is a deeper alignment of the linebackers and more two-gap play by the defensive line. This will allow them to still read the run aggressively but also have depth in the passing game.

Can the Broncos Slow Down the Patriots Tight Ends?

Rob Gronkowski is—simply put—a problem.

But so is Aaron Hernandez, which the Broncos defense found out the hard way when Hernandez racked up nine catches and 129 yards in their last meeting. They attempted to bracket, or double-cover, Gronkowski at times while other times simply playing man coverage on the two tight ends.

Neither worked and neither has for most teams this season. What will the Broncos do to slow down the Patriots duo? Perhaps play more Quarters coverage or jam and re-route the tight ends at the line? 

Can the Broncos Put Points on the Scoreboard?

This will be an integral part of the Broncos offensive game plan because they must be able to put points on the scoreboard against the Patriots, even if the defense slows them down.

Last week, they battled an injury-riddled Pittsburgh Steelers team, but now they'll face a healthy New England team led by injury-free Tom Brady. 

One thing's for sure, both teams will have their work cut out for them.