Picking the 2012 Dark-Horse Contender in Every Major College Football Conference

Well, the 2011 season is now officially over.

After crowning another champion, awarding another Heisman and yet another season sans a playoff, what’s next?

Yeah, we have signing day to look forward to, but why not drop the whole “review the season and fully digest it” scheme and look straight forward to what lies a mere eight months ahead: the 2012-13 season.

And, if we’re going to look deliciously to the fore, why not go ahead and begin the prediction process?

In the spirit of leaving the past behind us, the following slideshow presents a dark-horse contender for each BCS conference for the 2012 campaign that kicks-off the weekend of Saturday, Sept. 1.

These might not be the names you would expect to see in the championship mix come fall, but don’t be surprised if these squads are in position to make an unscripted run to glory.

ACC: Georgia Tech

The 2011 Yellow Jackets stormed out to a 6-0 start and then dropped four of their last six regular season contests to finish 8-4, and tied for second place in the ACC Coastal.

Georgia Tech’s subsequent overtime loss to Utah in the Sun Bowl brought the mark to 8-5, which is an improvement over their 6-7 finish in 2010. Tech certainly looked like a contender early on, but what looked like a late season skid has at least two logical explanations as to why 2012 could be special for the Yellow Jackets.

First, the final four regular season losses were to a very good Virginia team (flying way under the radar), a talented Miami FL squad, then-No. 10 ranked Virginia Tech and No. 13 Georgia in the closer.

Additionally, Georgia Tech is the team that dethroned then-No. 5 Clemson from the ranks of the unbeaten when they soundly defeated the Tigers 31-17 in late October.

The bottom line is that the Yellow Jackets didn’t necessarily fall to a long list of struggling opponents: These guys were in it to win it till the end.

Secondly, Georgia Tech achieved national recognition in 2011 while having one of the youngest, least experienced teams in the nation.

According to the wizard-like Phil Steele’s comprehensive preseason experience chart, the Yellow Jackets were ranked dead last in the ACC and No. 114 (out of 120 teams) nationally in terms of experience.

Georgia Tech will obviously mature in 2012, but it’s important to note that this is already a statistically sound team, especially given their youth.

Running the option means that the Yellow Jackets rank high in rushing yards per game (No. 2 nationally), and low in passing yards per game (No. 112 nationally) but they still managed a No. 21 ranking in scoring.

From a defensive standpoint, Georgia Tech held opponents to 26.1 points per game in 2011 and though they held foes to under 200 yards per game through the air (No. 28 nationally), they will have to improve on a rushing D that gave up gave up 160 yards per game (No. 66 nationally).

The hurdles for Georgia Tech are obvious…find a way to knock off perennial Coastal power Virginia Tech (you just have to beat them once), and then hold off up-and-comers like Virginia, North Carolina and perhaps Miami (FL) if they are eligible for postseason play next year.

The Yellow Jackets have a sort of young, maturing team necessary to make a solid run at a conference crown, and they have the substantial benefit of building on what is already a winning foundation.

Big 12: Texas Tech

The first big disclaimer to offer when mentioning Texas Tech as a Big 12 contender in 2012 is the obvious fact that I’m as big a Red Raider as you’re going to find.

That said, this analysis is not wishful thinking on my part, and is presented with as unemotional a basis as I can muster when mentioning my nearest and dearest.

Frankly, the devastated fan in me that just watched Tech get pummeled to a 5-7 finish doesn’t believe what the college football writer in me sees more clearly.

Yes, Texas Tech’s sub .500 finish in 2011 marks the first time since 1992 that the Red Raiders didn’t enjoy a winning season. So then—especially given the ugly nature of the last five losses of this season—why does Tech have a shot in hell in 2012?

Well, first it’s about the condition of the 2011 product, which was a volatile combination of being young and being hurt.

Phil Steele’s 2011 experience rankings had Tech as No. 8 in the Big 12 in experience and No. 99 nationally. When you add in the fact that a full 16 starters were lost to an injury that required surgery this season, and you see that this was a team that wasn’t playing with anywhere near a full deck.

And you could certainly see the effects of this as the season droned on into utter obscurity.

The second factor in Texas Tech’s favor is the changing climate in the Big 12 conference.

First, gone are Texas A&M and Missouri—both teams that Tech has struggled with recently and now won’t have to worry about.

Add to this the big name attrition that Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will suffer in the offseason—along with Texas’ continued struggles, and you’ve got a conference that suddenly becomes less top heavy than it was coming into 2011.

The Big 12 won’t be easy to win, but if Tech continues to recruit well, matures and heals over the offseason, what could fly further under the radar than a team that’s never even won the conference?

Somewhere, buried deep down inside of this program, is the team that beat then-No. 3 Oklahoma 41-38 in Norman.

If released, they could be a force to be reckoned with.

Big 10: Iowa

It’s hard to believe that a team that has been as consistent as Iowa has could be a “dark horse” to win the Big Ten.

But, Iowa hasn’t won the conference since 2004 and though they’ve performed well, they’ve never quite lived up to their billing in the years they were expected to be contenders.

The Hawkeyes were expected to rebuild in 2011, which makes the 7-6 finish digestible with the exception of the OT loss to Iowa State and the disgrace of a one-point loss to Minnesota.

What justifies any discussion of “rebuilding,” and pretty much explains Iowa’s 2011 campaign, is experience ratings (via Phil Steele) that had the Hawkeye’s at dead last in the Big Ten and No. 118 (out of 120) nationally.

This is a young team, but one with a statistical resume that shows they are moving in the right direction.

Keeping in mind that Iowa’s stats were earned against a Big Ten slate, No. 58 in points scored (27.5 points per game) and No. 46 in points allowed (23.8 points per game), is nothing to snort at.

What also helps Iowa coming into 2011 is Michigan State’s personnel turnover combined with the fact that Michigan and Nebraska should receive the lion’s share of Legends division media attention.

Iowa could easily start winning big in 2012, and if they do, there might be an aura of “shock and awe.” In reality, their rising maturity, solid foundation and an enviable position on (or under) the radar could make potential surprise look like a bit of an overreaction.

 

Big East: Louisville

It’s still unclear exactly who will be in the Big East for the 2012 football season, but we do know that Louisville will be one of the teams lacing it up regardless of when Syracuse, Pitt and West Virginia finally flee for good.

Louisville’s up and down 7-6 finish in 2011 must be viewed from the perspective of their extreme youth and inexperience.

How green were the Cardinals in 2011?

Well, according the Phil Steele, they were the least experienced team of any squad on this specific list. They were the least experienced team in the Big East, and they were ranked No. 119 nationally in experience.

Yes, only one team in the entire nation was less innocent in 2011 than Louisville, and that was defending national champion Auburn.

Delving further into specific stats, the Cardinals ineffectiveness on offense seems predictable as Louisville returned a mere 29 percent of the athletes responsible for their 2010 yards in 2011.

Louisville is a program that is playing well under highly motivated coach Charlie Strong. If they can gain maturity on the offensive side of the ball to go along with a defense that ranked No. 17 nationally in points allowed, then anything could happen.

And remember—this is a team that finished as co-champions in the Big East this season.

Louisville can win the Big East in 2012, regardless of who is in and who as out, and this means (at least for another year), that they have as good as shot as any team in the nation of making the 2012-13 BCS.

Pac-12: Utah

Utah began the 2012 season celebrating their long awaited ascension into the world of BSC automatic bidding. They were finally no longer hidden behind the shroud of conference inequality.

And this is a gala that, from a national standpoint, all but ended when they dropped their first four Pac-12 conference games and earned a dubious 0-4 record in league play in late October.

Yes, it looked like the Utes would perhaps need another couple of years to play up to the speed of a BCS conference.

This is something that still could have been surmised after Utah reeled off four straight Pac-12 wins over struggling Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA and Washington State in OT. Cap this all off with a 17-14 loss to 3-10 Colorado at home and you certainly don’t have a case for dominance or even hopefulness.

But, peeling back the layers of the onion, we find that Utah was not only a team entering a new level of competition in 2011, they were also a young team doing so.

Utah ranked No. 88 nationally in Phil Steele’s comprehensive experience rankings, and No. 8 in their new league; and these low rankings were no doubt exasperated by the move from the Mountain West to the Pac-12.

Indeed, Wyoming and New Mexico aren’t exactly Cal and USC.

Despite all this, Utah still managed an impressive 8-5 finish—which included a thrilling OT victory over Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl.

And it’s important to note that the Ute’s defense held opponents to 20.2 points per game, earning them the No. 19 national ranking in scoring D.

So, can the Ute’s actually make a run in the Pac-12 in 2012?

Well, if maturity means anything to a stagnant offense and if the defense can keep pace with the 2011 edition or improve, watch out.

The main hurdles standing in Utah’s way will be a USC team, which will be heralded as the next best thing since, well, the Trojans of yore and the potential momentum gained by Pac-12 South teams with new coaches (i.e. Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA).

SEC: Tennessee

It seems that there could be no greater task for the true dark horse than to break through in what continues to be a scary SEC conference.

In 2012, the dominant league will welcome Texas A&M and Missouri to their winning ranks—meaning anyone wanting to make a surprise run will have another league win to worry about before reaching pay dirt.

What is attractive about Tennessee in terms of an unexpected conference championship is at least threefold.

First, and like every other team on this list, they’re relatively young.

Phil Steele had the Vols at No. 7 in the SEC and No. 73 nationally in terms of experience coming into the 2011 season. Add to this a huge dose of injury, and you’ve got a team that will arguably be more mature and healthier in 2012, which can do nothing but help a run in the right direction.

Secondly, you’ve got a team that no one is going to pay a lot of attention to in 2012, simply because they went 1-7 in the SEC and 5-7 overall in 2011.

But, this is a group whose seven losses came to then No. 16 Florida (33-23), Georgia (20-12), No. 1 LSU (38-7), No. 2 Alabama (37-6), No. 13 South Carolina (14-3), No. 8 Arkansas (49-7) and then of course the ugly loss to Kentucky (10-7).

Yes, this is a team that wasn’t beaten by a bunch of no-names or even lower ranked Top 25 squads. These guys played the cream of the crop and faced THE murderer’s row of the SEC West.

Lastly, you’ve got a SEC East picture in 2012 that is intriguing…will it be up-and-coming Georgia (who will no doubt be laden with media coverage), steady South Carolina, who knows Florida or newcomer Missouri?

Why not Tennessee?

Why not a team that is flying so far under the radar whose biggest question will be if Derek Dooley will hold on to his job for another season (a la Dabo Swinney from Clemson)?

Why not a young, injured team who got beat up by the best teams in the nation in 2011? Why not a team who won’t play as hard of a schedule in 2012?

Why not a team that hasn’t won the conference since 1998?

Yes, why not Tennessee?